MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 941
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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That also happens with collapsing thunderstorms here in FL near the west coast during the summer.
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Michael
PWS
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Rope Cloud from yesterday.
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
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I am looking at the visible satellites, and I think the wave in the Northwest Caribbean may be
trying to organize. The area that I am looking at (as of 15:45) is near 85W and 19N. I am not for
sure, though .
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Has a sense of itself....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html
Curvature, bands... all it needs now is a center.
Water temps are not as warm as usual I think in the Bahamas...
it's not just an issue of the models sticking with it... it's more a matter of being able to see it possibly happening on the loops.
Not the best conditions yet... think it's got better than average chances of being something with a name.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 382
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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So what has happened to cause the to up it to a 60% chance of development in such a short period of time. I admit it looks fairly impressive, but still a lot of very dry air to the north and north west. Not sure when they upped it but I just noticed it.
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
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The has upgraded 97L to a code red (60% chance of development). I think we will probably be tracking a depression by tonight as it continues to organize. It is certainly getting interesting.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 941
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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The shear has all but vanished over this system. It does look as though it will pull together tonight and tomorrow, but it's proximity to Hispaniola should tend to keep it rather weak in the short term. I'm not seeing a LLC just yet in the vis loop nor on San Juan radar - maybe a slight hint of one forming, but nothing definite just yet. The now takes it more northward, the is esentially unchanged, and the HWRF splits them on the 12Z runs. Until there is a LLC for several runs, the models don't mean a whole lot. Expect lots of changes in them in the near term.
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Michael
PWS
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Could this be the reason??
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
137 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010
VALID 12Z FRI JUL 23 2010 - 12Z TUE JUL 27 2010
FINAL...
THE 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MODERATE DEGREE OF SPREAD
WITH BOTH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHORTWAVES ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST GEFS MEAN AND UKMET ARE
CLOSEST TO THE 00Z ECENS MEAN...USED FOR THE UPDATE PACKAGE...WITH
THIS 12Z GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF POLAR
CYCLONES. THE AND PARALLEL STILL DO NOT CLUSTER WELL
ENOUGH WITH THE BULK OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE TO BE VERY RELIABLE.
CHANGED THE GULF TROPICAL WAVE TROUGH TO A LOW CENTER...AS PER
COORDINATION WITH TPC. NONE OF THE NEW MODELS DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
TO A SUBSTANTIAL DEGREE. OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES
FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE.
(emphasis added by danielw)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=PMDEPD&max=61
Edited by danielw (Tue Jul 20 2010 02:48 PM)
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
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I think 97L will be a depression by late tonight or tomorrow morning since it continues to organize.
The continues to mention that the only thing missing is a defined low-level circulation, but I
think we will have one soon enough. The latest models have trended south with the system which
is the more likely solution. I think this system has the potential to wind up over the next few days,
especially if it does not move inland over Florida but stays over the water. On Accuweather.com,
Joe Bastardi has a good commentary on 97L and he thinks it has the potential to wind up fairly quickly.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4489
Loc: Orlando, FL
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There is a fair chance that South Florida/Keys will see Tropical Storm or possibly Hurricane Watches or Warnings sometime Thursday if the storm continues like it is. I'm not sold on intensity wise, but there chances went up enough today to suggest it.
I'd really like it to develop first to go further than that, but... most likely the system will stay just south or at South Florida, as some sort of tropical system. The area may increase, but it's unlikely to be a major storm. I put a little more in the forecast lounge, if you want to make guesses, or discuss the long range models, go over there and check it out.
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Jasonch
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 42
Loc: Texas
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I know that we have to have a storm to develope before we can get a better idea of what it is going to do and where it is going to go. But can somebody give me some idea of how strong the HIGH Pressure may be and how far west it could go and is the northwestern gulf at risk. After going through Hurricane and Ike in my area both times we were on the edge of the HIGH Pressure system. What was suppose to be a south texas landfall ended up being a south east texas landfall (big difference?)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4489
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Right now Texas is very unlikely. Second landfall would most likely be in the north central Gulf or Florida Panhandle, but it looks like conditions may be unfavorable in that area. Too far out to tell, though, it's really Forecast Lounge territory.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I'm seeing a lot more rotation in the sat. presentation. and a big blog of convection where the center would be. Also starting to see outflow developing on the west side which tells me shear is decreasing
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I'm seeing a lot more rotation in the sat. presentation. and a big blog of convection where the center would be. Also starting to see outflow developing on the west side which tells me shear is decreasing
Satellite presentation is indeed indicative of a tropical depression at present, in my opinion.
Having said that, I don't think the will pull the trigger until we have visible satellite confirmation, surface observations, or recon confirmation of a LLC. Also, radar imagery from San Juan doesn't confirm the LLC that appears to exist on the satellite loop.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 941
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
I know that we have to have a storm to develope before we can get a better idea of what it is going to do and where it is going to go. But can somebody give me some idea of how strong the HIGH Pressure may be and how far west it could go and is the northwestern gulf at risk. After going through Hurricane and Ike in my area both times we were on the edge of the HIGH Pressure system. What was suppose to be a south texas landfall ended up being a south east texas landfall (big difference?)
The most recent model runs that I looked at all indicate the ridge eroding to the East which would allow a more NW to N track in the later period.
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Michael
PWS
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I'm checking the San Juan radar storm velocity product. It appears that a vortice is just offshore of the northern coast of Puerto Rico. Middle of the island and about 20-40 miles north. I'll attach a photo as soon as I get it resized.
NW quadrant of the radar where blue and gold meet. In this location for a two hour duration. Mileage rings place the vortice about 45 miles offshore. This is elevated as the San Juan radar site is in or near the mountains near 3000 feet.. That would place the observed vortice around 4000 to 5000 feet using 0.5 elevation on the radar.
This is the composite reflectivity image at the same time. Convection is co-located with the observed vortice. My opinion only.
Edited by danielw (Tue Jul 20 2010 11:43 PM)
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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I see what you're talking about, but that cell in moving NNE. Perhaps just a tornadic supercell?
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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Windshear aloft is between 30 and 40 knots...it is highly unlikely we'll see development in the next 24 hours.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4489
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Based on visible imagery, my best guess of a center is north of the Dominican Republic, around 70.4w 20.5n, but no real low level circulation, if the storm reforms to the east it changes the timeline a bit, but I'm not sure that will happen.
the official position is 70w 20N, which is possible too, but today will be a lot of waiting to see if anything fires up again.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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I'm looking at the visible loop, and 20N 70W looks pretty close to me, but your positioning is plausible too, Mike. Overall, it looks a bit like somethng took a knife to the whole system overnight. says it's still code red, but down to 60%, and I think that's very generous - but then again, I thought 70% last night was too low. Models haven't shifted southward to correspond to a shallower system, though, which is curious. In fact, models (at 2am, I haven't seen the 8am run yet) are in very disturbing agreement, that ultimate landfall will be in the Florida panhandle, near Ft. Walton Beach. That there is so much agreement this far out is alarming.
Edit: Just went to Skeetobyte, which has the 12Z model runs. They all point to the LA/TX border.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Wed Jul 21 2010 08:58 AM)
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