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Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Administrative Note [Re: JFV25]
      #87079 - Wed Nov 04 2009 07:58 PM

To the contrary, this has been a wonderful hurricane season. With three fewer landfalling storms it would have been even better. What kind of things would you have enjoyed talking about. Wasn't it great that Claudette was not a hurricane when it made landfall in the Florida panhandle? Or how about Fred becoming a Major Hurricane but not hitting any land area - now that is exciting to me - and wonderful too!

There is nothing exciting about a potential hurricane hitting a nation with flooding, mudslides and the deadly consequenses that would result. I would hope that 2010 would bring us nothing of significance to talk about, but reality often dictates otherwise, and thats why this site is here. Not to hype the storm, but simply to discuss the reality of it. Your opinion is noted, however here we allow others to express their opinion as well. On this site, you can discuss/argue the rationale, but you cannot slam others for their differing opinion.
ED


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JFV25
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 6
Re: Administrative Note [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87080 - Wed Nov 04 2009 08:09 PM

Agreed and understood. I apologies sincerely to Mr. Mike and you, Mr Ed. I would blame you if you decide to ban me as a result of my action.

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rgd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
Re: TD 11 [Re: MikeC]
      #87081 - Wed Nov 04 2009 08:14 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Please, and remember, when it comes to tropical meteorology, it is always best to view the current situation in an objective mentality, instead of in an subjective. YOU, may think that her fatal fate ahs been sealed; however, the rest of us on here, do not quite yet agree with you're sentiment in that regard, quite yet, Mike. I came here looking unfavored and unbaised data, can we keep it that way. Look, alright, she may fizzle; however, are the constant reminders REALLY necessary. This has been a deplorably dismel cane season, although I do not wish death nor destruction to be bethowed upon anyone because of these creatures, at the same time, I welcome this late-season excitement, have you've caught my drift in this regard, Mike? I would hope so. Lastly, let's hope 2010 really brings us all something to really talk about, we'll see, though. Cheers,




No I guess I don't agree. There is a hurricane watch for Nicaragua, and a strengthening Tropical Storm. It is currently bringing torrential rainfall and will likely impact it quite heavily. Those are the facts.

If it fizzles out over there it will be with a ton of flooding there. The atmosphere around the system is very conductive for development, and this is the area you look for development in this part of the season. It will likely not impact the US heavily if at all, but it is worth watching, especially now that it is out of mind of a lot of folks.

The goal is hurricanes without the hype. That does not mean downplaying real threats, or down casting everything. It just means analyzing the situation, real threats are thankfully rare, and in this season even moreso. I'm erring toward better accuracy. It is important to look from the angles of what will cause a system to develop, move to a place, as well as looking for reasons it will not develop or won't go somewhere. Weighing each to determine what is most likely. Most likely may still be 50.0001% chance, like the earlier statement today was (About it fizzling), and it didn't take much for it to go the other way too. (RI of the system was unexpected, but not out of the question given the environment)

And I always hope 2010 is slower than even this one.






Well you quoted me and i did not say that it would i said it may and we watch it but not wish it thanks.


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JFV25
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 6
Re: TD 11 [Re: rgd]
      #87083 - Wed Nov 04 2009 08:20 PM

I've begun to realize the level of seriousness now with Ida, and I acted very irresponsibly, Mike. God bless to all in her path. And yes, let's hope she crumbles to a pulp.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2112
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Ida Forms in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #87089 - Thu Nov 05 2009 04:52 AM Attachment (598 downloads)

Too tired for much analysis, let alone even coherent writing, except to say that it does appear to be a really raw deal for Nicaragua this morning. For all practical intents and purposes, Ida is likely already a hurricane (likely to be deemed so in post-season reanalysis at the very least - recon simply isn't in there now, and there is a huge datavoid, but my best guess has Ida currently between 75-90 MPH 1-min avg max) .. Simply put, the Dvorak technique has not been doing this cyclone justice at all since its inception as a non-designated TC/Invest.

The coastline of Nicaragua is slanted in such a manner as to accommodate the cyclone with more time over water, as Ida travels northwest right along the coast, with only painfully incremental inroads inland. In addition to extending the duration that the immediate coast is pummeled by wind and rain, it is also forcing more and more rain to fall over land, such that in the more likely event that Ida does move inland, large portions of Nicaragua will have already picked up several inches, with possibly even over a foot in some places.

It remains to be seen how long Ida gets held up over central America, but at this point the outcomes are almost certainly bad, and more bad. Ida can linger for several more days over Nicaragua/Honduras/Belize and cause awful life-threatening flooding, only to reemerge and reconstitute itself for an ultimate trip into the lower 48. Or even much worse yet for our friends in central America, Ida may simply crawl to a near stall and completely squeeze out down there.

Image uploaded. Corrected Honduras with Nicaragua.

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Nov 05 2009 10:18 AM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Ida Forms in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea [Re: cieldumort]
      #87091 - Thu Nov 05 2009 08:05 AM

I think the biggest problem is the slow movement and good note on the failing of the measurement tool to totally measure all hurricanes. She is moving slow. Very slow. And, though her eye may not have made landfall the rains have already started falling. Another problem when discussing landfall...often a part of a hurricane is getting pounded because of the layout of the coastline the storm has not made landfall. This happens often when a storm comes in at Florida riding parallel to the Southwest coast down in ...takes longer for the eye to make landfall but the damage has been done already either way.

So, now she's a hurricane ...which she was last night. Still where does she go is the question and more the question if she skims the coastline and does not go far inland where the higher mountains are...and keeps a good part of her system over water.

Lot to think on. Seems 2009 gave us a curveball and sent us an interesting November.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: TD 11 [Re: JFV25]
      #87092 - Thu Nov 05 2009 08:33 AM

A zero hurricane season is certainly a good hurricane season. Coming from personal experience, where I thought it would be "exciting" to be in a huricane, the 2004 season in Central Florida certainly changed my mind on that!

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Hurricane Ida [Re: cieldumort]
      #87093 - Thu Nov 05 2009 09:11 AM

After looking at several different satellite sites. It appears that IDA had a near pinhole eye just prior to making landfall on the Coast of Nicarauga. The Eye may have been shrouded in clouds but it appeared in two or three of the frames that I saw. I'll try to upload an image later.

HWRF takes Ida thru the Yucatan Channel at the 5 day mark . Forecast windspeed of 40kts.

GFDL takes Ida along the same forecast track as the HWRF, but the winds are forecast above 125kts.

So we might have a 50/ 50 shot on the track, but the wind speeds are out the window. No pun intended!


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Jane
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: danielw]
      #87094 - Thu Nov 05 2009 09:32 AM

Would current Gulf water temperatures sustain/fuel this storm IF it moves north?

--------------------
Jane
Fort Lauderdale, Florida
http://janesbits.blogspot.com


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: Jane]
      #87096 - Thu Nov 05 2009 10:28 AM

Central Gulf buoys are reporting SSTs of 82ºF, so the water is still fairly warm out there. These late season storms seem to thrive on more of a temp difference in the vertical, though.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 20/7/4


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2112
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: Jane]
      #87097 - Thu Nov 05 2009 10:29 AM

Quote:


Would current Gulf water temperatures sustain/fuel this storm IF it moves north?




The short answer is a qualified yes. There will be a limit to how much Ida can extract from the northern half of the Gulf, but by that time some other factors may be in play to offset some of the maximum potential intensity loss otherwise stemming from the decreased oceanic heat content.


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MichaelA]
      #87099 - Thu Nov 05 2009 10:52 AM

The thing to also remember is not just the surface SSTs but also how deep the heat goes. These storms require tremendous amounts of heat. Thats why you hear mention of the heat potential...which is VERY high in the northwest Caribbean

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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rgd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: WeatherNut]
      #87100 - Thu Nov 05 2009 11:22 AM

which when and if it comes back out it will not be in the same type of conditions as it was before landfall.

i really think TS will be about all we see by looking at data and stuff really can't see it going back to a cat 1 or 2 Hurricane when and if it comes back out over water.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: rgd]
      #87102 - Thu Nov 05 2009 12:24 PM

The models are still all over the place with Ida. Potential restrengthening aside, if conditions over the Gulf change little in the next few days, Ida could possibly land somewhere on the West coast of Florida. It's still way too early to be sure about that and many things can change in the next 5 - 7 days. Once the storm enters the Gulf, its only way out is by land or dissipation.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 20/7/4


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MichaelA]
      #87103 - Thu Nov 05 2009 12:45 PM

With the natural tendancy of these storms to Curve to the Northeast, wouldn't it follow that the west coast of Florida will be looking at stron winds and rain by the middle of next week?

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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: rgd]
      #87107 - Thu Nov 05 2009 02:45 PM

As one would expect, Ida looks significantly weaker though the storms core circulation is quite intact at the moment. Cloud tops have certainly warmed and given the small circulation I would guess winds may be coming down fast. While the storm is no doubt over land, the question most everyone IS asking pertains to what might become of Ida and where will she go. Given the very light shear, I see no reason for the storm to become "de-coupled". Furthermore, though motion is slow, it does appear to be moving between 315 - 390 degrees. Given the time of year ( as well as the type of year ), I would not be surprised if Ida were to be sheared apart at some point beyond 96 hours.

That all said......., it is not wish-casting at all to think that a potential risk of landfall could occur along the Florida West Coast. One piece of data that "hints" that Ida might go there would be a fairly reliable Tropical Cyclone Forecast Model called the GFDL. Yes, it hints at a West Florida landfall. It remains the easternmost "outlier" of the many forecast models NHC uses, however is nontheless one of the more reliable ones. Another reason to think an eventual turn to the Northeast "could" occur, is a little point of meteorology called Climotology. Over 100 years of collected data and patterns could substantiate a concern for an eventual hook to the Northeast or East if Ida were to appear intact coming into the Southern Gulf of Mexico. Oh yeah, as for "The Cone". This official NHC tool used to convey to the public of "possible" later term impact, was at 12Z today, nudged to the east and though not yet over Florida, does appear to be about 25 miles off the Florida coastline. Look, its most likely Ida won't cause those of us in the U.S. to "run for the hills", but appropriate vigiliance is common sense. Personally, I would be watching Ida a little closer if I were in Florida, than if I were in Texas.

On a seperate note ( and for a good laugh ), anyone happen to check out the 12Z run of the NAM?? It just doesn't believe that Ida exists, yet places some storm about 300 miles to the East. Check out the model run from 0Z to about 60 hours.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: cieldumort]
      #87111 - Thu Nov 05 2009 03:03 PM

I moved a few posts to the forecast lounge that were too far into speculation on the main page.

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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MikeC]
      #87115 - Thu Nov 05 2009 05:57 PM

Wow....., while we watch the wild wacky world of forecast models ( that was a lot of "w's" ), the 18Z GFS has partialy come out. Good news here is that while an intensifying Ida would be emerging into the N.W. Caribbean in a few days, at 120 hours it suddenly starts a due east march ahead of what appears to be a potent digging short wave. Bad of course for those in Cuba, but at least would seem to spare Florida.

Bad news is, when I then projected the 120 hours point when an eastward motion starts, and then looked at the official NHC forecasted position and a few other models, in most cases the storm was already up to about 25 degrees latitude or more. Well, even if this eastward motion were to pan out, and even given that Ida could be moving in tandum with what must be ever increasing westerly shear, I think that despite its eastward motion the shear would be quite significant and perhaps would be looking at a moderate tropical storm becoming baroclinic and starting to weaken.

What i'll be most interested to see is the near term motion and how close to forecast, its speed and direction play out. Though very far from certain ( and especially if the storm is moving verses a stall ), I am getting a feeling that the models are starting to get a better handle on the storm and near/mid term steering conditions.


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JFV25
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 6
Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: weathernet]
      #87116 - Thu Nov 05 2009 06:17 PM

Yup, Most of them are clustered up in a very nice consensus, there, Mike. Finally, lol.

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CoconutCandy
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Hurricane Ida Makes the Record Books for Explosive Intensification [Re: weathernet]
      #87118 - Thu Nov 05 2009 07:09 PM

I am nothing short of amazed at how quickly a full-fledged hurricane can spring up from a well developed surface low.

Even provided all the prerequisite environmental conditions are favorable for rapid metamorphosis, a deep-layer warm-core cyclone orchestrating thousands of cubic miles of warm oceanic air that extends right up to the tropopause, repleat with the rapid assembly of it's infamous and characteristic eyewall structure, it is no small feat of accomplishment for our atmosphere to be able to pull this off in the time it takes earth to make one full rotation on it's axis. From Invest to Hurricane in less than 24 hours!

Ida will surely be duely filed away in the annals of hurricane history as one of the quickest cyclones to have gone from a well organized invest to a full fledged hurricane, albeit the storm was on the small side of average, which tends to present a greater challenge for forecasters, especially with regard to intensity guidance, as well as a seemingly greater opportunity for rapid intensification to transpire.

The ongoing and quickly developing mesoscale features constituting the inner core convective processes, continually morphing and vigorously imparting their enormous loads of kinetic wind energy from the release of latent heat of condensation on a stupendous scale, eventually (and, as we've seen, sometimes quite rapidly) results in the development of the defining warm-core eyewall-structure that so uniquely characterizes these cyclones.

But, as was noted yesterday, 'Ida' was already a well developed and rapidly strengthening tropical storm by the time hurricane reconnaissance had arrived, with microwave imagery already prominently depicting a decent nascent eyewall, presumably the results of successive flaring of very deep, bursting convection very near and over an already well-developed LLCC during the previous night's convective max cycle, as discussed in previous posts.



So it's no wonder 'Ida' was able to organize so quickly and develop into a hurricane so rapidly, considering all the 'right ingredients' were there and the upper levels of the atmosphere finally(!) decided to turn favorable, and the compact nature of the cyclone as well, all of which conspired together to generate a bona-fide hurricane, complete with a pinhole eyewall at landfall, in near record breaking time. But I am still quite amazed!



As Daniel had observed ...
Quote:

After looking at several different satellite sites, it appears that IDA had a near pinhole eye just prior to making landfall on the Coast of Nicaragua. The Eye may have been shrouded in clouds, but it appeared in two or three of the frames that I saw.





.


Edited by CoconutCandy (Fri Nov 06 2009 12:33 AM)


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