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MikeCAdministrator
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Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday
      #86388 - Wed Aug 19 2009 06:57 AM

11AM EDT 22 Aug 2009 Update
Cat II Bill is now heading north and slowly weakening and with an anticipated turn to the northeast, Bill could brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday. Environmental Canada has issued appropriate warnings. NHC has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for eastern Massachusetts for this evening/tonight as follows:

"A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET."

During last night and through this morning the winds at Hamilton, Bermuda, have been steady at about 40mph with gusts to 55mph. Late yesterday evening, Commissioners Point reported a wind gust to 97mph.

The wave in the eastern Atlantic remains disorganized.
ED

5 PM EDT 21 Aug 2009 Update
Bill has weakened to a Category 2 hurricane, and is bringing winds and rain to Bermuda tonight. Bill is still in very good conditions for development and appears to be going through an eyewall replacement cycle, it could restrengthen again before hitting cooler waters.\

Bill is no longer expected to affect New England with winds, but Canada must remain watch. The possibility of recurving out to sea without landfall is also once again high.

In the east Atlantic we are watching a wave that has a <30% chance to develop over the next few days, no invest designation has been placed on this area as of yet.

4 PM EDT 20 Aug 2009 Update
A hurricane Watch is now up for the islands of Bermuda.

Bermuda Radar
Bermuda Weather Service Webcam Recording
Current Weather at Hamilton

8 AM EDT 20 Aug 2009 Update
Bill has weakened somewhat overnight, but is expected to restrengthen as shear lessens.

Tomorrow conditions are complex so it could gain or lose some strength depending on how much the trough interacts with it.

Most likely it will not landfall in New England, but it is by no means totally conifdent in that. The chances for landfall, although less, are still there.

The forecast track still keeps it offshore, but Cape Cod and parts of New England (Ie Boston/Cape Cod, northward) are going to be very close to it and need to watch it. Landfall in Canada still seems the most likely.


Today and Tomorrow may be stressful for those trying to determine what will happen, especially in the case of a large storm with the edge of the cone in your area, but most models are pulling it right quickly. Some, such as the GFS move it further west.

Original Update
Hurricane BIll strengthened into a category four hurricane overnight, with 135MPH winds. It may be a bit stronger than that, but determination will have to wait until another Aircraft recon gets there.

Bill likely will stay strong for the next two days until it begins to weaken.

All indicators are that Bill will stay offshore of the United States, with a small chance that it could affect extreme eastern portions of Massachusetts. Still, the most likely outcome is that it stays far enough out to sea that I think Bermuda should have more concern than that. The Eastern Canadian Provinces have a good chance, though, for a landfall from Bill. Although it should be weaker that it is now at that time, it still will be fairly strong. See the Canadian Hurricane Centre



In short, New England needs to watch for Changes, Newfoundland in Canada really needs to pay attention, it could still be hurricane strength when it approaches there.

The remnants of Ana are beginning to affect Florida now with extra rain.

Outside of that, the last wave off Africa fell apart, but there is always a chance the next one could form. Outside of that, there is nothing else going on at the moment.

Key West Florida Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Miami Florida Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Melbourne Florida Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Tampa Florida Radar Loop (Latest Static)



Bill Event Related Links


float3latest.gif stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2009&storm=3 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Bill
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Bill


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Bill (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Bill (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Bill

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Bill
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Bill -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 22 2009 11:23 AM)


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berserkr
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Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: MikeC]
      #86389 - Wed Aug 19 2009 07:05 AM

first reply first reply!!

this thang is gettin interestin now. it's the little thangs that count, and pull it all together to make sense of the big picture. i'm thankin Bill has a high probability to become a strong storm, perhaps a formidible hurricane to be dealt with. if it doesn't curve into the cone of certainty, people could be in trouble somewhere. thats about all i can say about Bill at the moment, but more to come later as i get a better feel for the storm. most likely i will update this post as time goes on so as not to confuse anyone. thanks for the hard work guys... you make my forecasting job a lot easier. two thumbs up, way to go!


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: berserkr]
      #86391 - Wed Aug 19 2009 10:27 AM

I find it extremely quiet around here. With a Cat 4 storm heading northwest in the Atlantic, not far from the islands and the cone touching land on it's west side... not sure if there is an over reliance on models or what?

A Category 4 in the Atlantic after a somewhat dud season is to me exciting and always an educational experience.

And ... late August is tricky for a Cape Verde Storm ...this is not Sept 19th when they are a bit more predictable.

Just my thoughts.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Dynamics very fluid and that new upper level low to the west of the old one is really digging...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Tropicbird
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Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: LoisCane]
      #86392 - Wed Aug 19 2009 11:00 AM

I'm watching, especially since I'm supposed to start driving to Nova Scotia tomorrow and arrive by Aug 26.

Looking at the water vapor loop you posted Lois, why is he not going more north already? Although it looks like he is starting to gain latitude and heading towards the ULL to his N-NW. Maybe I don't know enough about how to read the WV, or about how hurricanes interact with ULL's.


TropicBird
(longtime lurker)


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doug
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Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: LoisCane]
      #86393 - Wed Aug 19 2009 12:19 PM

movement to wnw. Lois, that is a very deep amplitude trough digging in to the west. No reason to believe that will erode. Bill is out to sea.
eds

--------------------
doug


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Beach
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Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: doug]
      #86394 - Wed Aug 19 2009 01:28 PM

So the 1022 high pressure off the coast of NC will not effect it's movement?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html


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gatorman
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Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: Beach]
      #86395 - Wed Aug 19 2009 02:06 PM

in almost every statement issued, in the past couple of days, the NHC has predicted a more northward turn. are they just that confused about the path, or have conditions changed?

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sailor
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Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: Beach]
      #86396 - Wed Aug 19 2009 02:33 PM

I think Beach is right on . That system may be just enough to delay Bill's turn and as a result Cape Cod may be in Bill's path.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: sailor]
      #86397 - Wed Aug 19 2009 02:38 PM

Actually Bill is a little more east than the NHC's forecast track from yesterday morning. But all in all it's been following the NHC's track fairly well. If you use the actual degree motion it also matches up well.


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LoisCane
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Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: MikeC]
      #86398 - Wed Aug 19 2009 02:47 PM

A lot of interesting data being gone over from the planes...

Storm has dry air even though he handles it well..

The front is still a question mark as to how strong..

And we have moved from a hurricane cruising by Cape Cod to being just barely in the cone...

Nova Scotia is in Bill's path...

We are far from watching a hurricane curve out to sea peacefully...

http://flhurricane.com/sbanimator.php?year=2009&storm=3

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: sailor]
      #86399 - Wed Aug 19 2009 03:01 PM

While it is still very likely to miss the U.S. directly, nobody in New England should be turning their back on Bill right now. The developing upper-level trough will act like a brick wall that will keep Bill from making it very far west, but the exact evolution of the trough is yet to be determined. The extent to which the trough deepens and the timing of shortwave troughs ejecting from the main trough will determine whether Bill gets tugged on more of a northerly path, making a closer approach to the U.S., or gets shoved off more to the northeast away from the coast. The recent tendency of the models to nudge the track further west is a little worrisome, though the reliable models still send Bill somewhere into the Canadian maritimes.

Cape Cod, Nantucket, and parts of the Maine coast are all in the 5-day NHC forecast cone, so people in those areas should have a plan and be ready to put it into effect on short notice. Bill has a large circulation, so even without a direct hit, a more westerly approach could cause tropical storm force winds to affect the New England coast. Keep in mind, though, that by the time Bill gets caught up in the trough and begins to accelerate, the west side of the system will be much weaker than the east side, which could spare New England some problems. A more westerly approach would also likely cause more of a significant direct hit somewhere in the Canadian maritimes, rather than a glancing blow in those areas.


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #86400 - Wed Aug 19 2009 03:08 PM

Agree with you about not letting guard down...NOGAPS shows a very close call.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cg...;hour=Animation

I know the western side is always weaker, but but wonder why that it gets even weaker when caught up in a trough??

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Fairhopian
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Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: Ed in Va]
      #86401 - Wed Aug 19 2009 03:15 PM

I know this question gets posed fairly regularly, but I would appreciate it if someone would remind me of those attributes or conditions which might enable a hurricane to more or less "control its own destiny." Thanks!

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MichaelA
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Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: Ed in Va]
      #86403 - Wed Aug 19 2009 03:47 PM

Quote:

I know the western side is always weaker, but but wonder why that it gets even weaker when caught up in a trough??


In a word? Shear. The upper level wind flow ahead of an advancing trough is from SW to NE. As a storm moves into and in response to that, it gets tilted out of the vertical.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS


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MichaelA
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Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: Ed in Va]
      #86404 - Wed Aug 19 2009 03:56 PM

The NGP seems to be the most westward leaning model at the moment, but not by very far. The rest are really pretty tight and in agreement a little more to the East. Cape Cod and the New England coastal areas need to keep a very wary eye on Bill. Any wobble to the West could be devastating. The WV sat loops, show a very complex pattern over the NW Atlantic right now. I'm assuming that the large trough over the mid-US is what will be the predicted steering mechanism as it moves eastward over the next couple of days. All in all, Bil is a very impressive system to watch.

Here is an animated gif from OSEI: Bill

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

Edited by MichaelA (Wed Aug 19 2009 04:01 PM)


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doug
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Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: MichaelA]
      #86405 - Wed Aug 19 2009 04:01 PM

When I said Bill was out to sea a bit ago, I did not mean everybody should take the rest of the week off and forget about it. Not at all. But the overall evolving picture suggests that solution. This is playing out ,as Mike pointed out, in the fact that Bill is further east than the forecast points, and the fact that the trough off the east coast is digging south and that has not abated.
I think it is a very good chance that the east coast of the U.S. will be spared from this monster. thanks.

--------------------
doug


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: doug]
      #86406 - Wed Aug 19 2009 04:41 PM

re: control its own destiny

imagine would be the high aloft above such a powerful storm gives it more powers than a regular storm to control its own destiny .... we often like to think of hurricanes poetically more than scientifically

not sure if that is what you meant

regarding TRCbill.gif... can anyone remember a storm that looked as much like this over this area..

tail touches landmass of south america...
amazing

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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doug
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Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: LoisCane]
      #86407 - Wed Aug 19 2009 05:01 PM

Hello Lois:
I think you were responding to Fairhopian and yes that is the idea. These large powerful storms do generate their own area of higher pressure aloft as the clockwise outflow diffuses the air away from the system and often they can literally shove smaller features aside or absorb them. They dominate thousands of square miles of space. But they still respond to the genearal laws of physics. What can change sometimes unseen is the atmosphere being in gaseous form can suddenly change hundreds of miles from where the storm actually is and alter the whole dynamic. That is why nothing is etched in stone, ever, with these systems.

--------------------
doug


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LoisCane
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Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: doug]
      #86408 - Wed Aug 19 2009 05:10 PM

Well said Doug. Often though people use that to believe it will do whatever it wants... giving it a sort of soul, in truth its dynamics and often the high just reinforces the current pattern but sometimes...over time... have seen some crazy things happen that were later attributed to it "making its own weather" and yet...all part of the overall stream of atmospheric conditions.

amazing, truly... to watch it all unfold.

and a slight variation in path over a part of a day can extrapolate into big distances over the longer term of the forecast

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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craigm
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Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: Fairhopian]
      #86409 - Wed Aug 19 2009 05:34 PM

Quote:

I know this question gets posed fairly regularly, but I would appreciate it if someone would remind me of those attributes or conditions which might enable a hurricane to more or less "control its own destiny." Thanks!



I would like to chime in on this one. I have asked myself the same question and my very unscientific conclusion is that as impressive as Bill is his energy pales in comparison to a polar trough, which is what is eroding the ridge. Strong Hurricanes can affect their immediate surroundings but as far as affecting fluid dynamics in an entire Hemisphere, which is what the models work with, I don't think that is possible. In the past decade I have only seen the NHC get more accurate especially with the 3 day cone. Trust the cone young skywalker.

BTW next piece of energy is emerging off of Africa
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist

Edited by craigm (Wed Aug 19 2009 06:01 PM)


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