Thoughts on Ida - FLHurricane.com

Ida certainly poses some interesting possibilities regarding her future track. solution runs her up to the panhandle where she gets absorbed by a (mostly) stationary front, with the storm becoming on Tuesday. Tropical models run the hurricane toward the panhandle (by then a tropical storm again) and then turn it east and southeast over or close to Floridaâ€™s west coast and weaken the storm but no transition. runs the storm northward in the Gulf of Mexico, transitions it to an system and sends it across the extreme northern peninsula toward reformation off the South Carolina coast.

Upper level 300mb progs suggest strong northwesterly winds moving over the Florida peninsula â€“ which would lend support to the tropical models (HWRF/GFDL) scenario and pretty much negate the solution. The light shear zone that Ida is currently moving through is being shoved a little northward into the southeastern Gulf by the trough over Mexico, however, strong westerly winds are still evident above 25N so Ida should begin to weaken by Sunday evening as she moves northward in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Does Ida get absorbed by the front as she nears the panhandle, or does she get shoved southeastward by the building ridge to the north and the strong upper northwesterly flow? The Saturday projections seemed to be a little too far to the west beyond Monday evening, however, AF Recon has confirmed that the center of the hurricane is actually located about 50 miles further to the west than what had been previously assumed. Could the storm make landfall in the central panhandle before being absorbed or shoved southeastward? Its still too early to tell, but I have trouble with a mostly zonal front absorbing a healthy system so Iâ€™m eliminating that scenario. There is always the possibility that she simply dies out as a result of the westerly windshear in the northern Gulf. A strong pressure gradient is already in place, so windy conditions and rough seas in the southeast and along the northeast Gulf coast well into this week.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Nov 08 2009 01:38 AM)

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