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Major Hurricane Ian making landfall overnight on western Cuba. Life-threatening conditions underway there now.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 8 (Fiona) , Major: 393 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1447 (Michael) Major: 1447 (Michael)
22.6N 83.6W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 950mb
Moving:
N at 12 mph
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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #88336 - Thu Jul 22 2010 03:35 PM

This storm has plenty of water left between It and South Florida.It will also cross the Gulf Stream which CAN ramp up a storm very quickly.The models should move the track more north on the next runs as the LLC is more north.Anyone in South Florida should watch this system very closely,we don't want a big surprise tomorrow morning.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4476
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #88337 - Thu Jul 22 2010 03:44 PM

Conditions around it would smash any attempt at rapid strengthening, I can't see how it would be anything more than a weak-mid Tropical Storm. The ULL to the west is moving out, but another TUTT to the northeast should stop it from getting too crazy, that and it's moving quickly now. Keeping watch on the system is a good idea regardless.

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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 434
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #88338 - Thu Jul 22 2010 03:56 PM

As noted by everyone TD3 is north of where it *should* be but the ULL kind of sucked/pushed it up there. Now it appears the ULL has moved far enough away to allow the western side to develop. About an hour ago I noticed an increase in storms on that side and now it appears to have some outflow on all sides. If it can warp itself up it might be a pretty strong TS by tomorrow. However right now its still too ragged, with no true center and the ULL is squishing it too much. There seems to be a two highs above it so that should keep the northern motion in check in the long run.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #88340 - Thu Jul 22 2010 03:57 PM

Wow, I just can't help but notice the huge upper ridge building off our S.E. U.S. seaboard. It appears to be what might be the final culprit in a potential dismantling of the TD. The upper high appears to be driving another upper cut off low south and westward, and is already starting to impinge on the TD' s outflow on its northeast side. Am now starting to think that its not the upper low to its west that will shear it apart, but more aptly the dry air it may soon ingest from its north and east! Talk about a squeeze play.

I believe "storm" by tonight, peaking out while approaching S. Fla.( and Keys ) tomorrow late morning, and actually weakening prior to landfall by nightfall. Just one crazy pattern!


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #88341 - Thu Jul 22 2010 04:18 PM

Quick footnote to my last post.....
System is ingesting dry air from several quadrants, and is having a hard time even maintaining current convection. I believe we might soon see the moisture feed via the feeder band dropping south over Cuba, about to be cut off. The terrain over extreme E. Cuba is very mountainous and as the system inches WNWard, this may cut off its only remaining moisture feed. We may well witness nearly all convection nearly drop off, and soon if it can no longer muster a new bursting of connection near it center.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #88343 - Thu Jul 22 2010 04:40 PM

Those of you in the Southern Half of the Florida Peninsula should probably make sure that you have food and water for at least a Tropical Storm event and the possibility of power outages... should TD 3 ramp up.
Power outages and trees falling seem to be the main dangers in Southern Florida with landfalling Tropical Cyclones. Take the time now to prepare... just in case.


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #88344 - Thu Jul 22 2010 04:58 PM

Looking at some of the data it seems that the shear has dropped to 10kts over TD3 as the ULL to the west is moving out faster than expected. The only ingredient missing is a good blowup of convection near the center. If we see that happen, we might be dealing with a stronger system than first thought. There is a fine line between shear and ventilation

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 22 2010 05:00 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: WeatherNut]
      #88347 - Thu Jul 22 2010 05:04 PM

Quote:

Looking at some of the data it seems that the shear has dropped to 10kts over TD3 as the ULL to the west is moving out faster than expected. The only ingredient missing is a good blowup of convection near the center. If we see that happen, we might be dealing with a stronger system than first thought. There is a fine line between shear and ventilation




Exactly my thinking.. the CIMMS shear map shows wind shear about 10-15 knots over the center, 5-10 knots over the systems convection. I find no reason for this not to ramp up into a stronger storm, perhaps a Hurricane as the ULL continues to speed westward, away from TD3. Of course, time will tell, I did expect an upgrade about now, so I'm eating my crow for the afternoon

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 434
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: allan]
      #88350 - Thu Jul 22 2010 05:29 PM

The shear might have dropped but right now TD#3 is a mess, its getting squished big time by the high to the NNE and the ULL to the W. It actually looked alot better earlier this afternoon. There is a small window of development and there appears to be some moisture building on the western side, but the eastern side has dropped off. Without a nice circular core I can't see how this thing could ramp up given the short time. At this point its 24 hours away from a Keys/S FL landfall and its only a 35 mph depression.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 929
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: JMII]
      #88351 - Thu Jul 22 2010 06:17 PM

TD #3 is still a mess in the latest Floater vis pics. I can't even determine a closed surface circulation in the last couple of frames. The surrounding environment is looking rather hostile to any further development in the short term. Long term? Very slow development.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MichaelA]
      #88352 - Thu Jul 22 2010 06:20 PM

We now have Bonnie.Updated at 6:15.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MichaelA]
      #88355 - Thu Jul 22 2010 06:22 PM

LLC clearly well defined, wind shear around 10 to 15 knots, not hostile at all.. We have Tropical Storm Bonnie!

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DURING THE PAST HOUR INDICATE THAT SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPRESSION HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...AND THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: JMII]
      #88356 - Thu Jul 22 2010 06:26 PM

it's going to be a slow go but what a difference a day makes in regard to shear...it has considerably lightened and shifted NW over FL.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 929
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: allan]
      #88357 - Thu Jul 22 2010 06:28 PM

Then that would place the center slightly North of 23ยบ under/near the convective flare up. I was looking at the area near the 5 PM coords and seeing nothing. Color me wrong again.

Looks like the center reformed closer to the convective flare up. Statement coords are 22.9N; 75.4W.

--------------------
Michael

PWS

Edited by MichaelA (Thu Jul 22 2010 06:33 PM)


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southbeachdude
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 1
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: berrywr]
      #88358 - Thu Jul 22 2010 06:29 PM

I am interested to see how long the motion continues at 315 NW at 14mph.....

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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 419
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: southbeachdude]
      #88360 - Thu Jul 22 2010 07:14 PM

Model track data seems to be in good agreement that it will brush the south coast. Mets are forecasting rain in the Orlando area Friday into Saturday. Thank God. We need the rain and it has been hotter than H here!

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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rgd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #88361 - Thu Jul 22 2010 07:19 PM

Yeah the only thing this is going to do for us here is make it cooler and give us some much needed rain.The area with 40mph winds was very very small right at the center.

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: southbeachdude]
      #88362 - Thu Jul 22 2010 07:31 PM

Hello from south central MO.
Remarkable model consensus. They must have a pretty good handle on Bonnie. Nice CDO burst in the last few frames. Appears to me to be slightly north of track plot. She's moving too quick for major intensification by the time she skirts S FL.Good time to dry run your hurricane plan for the remainder of the season.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #88363 - Thu Jul 22 2010 07:41 PM

Bonnie is currently moving well north of the model tracks (all of them).

To those who say it's decoupled, might I suggest investing some money in glasses?
Over the last three hours, deep convection has grown tremendously over the LLC. It's getting its act together, rather rapidly...

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 929
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Hugh]
      #88364 - Thu Jul 22 2010 07:55 PM

The overall motion is NW with deep convection East and NE of the center and a small area of convection has begun to form West of the center. Still pulling itself together. The surrounding flow is pretty much ESE to WNW and rather deep. The models all show the ridge persisting North of Bonnie which will keep it on a WNWerly track in the short term.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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