MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Today, Dr. Philip Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray at Colorado State University (See the 2010 Forecast Detail)
have updated their 2010 probability forecast for the Atlantic Hurricane Season (See the 2010 Forecast Detail).
In comparison, last year was forecast to be at or below average, and it was slightly below average (9NS, 3H, 2MH)
From this it appears it is likely for an above average hurricane season this year, with the largest single element in favor of that being the waning El Niño, which should become neutral by July. This suggests less activity for June, and slight potential for July storms, but much more likely into Late August.
Water temperatures across the Atlantic have been much warmer than usual the past several weeks, and the Gulf is beginning to warm as well. Trade winds have been weaker this year than in the past, allowing the water to warm more.
The numbers predicted for this year (As of April 7th), are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 Intense (Major) Hurricanes. Historically the averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.
Landfall Probabilities for a major hurricane for entire United States coastline: 69% .
East Coast, including Florida: 45%
Gulf Coast (Florida Panhandle Westward): 44%
There isn’t much to disagree with this year. Although landfalls are extraordinarily difficult to predict. The positions of the Bermuda and Azores high will help determine if systems move more westward or recurve out to sea. Analog years for this season are 1958, 1966, 1969, 1998, 2005. This includes some years with some very memorable storms.
Since early indicators are shaping up to be an above average year, we should not be using the past two years as a comparison. With the economy slow in many areas with public budget shortfalls as well, many places may be ill equipped for the potential of this year’s hurricane season. Hopefully the steering currents will keep most of the activity away from the coast.
On the optimistic side, Hurricanes are still rare events, and there is a lot that must be just right for them to form and to impact land with any strength. Weaker systems can cause flooding issues too, but this year there seems to be significantly less in the overall pattern to keep systems from forming or maintaining themselves, unlike 2009.
It's prudent to be watching closely this year, and it appears we may have quite a bit to watch.
Remember: Social Networking Sites such as facebook and twitter are great ways to "get the word out" if you are ok if a disaster strikes. (Either via you or someone that has access to it, let them know to send out the a-ok, and hopefully reduce the telephone overload that usually occurs with a major disaster.)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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1969,1998 and 2005. Really bad years for the Gulf of Mexico Coastline.
1969 hits: Fl Panhandle-1, FL Peninsula-2, Mississippi-1
1998 hits: Fl Panhandle-1, FL Peninsula-1,Mississippi-1, Louisiana-1, Texas-2
2005 hits: Fl Panhandle-2, Fl Peninsula-3, Louisiana-2, Texas-1
This is a rough list and needs to be refined a bit.
Totals for the list:
FL Panhandle: 4
FL Peninsula: 6
Mississippi: 2
Louisiana: 3
Texas: 3
Total of 18 landfalling GOM coastal storms
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javlin
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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For a second Dan I thought you were incorrect for 05 but I guess 's first landfall is the offical.In looking over some of the data and if things hold which there really is no reason for it not to the season may be ominous for some.I remember snowfall in 85 Elena,95 Opal and 04 and 75 or 76 and nothing.While we had no actual sticky stuff on the ground this year along the coast we had flurries some.I kinda look at it as an indicator of events to be maybe in lining up a certain steering pattern.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Yes, I saw that too. They only count the first landfall.
If we counted all landfalls... 1st, 2nd and 3rd, then Florida would have more landfalls than they do.
I had 2 or 3 measurable snows here, 60 miles from the GOM. And 1 or 2 days with snow flurries and no measurable amount.
High pressure entrenched over the SE US is warming everyone up rather fast .
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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NHC has changed the Watch and Warning criteria for Tropical Storms and Hurricanes effective June 1,2010.
National Hurricane Center to Increase Lead Time in Watches and Warnings
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will provide greater lead time for tropical cyclone watches and warnings beginning with the 2010 hurricane season. With the ever-increasing population along the United States coastline, communities need more time to prepare for tropical cyclones. Advances in observational capabilities, numerical weather prediction, and forecaster tools over the past two decades have enabled the to make more accurate track forecasts. Over the past 15 years, average forecast track errors have been cut in half. As a result of this progress, tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for threatened coastal areas will be issued 12 hours earlier than in previous years.
New Definitions of Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches and Warnings for 2010
Tropical Storm Watch: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified coastal area within 48 hours.
Tropical Storm Warning: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area within 36 hours.
Hurricane Watch: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.
Hurricane Warning: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/watchwarn_changes.shtml
Other Changes:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pns_index.shtml
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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And now we we can add another part to the puzzle the MSLP is projected to be lower across the board throughout the ATL in the peak of season. It seems this was the case in 05??
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...cile%20summary/
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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It's good to see folks checking in and getting ready for another season.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat May 08 2010 11:49 PM)
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