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Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: mwillis]
      #86116 - Sat Aug 15 2009 09:46 PM

Quote:

Look west of fort myers in GOM, Im seeing a fairly well defined center of circulation. Any thoughts.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes




I'm looking at a zoom-in of the Tampa radar, at the apparent LLC forming.
I can't write my "thoughts", but I'll give you the family-friendly version: ut-oh!
I don't believe I've ever seen anything ramp up quite this fast.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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mwillis
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: Hugh]
      #86117 - Sat Aug 15 2009 09:47 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Look west of fort myers in GOM, Im seeing a fairly well defined center of circulation. Any thoughts.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes




I'm looking at a zoom-in of the Tampa radar, at the apparent LLC forming.
I can't write my "thoughts", but I'll give you the family-friendly version: ut-oh!
I don't believe I've ever seen anything ramp up quite this fast.




Wonder how long it will take NHC to notice it

Looks like COC is moving NW

Edited by mwillis (Sat Aug 15 2009 09:49 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: mwillis]
      #86118 - Sat Aug 15 2009 09:51 PM

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

very amazing to watch... wish i had two computers ... definitely some center but not sure on where and if it's mid level or what, would like more info

as for bill.. he is finally crankin

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: mwillis]
      #86119 - Sat Aug 15 2009 09:52 PM

Quote:

Quote:


I'm looking at a zoom-in of the Tampa radar, at the apparent LLC forming.
I can't write my "thoughts", but I'll give you the family-friendly version: ut-oh!
I don't believe I've ever seen anything ramp up quite this fast.




Wonder how long it will take NHC to notice it
Looks like COC is moving NW




You read my mind

Seriously, if the current trend continues I would not be surprised if they pulled the trigger within the hour. If not then, at 2am or 5am IF the current trend continues. It could fall apart overnight. The thought of waking up to a tropical storm warning is not exactly comforting.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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mwillis
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: LoisCane]
      #86120 - Sat Aug 15 2009 09:52 PM

Quote:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

very amazing to watch... wish i had two computers ... definitely some center but not sure on where and if it's mid level or what, would like more info

as for bill.. he is finally crankin




The COC is really getting organized by the minute, its stunning how fast this thing is coming together, whatever it is

I hope it does fall apart, giving the high SST's I doubt it

Starting to see the southern quadrant of the COC start to band:(
\Any thoughts?

Local office severe thunderstorm warning for brevard county
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.


Edited by mwillis (Sat Aug 15 2009 09:58 PM)


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Hurikid
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 14
Loc: Barbados
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: scottsvb]
      #86124 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:05 PM

Bill on the other hand is thriving. Strong tropical storm IMO by tomorrow if this continues.

Wonder if I should continue monitoring this, I'm from Barbados after all and I don't think we're out of the woods yet


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mwillis
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: Hurikid]
      #86126 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:07 PM

Quote:

Bill on the other hand is thriving. Strong tropical storm IMO by tomorrow if this continues.

Wonder if I should continue monitoring this, I'm from Barbados after all and I don't think we're out of the woods yet




Im more worried about this circulation off Ft Myers rapidly getting better organized

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=tbw&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no


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gordonfink
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 6
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: mwillis]
      #86130 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:15 PM

A few years back, Charley rapidly intensified, and scared the poop out of us west coasters.

With that said, are you folks really afraid of a tropical storm? I you folks will probably flame away, but TS's move through all the time. A day of rain, some wind, usually both of which come through in bands, with sunshine in between.

It's fun to watch, maybe, but I can't imagine a TS has everyone all wound up.

Edited by gordonfink (Sat Aug 15 2009 10:16 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: gordonfink]
      #86131 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:17 PM

Quote:

It's fun to watch, maybe, but I can't imagine a TS has everyone all wound up.




It's the lack of notice that has everyone wound up... the rapid.... very rapid... intensification.
If it went from nothing to this this quickly, what could happen next?

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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gordonfink
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 6
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: Hugh]
      #86134 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:21 PM

if it winds up like Charley did, then yeah, it's real scary. I don't take chances with my family after that experience. We went form thinking a CAT 1 would hit us, to living with a 3/4. No fun.

However, tropical storms are not that big of a deal to live through.

As for warning - the news media lives for this stuff. There is plenty of warning. Here in the Tampa Bay area, the local mets were saying yesterday that their models expected for this to be a TS in the panhandle by weekend's end.

I will say this, though. We have lots of dead growth on trees and such around the Tampa Bay area, that has accumulated over the past five years or so. A strong tropical storm will no doubt cause some damage around here from that.

Edited by gordonfink (Sat Aug 15 2009 10:24 PM)


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: mwillis]
      #86135 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:22 PM

I think it would be a mistake if the NHC didn't try to spread the word about this storm. This has the potential to strengthen like Charley (not intensity, rather the speed that it intensifies). Buoy 42003 is reporting a water temp of 87, and buoy 42013 is showing 86 degrees. Here, our water temp is 88. I am definitely not trying to be an alarmist, but I do think it would be prudent for the NHC to put a T.S watch up for the West coast and panhandle of FL.

Also, with all due respect Gordonfink, I don't think it's fair to call us flamers. In fact, if you visit any other weather hobbyist sites I'm sure that you will agree that this site is one of the very few that keep the flaming to a minimum

--------------------
Matt


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4474
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: gordonfink]
      #86137 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:23 PM

Model wise, 91L is only going to be over water for around 18 hours, max according to GFS and some other models. This means it may get a shot to become a Tropical Depression, but it just means some rain. If it had two days it could get some strength, but it's moving too fast.

At this point, most you are going to get is some rain and a little bit of wind, but not too bad. Not enough time otherwise.
Landfall Where at? Around Al/FL most likely.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: MikeC]
      #86138 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:27 PM

Quote:

Model wise, 91L is only going to be over water for around 18 hours, max according to GFS and some other models. This means it may get a shot to become a Tropical Depression, but it just means some rain. If it had two days it could get some strength, but it's moving too fast.
At this point, most you are going to get is some rain and a little bit of wind, but not too bad. Not enough time otherwise.
Landfall Where at? Around Al/FL most likely.




There are numerous of examples of storms that have strengthened rapidly in this area, Mike.
Not saying this won't be more than a depression or a minimal storm, but to write it off as nothing more than maybe a depression is premature.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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gordonfink
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 6
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: chase 22]
      #86140 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:30 PM

I agree with you - This is a great site, and is extremely useful. I just figured I'd get roasted for saying TS's aren't too scary.

Anything more than that, and you have to be on your toes (unless you live in a mobile home).

Edited by gordonfink (Sat Aug 15 2009 10:31 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4474
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: Hugh]
      #86141 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:31 PM

Quote:


There are numerous of examples of storms that have strengthened rapidly in this area, Mike.
Not saying this won't be more than a depression or a minimal storm, but to write it off as nothing more than maybe a depression is premature.




It should be watched closely, and it has the fuel there, I remember Humberto in 2007, so it can happen, but it really doesn't have the time. Although a strengthening system can be a worry even when it's minimal. Systems like this can develop rapidly over this hot of water, that is important, but overreacting can be worse.

That said. Watch this for the unexpected.

Here are Radar Links in the Area

Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Miami FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Melbourne FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Tallahassee FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: MikeC]
      #86142 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:34 PM

Quote:


It should be watched closely, and it has the fuel there, I remember Humberto in 2007, so it can happen, but it really doesn't have the time. Although a strengthening system can be a worry even when it's minimal. Systems like this can develop rapidly over this hot of water, that is important, but overreacting can be worse.




You do have a point there. It looks to me as if it could already be a depression, though. I have not seen bouy information so I don't know what the winds are. Rapidly moving systems are bad too because they add the forward motion to the relative wind speed. It's going to be more than just your average Sunday afternoon thunderboomer, I think, but hopefully not MUCH more.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2163
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: Hugh]
      #86143 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:35 PM

Invest 91L right now is all bark and no bite.

These kinds of disturbances are really easy to get worked up about, because they look so impressive on satellite and/or radar, but where it counts, they lack substance. At present, there is no sign of an improving/consolidating/tightening surface circulation (not even sure if one still exists - there is no clear evidence of a closed surface circulation tonight, as there had been earlier in the day), and pressures are actually rising.

Given the environment, 91L may very well become a numbered cyclone before shoving into land, but as already mentioned, time is probably its worst enemy, and the conditions for further development are not even close to Charley-like.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: Hugh]
      #86144 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:39 PM

You have not seen buoy information because there are no buoys near the COC. The nearest one is up near Sarasota. I checked ship data, none to be found near there.

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gordonfink
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 6
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: Hugh]
      #86145 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:39 PM

Hugh - since you are up that way, I hope it is nothing. I worry about Ana missing land, and landing in the Gulf. That could crank up once it gets there, and head your way, if it makes it that long.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: gordonfink]
      #86146 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:41 PM

Quote:

Hugh - since you are up that way, I hope it is nothing. I worry about Ana missing land, and landing in the Gulf. That could crank up once it gets there, and head your way, if it makes it that long.




Yep, and Bill could follow behind Ana. Or, none of them could hit here. Just too early to tell.

But, the forecast is not comforting right now.

Random Chaos: Ah... well, I meant I hadn't looked for buoy information.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 15 2009 10:42 PM)


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