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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 36 (Nicholas) , Major: 52 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1106 (Michael) Major: 1106 (Michael)
 


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tropicswatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
Re: November storms... [Re: MikeC]
      #87261 - Sun Nov 08 2009 04:53 PM

Sort of surprised and a little excited to see some of Ida's outer bands showing up on Keywest radar http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Probably the most action they'll see thankfully.


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kromdog
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Reged: Mon
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Re: November storms... [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #87263 - Sun Nov 08 2009 04:54 PM

Speaking of West Central Florida. All of the reports we are getting here at this point is that this is a Panhandle event. We generally say in Tampa/Clearwater that you are not out of the woods until the storm is North of your location, but most have seen some of the recent forecasts and a hook here and there....

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: November storms... [Re: kromdog]
      #87264 - Sun Nov 08 2009 05:26 PM

Recon made pass threw center and heading outbound.. appears to have hit higher winds at flight level in the eyewall... atleast it appears to be a bumpy ride out

flight level winds 22.7N 86.1167W From 150° at 104 knots (From the SSE at ~ 119.6 mph)

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: November storms... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87265 - Sun Nov 08 2009 05:27 PM

Seems the most recent radar images are indicating a very small, tightly wound eye.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
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Re: November storms... [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #87266 - Sun Nov 08 2009 05:39 PM

did have higher winds outbound... pressure up.. thinking we seen the lowest were going to see with ida... appears to me shear is starting to work in and the storm maybe moving slight faster?

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 22:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 23
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 21:59:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°28'N 86°19'W (22.4667N 86.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 97 miles (156 km) to the NNE (20°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,936m (9,633ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 80kts (~ 92.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SSE (167°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 256° at 85kts (From the WSW at ~ 97.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SSE (164°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 977mb (28.85 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the east
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 190° to 10° (S to N)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20 nautical miles
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 10 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:21:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 108kts (~ 124.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 22:09:00Z
Displacement of SFC. Center From Flt. Lvl. Center: Surface center is 7 nautical miles to the N (360°) from the flight level center
Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 84kts (~ 96.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 22:04:40Z

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: November storms... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87268 - Sun Nov 08 2009 06:08 PM

Quote:

did have higher winds outbound... pressure up.. thinking we seen the lowest were going to see with ida... appears to me shear is starting to work in and the storm maybe moving slight faster?




Faster forward motion in this case may be a bad thing, since it means
1) less time to prepare
2) less time for the shear to rip Ida apart

It still looks like winds around very near 100mph from the recon report...slight pressure increase may not mean much in this case (too early to tell).
The satellite presentation is mixed to me - a bit lopsided but still impressive cloud tops.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
Re: November storms... [Re: Hugh]
      #87269 - Sun Nov 08 2009 06:20 PM

Faster forward motion also means if you're on the "dirty" side the forward speed is additive to the windfield itself, which implies that a strong Tropical Storm would have similar impacts to a Cat 1 hurricane, and so on.

Being potentially "under the gun" this would not be welcome.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: November storms... [Re: Genesis]
      #87270 - Sun Nov 08 2009 06:23 PM

Quote:

Faster forward motion also means if you're on the "dirty" side the forward speed is additive to the windfield itself, which implies that a strong Tropical Storm would have similar impacts to a Cat 1 hurricane, and so on.
Being potentially "under the gun" this would not be welcome.




Precisely what I was thinking. Since I'm going to be on the northeast side of the landfall... this is not good news for me. Fortunately, I'm well inland and have gone through many, many hurricanes much stronger than Ida is now, let alone what it's forecast to be tomorrow. Still, it's not going to be a walk in the park.

FYI (news from "ground zero")... the local paper's website indicates that Hurlburt AFB (toward Navarre) went to Hurricon 3 at 10am, and Eglin went to Hurricon 3 "this afternoon". Eglin's website does not indicate that they've gone to Hurricon 3, though (could be they haven't update it, or that the paper's website is wrong). |
Update: Upon further reading, the same article says that Eglin expects to intiate Hurricon 2 sometime tomorrow. Hurlburt's aircraft are being evacuated to Fort Campbell, KY. Eglin's aircraft will be stored on base in available hanger space.

New recon (23:04:40z)...pressure up to 980, eyewall open east... hail and cont. lightning N quad.
6pm intermediate is out.. winds now up to 105.

Edited by Hugh (Sun Nov 08 2009 06:55 PM)


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Mag
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
Loc: Merritt Island, Fl
Re: November storms... [Re: Hugh]
      #87271 - Sun Nov 08 2009 06:58 PM

Good luck to all who are in the direct path of Ida, I feel like this storm has been downplayed, and hope that everyone is ready. Quick question, I am over here on the east coast ( Merritt Island ) just south of the cape. Could I possibly expect some TS conditions ?

--------------------
Storms I Have Been Through

David, Gloria, Bob, Wilma, Fay


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Recon [Re: Hugh]
      #87272 - Sun Nov 08 2009 07:01 PM

Hail and lightning are indicators of a storm strengthening or deeping. They are bad news in Hurricanes just like they are in a severe thunderstorm.

RECON will probably find a pressure drop and possibly a eyewall replacement cycle at some point.

Based on previous Hurricanes with hail and lightning


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Recon [Re: danielw]
      #87273 - Sun Nov 08 2009 07:18 PM

It looks like Ida is starting to expand, maybe the first sign it may turn extratropical (or it could mean stronger hurricane), but still it's very tropical and is looking "better" tongiht. The pressure went up, but the winds may be higher because of the gradient effect. The eastern side is expanding for sure now, which is why I'm thinking that. The hail/lightning recon found could mean either rapid weakening or strengthening may occur.


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: November storms... [Re: Mag]
      #87274 - Sun Nov 08 2009 07:24 PM

Mag and others on the Florida Peninsula. This is a very strange storm and it probably wouldn't hurt for all of us to plan for a Tropical Storm.
Check local forecast on this website: Weather.Gov Place your Zip Code in the box in the upper left side of the page.


Things like battery powered radios,flashlights and other canned goods that won't go bad if you don't use them. The battery powered Christmas candles work great and you can use them anytime.
Just plan on the power or electric being out for 48 hours and you are good to go. If the power doesn't go out you have supplies for the next outage or you can share with someone who doesn't have power.

Edited by danielw (Sun Nov 08 2009 07:36 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Recon [Re: danielw]
      #87275 - Sun Nov 08 2009 07:36 PM

An expanding CDO in the central Gulf does not indicate a transition to extratropical in my mind - it indicates transition to a more powerful hurricane. There is a hint of an eye forming on the AVN loop now (it's not clear in the middle but a hole is developing in the super-high/black cloud tops). The expanding CDO and the rise in pressure make sense, when put together. Granted, I'm a bit biased since I'm in the middle of the path of this thing. I just don't see the shear that is supposed to rip it apart.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Recon [Re: Hugh]
      #87276 - Sun Nov 08 2009 07:44 PM

I agree. Saw the hint of an eye earlier. But ruled it out due to situation.

The flight level temperatures aren't consistant with what I normally see from Recon. Temp inside the eye is 17C and was 19C on previous Vortex Message.

GOM Eye temps are normally in the 20C plus range. Yes, I know this is November. Just seems rather odd. The whole storm seems rather odd...
Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles.

Even the Eye is smaller than normal... that's a Charlie or Wilma size Eye.


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rgd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
Re: Recon [Re: Hugh]
      #87277 - Sun Nov 08 2009 07:44 PM

well hugh look at the chart and you will find it pretty easy.Also sher is already starting to take a toll and the water temps will vry soon also.Read jeff masters take on it seems to be right on.

Edited by rgd (Sun Nov 08 2009 07:45 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Recon [Re: danielw]
      #87278 - Sun Nov 08 2009 07:53 PM

[quoteEven the Eye is smaller than normal... that's a Charlie or Wilma size Eye.




A small eye is also not indicative of a storm transitioning to extra-tropical is it? It's indicative of a stom that is about to get stronger, and potentially rapidly (remember how fast both Charlie and Wilma ramped up from minimal 'canes to Cat 4+).
Ida's pressure and current maximum winds say it's a Cat 2, but the eye structure, satellite cloud top levels and temperature indicate something much stronger. Of course, with the competing structures coming together in the northern Gulf, a strong pressure gradient is going to create some... unusual... wind levels. Maybe that is all that is transpiring. Still, I don't care what you call it, strong winds are still damaging, whether they come from a Cat 3 hurricane or an extratropical storm.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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rgd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
Re: Recon [Re: Hugh]
      #87279 - Sun Nov 08 2009 07:58 PM

hugh read jeff masters take on it will make you feel alot better.I would post it but then it would get taken off.He talks about about the small eye and what to look for.


Looking at the latest loops really is losing a lot of deep convection in the last 30 minutes.

Edited by rgd (Sun Nov 08 2009 08:30 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Recon [Re: Hugh]
      #87280 - Sun Nov 08 2009 09:03 PM

School Closures starting to happen in the Panhandle, Escambia for sure. Going to get some news links up soon.


What are conditions in your area related to Ida? Let us know here
Have a guess, long range model analysis, or thought about where Ida will be going, let us know in the lounge.


Emergency Management

FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Individual Florida County Emergency Management Websites

Webcams, Video, Audio
WJHG 7 the NBC Affiliate in Panama City Beach, FL
WMBB - Panama City Beach, FL
WEAR ABC 3 in Pensacola
NBC 15 / Mobile/Pensacola

Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Miami FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
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Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Recon [Re: MikeC]
      #87281 - Sun Nov 08 2009 09:14 PM

Escambia County has issued some evacuations, according to WEAR TV 3.

Santa Rosa County has announced that schools will be OPEN tomorrow.

No decision yet on Okaloosa County. They are expected to declare a state of emergency in the morning, however.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Marvin
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Re: Recon [Re: Hugh]
      #87282 - Sun Nov 08 2009 09:57 PM

Hurricane Warning posted for portions of northern Gulf Coast:

AT 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.


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