SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
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and tell me this thing is moving nw...maybe even a tad more north than that. It's sure what I see. someone work with me here...do ya see it?
oilageddon....i sure hope not
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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if you take a look at Hi-Res close-up sats in last two hrs... the storms that fired on the northern side of coc... got strong enough to send a downburst to the north... u gotta look close, cus sun is fading, but clearly there is a downburst from the storms that just fired off the center... which to me means that Alex is cooking again... recon within 25 miles of center. NE side
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Recon has recorded 3 consecutive pressure reading in the 991mb range. Thats quite a bit deeper and there are vast areas of TS force winds
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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see that... and i as wrote.. new data supports that Alex appears to be a TS again... SMFR data shows 40mph surface winds east and north of center
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Try this one (before it gets too dark):
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html
Click on visible - short loop. Bring up to maximum speed. Click on Zoom. Click on the area that you want to magnify (at least six times). Center is pretty easy to locate.
ED
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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recon did a loop on coc at 2kft... its within 10 miles off the coast.. they hit flight level center at 19.2167N 91.0833W... appears to the flight level center is very small.. maybe 15 miles wide at 2k ft. with a flight level temp in middel at 71F, dew pt. 57F
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Jun 27 2010 08:03 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Curious flight pattern.... it looks like they circled the LLC, but didn't go into it. They're headed outbound now. Will they make another pass?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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so far the data i have seen supports a TS with winds of 40mph... haven't seen anything that would show higher... the max winds appears to be on the north side... maybe NW, but only 25 miles or less from center... Recon is approaching the heavy feeder band to the NW of COC.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
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degrees around the COC. Doesn't take much imagination to see Alex gettin it going pretty quick.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Interesting Ed, this may atone for the odd model behavior I noted earlier, of the 12Z guidance. They were showing a broadened llv pressure pattern and weakening wind field, and then out of now where a closure took place along the NW Yucatan Penn - it was as though the vorticity sheared out and severed into a newly developing system! Fascinating, but perhaps it was the displaced(ing) mlv center then drilling down when/if new convection develops as the overall lower pressure core goes back over the hot waters of the Bay.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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It appears there was some recent rejuvenation of convective banding. Also, Alex has slowed some this evening in his forward motion. This could be a concern that a track change is about to take place.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Center fix from dropsonde shows 991mb
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 23:45:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°13'N 91°06'W (19.2167N 91.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 58 miles (93 km) to the SW (221°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Jun 27 2010 08:42 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Appears 00Z Data went with TS Alex...
Date: Jun. 28, 2010 0:00 Z (Monday)
Coordinates: 19.2N 91.1W
Pressure (MSLP): 991 mb (29.27 inHg | 991 hPa)
Wind speed (1 min. avg.): 35 knots (40 mph | 18 m/s | 65 km/h)
Location: 59 statue miles (94 km) to the SW (220°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
Isobar details: The last closed isobar has a pressure of 1004 mb. (29.65 inHg | 1004 hPa) The radius of the last closed isobar is 200 nautical miles (230 miles | 370 kilometers).
Radius of Max Winds: 20 nautical miles (23 miles | 37 kilometers)
System Depth: Deep
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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They confirmed 991mb pressure and 47mph winds...so looks like it is a TS again
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 41
Loc:
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This thing is a lot more impressive leaving the land than when it entered it.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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47 mph? Is that SFC or fl?
Either way, it's enough to upgrade... but that would be a big jump at the surface.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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00z data did go with TS Alex. Recon is making second pass and prolly last pass on center as i write this.
Alex 00Z data:
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 91.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 18.6N LONM12 = 90.1W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 17.5N LONM24 = 88.1W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1004MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 20NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 60NM
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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recon recent pass shows flight level center... sw of last fix... 10 miles or so... but winds seemed to have increased... i saw a peak SMRF of 56mph... alot of SMFR winds in 45-50 mph range to the ene of COC...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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mwillis
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral
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Is this a new recon report? winds are higher than last?
This is only first part of the message
Storm ALEX: Observed By Air Force #304
Storm #01 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 42KT (48.3mph 77.8km/h) In N Quadrant At 23:19:50Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 37.8KT (43.5mph 70.0km/h) *
Misc Remarks: SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB ;
Date/Time of Recon Report: Sunday, June 27, 2010 9:12:00 PM (Mon, 28 Jun 2010 01:12:00 UTC)
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Forward motion of Alex has really slowed down a lot, to be almost stationary.
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