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Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More [Re: craigm]
      #86063 - Sat Aug 15 2009 01:32 PM

Of far lesser importance, we are getting some nice squalls here, coming into S. Florida. Northern axis of this tropical wave is really starting to look a little more interesting to me. Key West radar appears to indicate a week mid to low level circulation. Given light upper air and continued bursting, I think some in the N. Gulf coast might be surprised to see NHC discuss this feature with little more interest later today/evening. Assuming persistance ( and climotology ), it would not seem out of the question for a depression to spin up in the E. Central Gulf. It certainly could be transient and all just go away, especially given how small this feature is. Would be much more susceptible to light shear ( ala T.S. Ana ). Only difference here perhaps, is that the gulf may have less shear than what Ana is dealing with, and given this wave's small signiture, it certainly wouldn't take as long to spin up, as its "Eastern Atlantic cousin".

Not to suggest anything dramatic here, given proximity to land, but could get people's attention.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More [Re: weathernet]
      #86064 - Sat Aug 15 2009 01:36 PM

TD#3 is really starting to spin. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
I think we have Bill.

Edited by ftlaudbob (Sat Aug 15 2009 01:37 PM)


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 418
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #86065 - Sat Aug 15 2009 01:38 PM

TD#3 is very impressive looking. Are we expecting a major Hurricane out of "Bill"?

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 492
Loc: Tampa
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More [Re: weathernet]
      #86066 - Sat Aug 15 2009 01:55 PM

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE ADJACENT
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THIS AREA...
AND ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #86067 - Sat Aug 15 2009 01:59 PM

2:00 EDT NHC comments regarding GOM wave

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. RECENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THIS WAVE. THE 15/1200 UTC QUIKSCAT
PASS INDICATES WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW NEAR THIS WAVE...WITH E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND E WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITHIN 120 W
OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 19N. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N84W AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THIS UPPER LOW TO 11N82W.

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More [Re: WeatherNut]
      #86068 - Sat Aug 15 2009 02:06 PM

The structure of Ana is questionable now. The LLC has been exposed on the west of the convection for about 4 hours. Shear is from the wsw ahead of it, and that is usually more difficult for a system than shear from the east or south east. Lets see what the planes tell us.

--------------------
doug


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mwillis
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More [Re: doug]
      #86069 - Sat Aug 15 2009 02:09 PM

Quote:

The structure of Ana is questionable now. The LLC has been exposed on the west of the convection for about 4 hours. Shear is from the wsw ahead of it, and that is usually more difficult for a system than shear from the east or south east. Lets see what the planes tell us.





Is it just me or does Ana seem to be moving a little north, OR is TD3 moving a little south, check this visible loop,

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

Look at a close up of TD3 COC
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...00908130845.GIF

Edited by mwillis (Sat Aug 15 2009 02:19 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More [Re: mwillis]
      #86071 - Sat Aug 15 2009 02:23 PM

very interested in the Key West wave.. watchin pressures in the SE GOM... if it can get away from the ULL to its SSW.. and i see the 2pm TWO has mention of turning.. we may get a quick spinn up on this tropical wave.. what i don't like... the direction its going, the water is warmer... nothern GOM is in the upper 80's... up here near the phndl of Florida. Fuel for fire! Ana... got a lot to overcome... that shear is taking its toll. TD3 is growing and getting better organized. we got time to watch them

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 380
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More [Re: doug]
      #86072 - Sat Aug 15 2009 02:28 PM

The Convection in Ana has never been nearly as impressive as the overall circulation of the system. Looks to me like some dry air ahead of it and TD3 siphoning moisture off the back end. I just can't see how this thing is going to turn into anything major (although I am NOT making predictions...). I am wondering if it might go back and forth from TS to TD as it progresses in this environment? It is probably amazing that it had enough to regenerate to where it is now.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4474
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #86075 - Sat Aug 15 2009 02:53 PM

I updated the main page article, in short I think Ana will take the southern trek, as long as it remains relatively weak. I don't have the best confidence in that, however. The shear has exposed Ana's center again too.

The wave near the Keys is worth watching when it gets into the Gulf, and TD#3's forecast track looks good to me.

Also there are going to be some research flights out into Ana, so we'll have some better than usual data for it for tomorrow.



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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown [Re: MikeC]
      #86077 - Sat Aug 15 2009 03:00 PM

I would be surprised if a 00Z CMC/ECMWF blend were to succeed.

Evaluating the sigma levels I do not see where these models are deriving their impetus in causing that much beta motion between 72 and 120 hours, particularly when the steering field remains so longitudinal in orientation. Beginning at this latitude and having virtually no weakness in the ridge modeled out through 144 or so hours, I don't see where that much polar-ward motion is actually going to come from.

I'm considering these models the less likely outliers until I find a reason that fits.

That said, the 12Z CMC did come a tad further west of the 00Z fixes.

I believe everyone from the northern Gulf Coast to Maine needs to be paying attention to the tropics/outlooks over the course of the next week to 10 days.

Ana is tough one to call. I am wondering if her small size has the models only vaguely aware of the system's presence. The U/A wind shows a relaxed shear, yet convection struggles at the current hour. WV imagery suggest pretty strongly that the culprit is a few gulps of dry air. This may continue (...and continue to baffle the models) until she grows (if and when) in size and contains her own environment at the core. She's just not big enough to produce that inward environment just yet.

I believe the difference in the track guidance in why Ana winds up in the Gulf and "Bill" ends up along the East Coast or headed for England is because of scale of development - the weaker systems are reliant on lower level steering.


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #86079 - Sat Aug 15 2009 03:25 PM

I shouldn't say that I'm surprised..but..I am a wee bit baffled (well not really)

Ana - She's got so much going against her (sheer to her west and dry air entrainment and TD#3 "stealing" what little moisture she's got available to her) that it's a wonder how she continues to just (barely) hang in there. I am not surprised though that NHC is hedging on the side of prudence and caution with her...keeps those in the nearest "line of fire" on their toes...what with TD#3 hot on her heels. Folks need to keep their guard up and not let it down until the possible threat passes.

As for the wave located near the Keys...that one (IMHO) should be getting some attention (at the very least) from the local mets anywhere along the Northen GOM for several reasons. (1) Most "everyday" folks are watching Ana & TD#3 and not even aware of the potential threat this other wave could pose. (2) The GOM's SSTs are almost unbelievable...a giant pool of rocket fuel, if you will. While I realize the closer that wave "hugs" land along with a whole other myriad of factors, the more inhibitated it is for formation but...the closer in, the shallower waters are that much warmer. I only hope that folks in and around the Northern GOM area are aware and educated enough not to just blow it off...be prepared..better safe than sorry right?

Speaking of better safe than sorry...I'll add this here (although may not be the right forum, MODS feel free to move) I did note early this year here on the "blog" of the start of the season a "list" of supplies etc..I noted that something I always have on hand that was not on that "list". It is a First Aid Kit.

5pm update(s)/discussion(s) should prove to be interesting. Should answer a few speculative questions as to NHC's thinking on Ana at the very least.


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown [Re: native]
      #86080 - Sat Aug 15 2009 03:55 PM

Here in N. Miami Dade & Broward County, we are getting some training effect and some fairly intense squalls with very heavy rain. To me, radar is starting to look as if multiple rain bands are forming, though I see no obvious evidence of any center of circulation. Meanwhile, latest vis. satellite does seem to clearly show a center point of turning off of the lower Keys. Whole center point of this top axis of wave seems to be very slowly moving NW

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown [Re: weathernet]
      #86081 - Sat Aug 15 2009 04:21 PM

TD3 - I'll preface this post that way to avoid confusion- a lot going on
Following up on an earlier post I made TD3 needs to fight off dry air in its northern half which it seems to be doing. Once this moisture wraps all the way around the heat transferring mechanics should really kick in. I'd give it another 24hours then we should see CDO developing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown [Re: craigm]
      #86082 - Sat Aug 15 2009 04:38 PM

NHC is now named TD3 Bill...as if there was any doubt

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 418
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown [Re: craigm]
      #86083 - Sat Aug 15 2009 04:38 PM

We now have "Bill" officially from the NHC - "DVORAK T-NUMBERS
HAVE INCREASED AND SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM
STATUS WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS."


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown [Re: craigm]
      #86084 - Sat Aug 15 2009 04:38 PM

NHC has Bill at the 5:00.

Haven't seen any speculation on what impact Ana might have on lowering SSTs for Bill...they are on fairly similar paths??

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown [Re: Ed in Va]
      #86085 - Sat Aug 15 2009 04:56 PM

Quote:

NHC has Bill at the 5:00.

Haven't seen any speculation on what impact Ana might have on lowering SSTs for Bill...they are on fairly similar paths??





I don't think Ana will be strong enough to have any affect on the SST's.That takes a fairly strong cane to really affect the SST's.

Most models build Bill to a major cane down the road,need to keep a close eye on this one in the coming week.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 158
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #86086 - Sat Aug 15 2009 05:03 PM

I'm not too worried about Ana, at least for the short term. It's still struggling to survive, and will be for awhile I think. Bill is more worriesome, but that's still a ways off. Closer to home, that Tropical Wave near the Keys appears to have a well defined low level circulation, according to the latest visible satellite images. I think we could have a system trying hard to spin up in a hurry here, say reminiscent of Humberto the other year. Finally, big tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa with a lot of convection firing up around it. Will have to see how everything goes, but I think the potential is there to go from nothing to four tropical cyclones within one week.

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown [Re: JoshuaK]
      #86089 - Sat Aug 15 2009 05:41 PM

History has Bill swimming with the fishes, as there are only 4 similarly located August TSs that made landfall in the U.S. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200903_climo.html#a_topad

However, the 1893 one is only one of two canes ever to hit NYC directly http://nymag.com/nymetro/news/people/columns/intelligencer/12908/

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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