Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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What was left of the old centerpoint was north of eastern Dominican Republic at 21/02Z near 19N 69W. Based on satellite data and radar imagery out of San Juan, the active tropical wave seems to be attempting to develop a weak relocated low center more to the East Southeast north of central Puerto Rico at 21/03Z. Still a bit early to tell for certain but the area does have potential for additional slow development. The windshear zone to the north and northwest of the system is still evident in satellite images, but the trend has been for a slow decline in the size and strength of the shear zone based on upper air analysis. The primary key to future motion will be associated with the westward extension of the Atlantic ridge. If it holds, system should move more to the west - if it pulls back to the east, motion will become more northwesterly. The good news is that steering currents are not very strong, so until the shear zone breaks down a little, forward motion is going to be slow.
ED
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html
Been watching that link for the last few hours ... not my favorite loop but it seems to be trying to find a center where you mentioned. It needs a center.... even on vorticity sats it seems stretched out. Yet, tonight it looks like one area might be taking over..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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Good morning everybody! We're all eyeballing the tropical disturbance near the Dominican Republic extending north, east and southeast. We've also read the outlook and discussion via the and they believe in the next 36 to 48 hours it has a 70 percent chance of becoming a depression. In the here and now the shear which happens to lie along its projected track is between 30 and 40 knots and while it is possible for a depression to develop it will not gain veritical depth and will remain a shallow system at best. The shear is forecast to weaken beyond 48 hours and as the disturbance moves closer to FL and into the GOM. It's best chance for development is in the GOM where for the moment shear is light.
The models continue to put the ridge axis between the Bermuda and Mid-Continental (Central US) north of the coast along the northern border states of the Deep South. The strength of these ridges is not as strong as previous weeks and the models continue to hint at a weakness between the two near LA & TX..and right through the oil slick.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
Edited by berrywr (Wed Jul 21 2010 08:02 AM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Invest 97L has become a much weaker and a much more complex system. Circulation of an upper level low centered at 26.6N 71.8W at 21/15Z is hindering the chances for further development of Invest 97L. The ULL is moving west at 12 knots and probably will remain the primary player - could even transition into a subtropical type of system, but doesn't have too much time to do this. Invest 97L has weak cyclonic turning, probably mid-level, near 20.6N 70.9W at 21/15Z - about 150NM east of Great Inagua Island and the Invest area is moving to the west northwest at about 12 knots. Upper level progs keep the ULL moving west for the next 3 days toward the lower Texas coast. A strong southerly shear zone is maintained to the east of the ULL. With the two systems moving in tandem and with the windshear continuing, I'm beginning to think that the current high development chances for 97L are significantly overstated and that a lower probability for additional development may soon be in order.
ED
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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The remains left behind 97L near the Antilles might bear watching, and the wave over the Yucatan too.
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doug
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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The convection over the Antilles certainly bears watching as it moves right behind 97L.
A pretty good chunk of the models try to develop this area in a few days, especially the
model. If 97L does develop however, the overturning of the waters could hinder that area.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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