CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Since I last posted last week, Tropical Cyclone '3C' has formed in a monsoon trough ESE of the Hawaiian Islands that assumed the form of a cyclonic gyre (see my previous post for a description and the evolution of the cyclonic gyre and the formative processes leading to cyclogenesis).
From a recent visible animated satellite loop showing Major Cat 3 Hurricane 'Neki' at 100 Knot Intensity, WSW of the Hawaiian Islands slowing and on the verge of recurvature ...
(Note the Hawaiian Islands, in orange, to the right the steadily intensfying cyclone.)
The 11am Hawaii time (5pm EDT) Advisory came out about an hour ago, upgrading Hurricane 'Neki' (which sounds uncomfortably like 'Iniki', a Cat 4 storm that devastated Kauai in 1992) to MAJOR Cat 3 Status and at the same time revised the existing watches and officially issued the first hurricane warnings for portions of the 'Leeward Hawaiian Islands', as shown in the following map ...
Quote:
AT 1100 AM HST, A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
THE HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Another, 'Island Centered' view, showing Hurricane 'Neki' sliding into the picture from the left, as it slows and begins to show hints of recurvature ...
The big questions are ... How soon will recurvature begin (an easterly component in the direction of forward movement) and how *much* will 'Neki' eventually recurve?
>> More analysis and illustrations forthcoming ...
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Edited by CoconutCandy (Wed Oct 21 2009 06:59 PM)
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CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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First the good news. Hurricane NEKI has continued a mostly northward trajectory, keeping it well west of the main Hawaiian Islands. The impact to our local weather will be minimal, with a light southeasterly flow over the western islands, but with strong stable ridging aloft, showers will be spotty and light at best.
Now the bad news. Although slightly down from a peak of 105 knots about 12 hours ago and despite bucking 20 Knots plus of SW'erly shear, Hurricane NEKI is still packing a good 90 knots as she bears down on the "Leeward Hawaiian Islands" of Nihoa, Necker, the French Frigate Shoals, the Gardner Pinnacles and, to a lesser extent, Maro.
This area hasn't seen the likes of anything like NEKI in quite a few years, and I hate to think the impact she'll have on this fragile ecosystem of shoals and reefs and lagoons with it's native and endemic fish and sea life (monk seals, native bird populations, etc.) and all the highly fragile coral reefs. Hurricanes have a tendency to extract a severe toll in shallow waters with scouring and other effects. Not to mention what she'll do to these spendid sandy coastlines. Sure, these little isles are frequently buffeted by storms and high surf during the winter months, but a direct hurricane passage from the south is quite another matter entirely.
But at least Kauai or Oahu, or any of the other Islands, are not hunkering down at this minute under Cat 2 hurricane conditions, as would be the case if NEKI were located to it's east about 400 or 500 miles from where she is presently churning the open ocean.
The system doesn't look nearly as symmetrical as 24 hours ago, due to a stiff 20 plus knots of vertical wind shear from the SW, disrupting the eyewall circulation, now open to the SW, and inducing an elongated SW to NE distorted shape as NEKI continues plodding to the north at less than 10 knots, soon to begin a slow recurvature towards the right and gradual acceleration.
It's great that NEKI didn't recurve sooner and/or more sharply, as this would have brought it closer to Kauai, which has really took the brunt of hurricanes in the past, Iwa in '82 and more recently Cat 4 Iniki in '92, to name but a few.
But the deep tropics of the Central Pacific remain at least 1C above normal and El Nino conditions are apparently strengthening even further, so I'd have to say we are in a sort of 'peak hurricane season' here in the Central Pacific well into December.
For more info regarding that, click the link below, emphasizing the possibility of continuing tropical cyclone development for months to come.
NOAA Prepares Citizens in Hawaii for Possible El Nino Impacts
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