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Center of #90L now pushing inland east of Gulf Shores very much like a T.D. Bands of rain, t-storms, winds and isolated spouts.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 251 (Nicholas) , Major: 266 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1320 (Michael) Major: 1320 (Michael)
 


General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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WesnWylie
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Posts: 155
Loc:
Several Waves in the Caribbean
      #88190 - Sun Jul 18 2010 04:59 PM

I thought I would start a discussion centered on the Caribbean basin, seeing how this
area will likely be the focus for the next several days. There is a lot of waves worth watching.

My own thoughts are posted below.


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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
Re: Several Waves in the Caribbean [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88191 - Sun Jul 18 2010 05:15 PM

I have been particularly watching the area of convection in the Central Caribbean.
Although the shear is somewhat strong in this region, it continues to produce plenty
of storms. I personally give this area a slightly greater chance of developing
than its neighbor to the east of it, which is only at 10%. Why I give it a better chance
than the area that the NHC has highlighted, is due to the Central Caribbean wave
being totally removed from the SAL. Also, from what I can tell, the shear is forecast
to weaken some in a day or two for this wave.

I think the area near the Lesser Antilles will have decent shot at development in about
2 or 3 days, though.

--------------------
2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01


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