Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Not too long after Cat II Hurricane Alex moved ashore in northeast Mexico yesterday evening, ‘stormtiger’ asked “Does a Cat II hurricane in June make a severe hurricane season more likely? Well, the short answer (with qualifications) is ‘No’. The qualifications are that there were only two other seasons with a Cat II Hurricane in June – 1886 (12 total storms) and 1906 (11 total storms). However, if you expand the database to include any Hurricane in May or June, you can then identify 25 seasons since 1886 … and the long answer is still ‘No’.
Those years with early season hurricanes were 1886, 1888, 1889, 1893, 1902, 1906, 1908, 1913, 1921, 1929, 1933, 1934, 1936, 1945, 1951, 1954, 1957, 1959, 1966, 1968, 1970, 1972, 1982, 1986 and 1995. Some of the seasons provide for some interesting statistics. In 1886 there were 3 Cat II Hurricanes in June – all of them with a maximum sustained windspeed of 85 knots. 1889 had a Cat I in May (70 knots) and a Cat I in June (65 knots). 1906 had a Cat II in June at 90 knots. 1908 had a Cat II in MARCH at 90 knots and a Cat I in May at 65 knots. 1929 had 3 storms for the season – all hurricanes – with a Cat I in June (75 knots). 1936 had a Cat I Hurricane in June (70 knots) which was the third storm of the season – same thing happened in 1959 (also 70 knots). 1945 had a Cat III June storm (100 knots). 1951 had Hurricane Able at Cat III (100 knots) in May. 1966 had Cat III Hurricane Alma in June (110 knots), and Alma shows up again in 1970 in May (70 knots). 1968 had two Cat I’s in June – Abby and Brenda (both at 65 knots). Finally, the monster of all early season storms was Hurricane Audrey in June, 1957, at Cat IV (125 knots).
The average number of named storms for a season with a Hurricane in May and/or June is 10, with a range from a high of 21 in 1933 to a low of 3 in 1929. Of the 25 seasons, 11 had normal seasonal storm totals (10-12), 11 had below normal totals (9 or less), and 3 had above normal totals (13 or more). During those 25 seasons with a Hurricane in May or June, Florida was hit by a Tropical Storm (or Hurricane) 84% of the seasons, and Texas was hit by a Tropical Storm (or Hurricane) 72% of the seasons. In those 25 years a total of 46 storms hit Florida and 26 storms hit Texas.
ED
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