vpbob21
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ohio
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The Philippines dodged a major bullet last week with Typhoon Lupit, which turned away and recurved just before reaching Luzon Island, and possibly averting what could have been a major catastrophe. However, as is often the case in this cyclone-plagued part of the earth, we can look to the east and see the next big storm coming over the horizon.
TD #23W was upgraded to a 35 kt. tropical storm this morning and it remains at that intensity as it is passing through the Northern Marianas. It passed very close to the island of Rota a few hours ago and is now moving away from the islands. Rota had a pressure of 996 mb and winds gusting to over 55 mph as the storm passed by. The next name on the Western Pacific list would be Mirinae.
(Edit: As of 2100z storm has been upgraded to Typhoon Mirinae, with 65 kt. winds)
Tropical Storm 23W is moving steadily WNW, but is expected to turn more westward as strong ridging builds to the north. With low wind shear, excellent outflow and very warm SST's ahead of it, 23W is expected to undergo rapid intensification and be at least a 115 kt. (132 mph) typhoon as it moves into central Luzon in about 4 days.
Of course a lot can happen in the next 4 days, but it looks like this storm is in a much more predictable steering flow (rather than the weak steering flow that Lupit was in) and the Philippines need to start preparing for another major storm.
Edited by vpbob21 (Tue Oct 27 2009 10:02 PM)
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vpbob21
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
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Mirinae took it somewhat easy on the Philippines, at least compared to previous storms Ketsana and Parma. It peaked out at about 90 kts, well under the 115 kts originally predicted, and weakened to about 80-85 kts. prior to landfall. The storm passed very close to Manila, and they got just barely tropical storm force winds. There were some deaths, but it wasn't nearly as bad as it could have been. Still, a search for news reports reveals images of considerable damage as well as large parts of towns under water. The town of Santa Cruz in Laguna Province looks especially hard hit. I'm sure for some of these people it is the third or fourth time they have been flooded out of their homes in the past couple months.
Mirinae is weakening under unfavorable conditions in the South China Sea, moving a little south of due west. It will make landfall in southern Vietnam in about a day, and it might not even be a TS by then.
Out to the east is another strong invest (97W) at about 15/132, or about 735 miles east of Manila. This system has really increased in organization over the past 12 hours, and is showing some good outflow as well as some spiral banding. It has been given a "fair" chance by the to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours, which I guess would roughly equate to a code "orange" on the graphics. It is moving pretty quickly to the west, and I don't know if it has time to develop into much more than a weak TS before it runs into the same unfavorable conditions that are battering TS Mirinae. It is heading in the general direction of Luzon though, and this is an area that just doesn't need any more rain.
Beyond that there is a wave crossing the dateline at about 5N, and though not yet an invest, it will need to be watched.
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