naplesdave
Registered User
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Loc: Naples, Florida
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It seems to me the weaking called for further down the road (Tuesday to Wednesday), is based on it's assumed interaction with land. If the track were to be 100 or more miles further south it would minimize this interaction. What effect would this have on an intensity forcast if it were to stay south over the caribbean as opposed to scraping over all those mountains? All this assumes it survives it's current problems.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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if Ana goes where it is forcasted to go, in the gulf, what would stop it from developing? TD4 seems to have developed very nicely in a relative short peroid of time, seems like ana would be over warmer SST and have a longer peroid over these waters? and if it did develop back to a TS or even a weak hurricane, poleward movement would drasticly change forecast,correct??just wondering.
well i agree with what your saying, however, while the gulf is condusive for development, i dont think the forecast track is going to give ana enough body of water to strengthen. but thats based on its track as of right now. one think i noticed is clark evans intensity plot seemed to have the agencies split in the middle for development back into a TS and maybe a hurricane 3 or 4 days out. so im not entirely sure. what i am sure of, is florida will feel it. its just a matter of how bad. this might end up like another fay.
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gatorman
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latest IR shows ana may be starting back up? i think im seeing a slight rotation, any chances this may form back into TD or TS? looks like this one may have more room for development than claudette did? anyone have any thoughts on this??
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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thats what the latest ir forecast shows. it shows it fireing up back into a TD. interesting to say in the least. personally, the ditched ana the first time around and brought it back and now ditched it again. needless to say i wouldnt be surprised to see it form into a TD once more.
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hogrunr
Weather Guru
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Loc: Spring, TX
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The says in their 8pm ET , that the remnants of Ana don't show any signs of reorganizing...how is that possible? The restarting of circulation seems pretty obvious from the IR satellite.
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