danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Bonnie is currently moving well north of the model tracks (all of them).
To those who say it's decoupled, might I suggest investing some money in glasses? 
Over the last three hours, deep convection has grown tremendously over the LLC. It's getting its act together, rather rapidly...
Typical? Fujiwara effect.
Bonnie rotates counterclockwise around or ULL to the west. Now will Fujiwara rotate ULL to the NE of Bonnie? Time will tell.
Slightly uncommon to see 3 lows in close proximity.
All of the latest models that I have double checked are in a tight swath between Houma/ Grand Isle,LA and Waveland,MS.
Current XTRP or xtrapolated movement is pointed at the MS/ AL Border.
Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 23 2010 12:01 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
Typical? Fujiwara effect.
Bonnie rotates counterclockwise around or ULL to the west. Now will Fujiwara rotate ULL to the NE of Bonnie? Time will tell.
Slightly uncommon to see 3 lows in close proximity.
All of the latest models that I have double checked are in a tight swath between Houma/ Grand Isle,LA and Waveland,MS.
Current XTRP or xtrapolated movement is pointed at the MS/ AL Border.
Ah, I hadn't considered Fujiwara. Good point. The ULL is forecast to move out, isn't it?
I've never seen this many lows in close proximity, but I'm sure it's happened before.
It'll be interesting to see the next model runs. Even if the current motion is due to Fujiwara, wouldn't the models have seen that?
AL/MS border would put a serious damper on my weekend trip to Gulfport!!! 
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Fri Jul 23 2010 12:08 AM)
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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If you look at other past systems that have formed in the area where Bonnie is, it is not uncommon for them to move northwestward before turning back to the west or sometimes even southwest. A good example is . I don't remember if there was an upper-low affecting or not, but did something similar to this. I have a feeling the models will catch on to what Bonnie is doing by the 06Z model run. I do think that Bonnie is beginning to move to the west-northwest for the last few frames.
Edited by WesnWylie (Fri Jul 23 2010 12:17 AM)
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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Ah the Fujiwara effect. I thought that ocurred only with two tropical systems, not with an ULL.
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allan
Weather Master
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Bonnie maybe trying to organize some more tonight, I'm very interested to see what it does tonight during DMAX. Satellite presentation, is a bit ragged, but not bad.. TD2 was much worse then this is lol..
If you click on the attachment, I made my first run on the system. Oh and to answer your question on if had an ULL next to it, I think it did, but it was a bit further out then this is from Bonnie; however, the ULL has really been on the move today. It crossed Miami to the Keys in just 3 hours. It'll be interesting to see what the models do if the ULL continues to stay away from Bonnie.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Yeah this is sort of deja vu down here in Miami... I keep trying to remember the details also but too busy looping loops to worry on it now.
Either way there is supposedly a big high to her north yet she keeps slipping north.
Interesting theory on why ... fuji wara... not sure need to stare at the WV loop ...
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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WesnWylie
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Wow!  The models have REALLY shifted east with this latest run. Either they have caught on to something, or they are very confused. I don't know about the MS/AL landfall that they are showing but it is possible. You just never know with these systems. 
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rgd
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Wow! The models have REALLY shifted east with this latest run. Either they have caught on to something, or they are very confused. I don't know about the MS/AL landfall that they are showing but it is possible. You just never know with these systems.
They only shifted a little north cause of the relocation of the center but still the same type of track just moved north a little to makeup for the center.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Well... Bonnie is now just north of due east of the first forecast point from the 5pm advisory, and by a fair amount. It MIGHT have shifted a bit to the left in the last few frames, but it was actually moving almost due north right before that so that the net effect is still NNW. Unless it turns due west - and rapidly - or turns WSW - it's going to make landfall along the mainland. This may actually be a good thing, because it will weaken the system while its over land. However, I do remember the last storm to form where Bonnie is, and what happened to it after it cross the state. Thankfully, upperlevel winds aren't conducive to rapid intensification in the Gulf.
Edit to comment on latest models... I'm getting a very bad sense of deja vu.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Fri Jul 23 2010 01:23 AM)
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MikeC
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Tropical Storm Bonnie is located just south of Great Exuma Island in the Bahamas, and is holding with a small core just as a minimal Tropical Storm at present.
There is an interesting interaction going on with the system an upper level low to moving toward the west, along with a ridge building in from the northwest. It's a bit of a race between getting pulled up further north and being kicked further west by the ridge building. As the upper level low moves away from it, more effects from the ridge to the northeast will be felt. So in short it has some chance to move a bit more northward, and then be kicked more northwest later. The core of the system will likely be kept small, so if there are any surprises it would likely be a result of that.
The center has relocated north of earlier projections and with these changes may landfall tomorrow in the south Florida mainland, likely in the upper keys and south of Miami. Most likely, Folks in Miami will experience wind and rain of low to mid Tropical Storm force winds, and north of there will get some wind and rain, but the storm will be moving rather rapidly across the state.
Beyond that, it looks like eastern Louisiana or Mississippi may have to deal with the storm in the Gulf, but at this far out with the extremely complex interactions between the upper level low, ridge, and this system it has a very low confidence.
Overnight, because of the lack of visible satellite, following the apparent blowup in convection may not be indicative of where the center is. It could even lose it entirely overnight.
If you are in the Keys or south Florida I highly recommend to check up on the storm in the morning. However, otherwise expect a nasty, but entirely bearable day.
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rgd
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I agree with your pretty much on this.Nice tropical rain is needed here in florida and the wind is not going to be that much of a problem.
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lunkerhunter
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Quite surprised there's not more precaution going on. Warm water temps, gulf stream....history. The convection has blown up pretty good past 90min and quickly seeing wrap around rotation.
(A reminder that is Hurricanes without the hype. Edited to remove comments that belong in the Lounge.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Jul 23 2010 03:29 AM)
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MikeC
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Quote:
Quite surprised there's not more precaution going on. Warm water temps, gulf stream....history. The convection has blown up pretty good past 90min and quickly seeing wrap around rotation. I see a Cat 1 by morning.
What the water vapor imagery shows is a good hint why it's not even close to likely. It's much more likely to weaken overnight because of the rapidly approaching ridging to the northeast of the system. Notice the dry air slamming (and sandwiching) the storm from the west, and how the banding features earlier have weakened greatly, and how the convection is becoming elongated.
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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Quote:
Quite surprised there's not more precaution going on. Warm water temps, gulf stream....history. The convection has blown up pretty good past 90min and quickly seeing wrap around rotation. I see a Cat 1 by morning.
Yikes, looks like that blow up is already being sheared. The long range Miami radar is showing no rotation. I see no TS sustained winds anywhere in FL. It looks more like an open wave to me.
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lunkerhunter
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I would disagree. could ride that finger of humidity WNW. yes an impressive push of dry air but it seems to have smacked into a wall and spreading outward W and E.
the first rains are hitting SE FL.
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Hugh
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Yikes, looks like that blow up is already being sheared. The long range Miami radar is showing no rotation. I see no TS sustained winds anywhere in FL. It looks more like an open wave to me.
I'm seeing the outer bands - including rotation - on GRLevel3.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MikeC
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Tropical Storm Warnings have moved north on both sides of Florida, extended north on the east coast to Deerfield Beach, and on the west coast to Englewood.
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Hugh
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Tropical Storm Warnings have moved north on both sides of Florida, extended north on the east coast to Deerfield Beach, and on the west coast to Englewood.
and long-range track shifted northward very slightly... landfall now projected near the mouth of the Mississippi. They admit that further northward shifts may be necessary, too.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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Thanks to Mike I'm going to keep my comments brief; he's right...okay if he goes down, I go down with him... What's a few mph and a touch of organization equal...Tropical Storm Bonnie.
As I stated last night at this time there is a big upper level low Bonnie must contend with for the near term. This is truly an "Upper" low; it is above 500 milibars or about 18,000 feet up give or take a few feet; however is reflected quite well at 300 millibars or about 30,000 feet. This ULL is moving WSW as of this typing and streamers from convective cells continue south to north near Bonnie.
Wind shear analysis has a 30 to 50 knot bullseye over the central and north part of FL from southeast to northwest. I have some concerns that Bonnie in the near term will be affected more if this WSW movement continues.
Bonnie as of 12:15 am ET...is north of progged forecast track points by about 1 degree latitude.
It has been said many, many times before that intensity forecasting is still more an art form than science. The model guidance does not bring this system to a hurricane though one model does peak Bonnie at 60 knots. I'm not going to dare guess what Bonnie will do until she's away from FL and where the ULL and shear are when it re-emerges in the GOM.
Bonnie will be on the move...currently 14 mph and will be in deep easterly layered winds...a little rare for around here...but that hot upper ridge over the SE USA will have a say in Bonnie's future after the ULL gets out of the way.
Certainly this is not good news for the northern Gulf coast and well ahead of the system LA will once again have problems with coastal flooding due to a long fetch of easterly winds ahead of the system and as gradience tightens between the surface ridge and Bonnie.
Hurricane Bonnie? Maybe...but for the moment...the upper air isn't ideal for Bonnie to be much else if that.
I reinterate it is important with developing tropical systems that guidance, upper air observations, surface observations will not be in agreement in the near term. Bonnie's structure simply has not gained enough vertical depth for the models to grasp and there was no sampling of the environment tonight of the track in front of Bonnie as there was last night.
We'll have a better grasp of what remains of Bonnie after traversing the state of FL; if Bonnie moves at the clip she's moving now, it will be a short trip over land. Stay tune...
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Just for clarification, the storm is about 275 miles southeast of Miami. The circulation is low-level, i.e., probably below 10KFT. At 275 miles with a 0.5 degree antenna elevation angle, the height of the radar beam is probably at least 25-30KFT above MSL. Somebody else can do the exact math, but my point is that the Miami radar would not see the low-level rotation because the radar beam is above that rotation at that distance from the radar site.
ED
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