Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Latest NOAA/CPC forecasts indicate that the current moderate El Nino should persist through Spring 2010, and probably linger in a weaker state through the Summer. The forecast implies a below normal season for tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin. Initial selections for best analog years are 1973, 1993, 1968 and 1987, and my initial outlook for the 2010 season is 8/4/1 (8 named storms with 4 becoming hurricanes and one of the four becoming a major hurricane).
This is your chance to post your own forecast for the season. Rationale is not required, although the reasoning behind your numbers is always welcomed. I’ll keep this thread open until the end of May and then we can examine the results at the end of the season. Last year as a group we didn’t do so well with most of the forecasts running on the high side.
Note that multi-year below normal seasons are not that uncommon. Recent examples include 1967-68, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1986-87 and 1991-94. To make it easier to compile the end-of-season results, please limit your inputs in this thread to forecasts (and rationale if any).
Cheers,
ED
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Hurricane29
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With trades being nonexistent the eastern atlantic is running above normal i.e.; main development region and would not be suprised for an early start to the capeverde season. model forecasts continue to show a rapid weaking of el nino transitioning to Neutral. 11-16 storms 7-8 hurricanes 3-5 majors.
Edited by Hurricane29 (Thu Feb 18 2010 12:41 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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SST forecast discussions now state that about half of the models show a decline in El Nino to a neutral state while half of the models continue El Nino through April, May and June. The NOAA consensus is that the current El Nino has peaked at +1.2C in the 3.4 region of the equatorial eastern Pacific.
Note that only those forecasts that state firm numbers (rather than a range of numbers) can be considered in the final tally of how well the site users forecasted the seasonal totals since scoring is based on numerical deviation from the final totals.
Also note that as the season approaches and new data becomes available, you can adjust your forecast until this thread closes at the end of May.
While current trends in anomalies would hint at the potential for a busier season, since SST forecasts during the winter season are notorius for considerable variability, I'm going to maintain my low-end forecast for awhile longer.
For those that might be considering a busy season, if in fact the El Nino declines, the best analog years are 1978, 1988, 1966 and 1998 in that order.
ED
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JoshuaK
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I'm going to take a stab in the dark here and make an early prediction of 12 Depressions, 10 of which will become named storms, 6 of which will become hurricanes, and 3 of which will become major hurricanes.
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Hurricane29
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Another quick comparison...Something to keep an eye on in the coming months.
Anomalies from this time last year Febuary-2009
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomw.2.19.2009.gif
Currently Anomalies 2010
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomw.2.18.2010.gif
Edited by danielw (Wed Feb 24 2010 07:32 AM)
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B.C.Francis
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2010 season....9/5/2........Looking forward to some nice balmy weather. I hate cold weather. Enough is enough here in East Central Florida. Bring on the 80s and a nice spring.
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enterlaughing
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I'm thinking pretty calm, but not dormant.........10/5/2
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jessiej
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14/7/3
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Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005
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CDMOrlando
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Loc: seminole cnty florida
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2010 Prediction
This forecasts are based on statistical methodologies derived from past data. This is a valid methodology provided that the atmosphere continues to behave in the future as it has in the past. Qualitative adjustments are added to accommodate additional processes which may not be explicitly represented by the statistical analyses. This year these items includes:
1. The El Niño that many of the forecast models indicate that neutral condition are likely for this upcoming late summer/fall. d.
2. A declined change back to "normal" active (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)) period dynamics. Unlike 2009 when both thermodynamic (i.e., sea surface temperatures, mid-level moisture) and dynamic factors (i.e., vertical wind shear, pre-existing vorticity) were less favorable for tropical cyclone formation and intensification..
Despite a fairly inactive 2009 hurricane season, it appears that the Atlantic basin is currently in an active hurricane cycle associated with a strong thermohaline circulation and an active phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two at which time we should enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925. Atlantic hurricanes go through multi-decadal cycles. Cycles in Atlantic major hurricanes have been observationally traced back to the mid-19th century, and changes in the AMO have been inferred from Greenland paleo ice-core temperature measurements going back thousand of years.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=74948&Main=74348
No. of Hurricanes 9
No. of Named Storms 15
No. of Hurricane Days 30
No. of Named Storm Days 69
Intense Hurricanes 3
Intense Hurricane Days 5
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 154
Edited by danielw (Fri Mar 05 2010 08:14 AM)
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Bloodstar
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Well, I'd done all this math to come up with a statistical reason for my prediction and I think I forgot to hit post. But here we go
Tropical and Subtropical Depressions - 21
Tropical and Subtropical Storms - 19
Hurricanes - 10
Major Hurricanes - 5
Where did these numbers come from? by taking the most active of the 4 out of last 6 years and averaging out the totals and then adjusting by one, depending on my feelings of verisimilitude for my numbers.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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With El Nino making a withrawal I predict the following for 2010 season
Named systems: 15
Hurricanes: 10
Major Hurricanes; 6
Landfalling Hurricanes; 6
Florida landfalls: Let's not go there............
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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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lawman6713
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13/5/2
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GoBigSurf
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My 2010 predictions are: 11/5/3
I WAY overshot last years predictions so I am going in another direction....
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Miami - Hurricane Andrew
Port Saint Lucie - Hurricanes Francis & Jeanne
etc...etc....etc....
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Storm Hunter
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looking at the past... 1958, 1966, 1969, 1998, 2005. The atlantic is warmer in a lot of areas, compared to last year at this time... and with El Nino forecasted to weaken... expecting an early start to the CV season and an above average season. Going with a highend forecast... 22 systems (atleast a invest tag)/ 18 storms/ 9 hurricanes/ 5 major
22/18/9/5.... *** landfalling guess*** <14> 
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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gsand
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20/17/11/4
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------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991 Erin 1995 Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2021 Forecast- 15/6/3
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GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist
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20/10/5 == We've been dodging the bullet for to long.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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As a counterpoint to the Main Page article, I'm not yet convinced that the 'early indicators are shaping up to be an above average year'. NOAA's latest SST forecast (issued on April 11th) states an expectation that the current El Nino will last through this Spring with neutral conditions likely for this Summer.
As mentioned earlier in this thread, the winter SST anomaly predictions often come with a high degree of variability, and the same degree of forecast variability has already surfaced this year. As of February 18th the NOAA consensus was that the current El Nino SST anomaly had peaked at +1.2C in Sept/Oct/Nov - but the actual peak was +1.8C in Nov/Dec/Jan. I'd anticipate that the anomaly for Feb/Mar/Apr will be around +1.1C and that the decline will continue to an neutral state by Jul/Aug/Sep.
( Note that the anomaly for Feb/Mar/Apr came in at +1.2C )
I took a look at the SST climatological data where the SST anomaly had been around +0.6C during May/June/July of the previous year and had increased to about +1.5C in Jan/Feb/Mar and then decreasing at that point (or earlier). 1958, 1966, 1973 and 1992 met the criteria, however, the rate of decline was quite similar to the rate expected for this season in 1958 and 1966. The season totals for 1958 were 10/7/5 and for 1966 the totals were 11/7/4. While the SSTs in the tropical Atlantic are expected to be above normal, the amount of temperature increase is not too significant at about +0.5 or 0.6C.
With all of those considerations in mind, I'll nudge my seasonal expectations up to 10/6/3 - a rather normal season.
Cheers,
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue May 04 2010 12:14 PM)
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IMTechspec
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I have been thinking along the same lines as Ed, for the last few weeks. However, he said it clearer than I would have and with better data to back it up!
I see and hear some folks talking as if the El Nino and it's affects will turn off almost as if a switch has been thrown. While it has not been a strong El Nino, he has been a persistent little guy, and the effects will take a while to fade.
I recognize that there are some other potentially positive indicators shaping up that would favor more development, such as Atlantic SSTs and Winds, but so far these factors are not enough to push me into thinking that we at risk of a VERY active season. Let us hope that I am right.
At this point, I am predicting 11 named, 6 Hurricanes, 3 majors.
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ma10487
Unregistered
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15/8/3
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srquirrely
Weather Watcher
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14/8/4
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