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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88394 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:02 AM

appeas recon is in Bonnie coc now.. and it appears that the surface center may be to the sw of convection and the center may be on the wsw side of the big island there in Bahama's... wsw of city of Congo Town.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: berrywr]
      #88395 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:06 AM

Quote:

Bonnie as of 12:15 am ET...is north of progged forecast track points by about 1 degree latitude.




What strikes me is that Bonnie currently seems to be more than a degree due East if not slightly ENE of the projected 8 AM position (according to the 11 PM update).

Quote:

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.4N 78.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.




Now granted, for the "center" I 'm using just to the SW of the apparent blow-up in convection seen in the water vapor and AVN loops (yes, I know the pitfalls of this). And of course, to prove how misleading these sat images can be, the latest recon has the center even lower than I was estimating (thx Storm Hunter).

Still, Bonnie is going to need to start moving due west soon, or the NHC may need to adjust the forecast even more to the north (east).

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08

Edited by cjzydeco (Fri Jul 23 2010 02:17 AM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: cjzydeco]
      #88396 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:12 AM

appears center is near
Time: 05:57:00Z
Coordinates: 23.7N 77.8833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,573 meters (~ 5,161 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press: 1009.5 mb (~ 29.81 inHg)

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #88398 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:25 AM

doesn't appear to be TS Bonnie on first pass... ***only thing i can think is there may be two centers... and a more stronger center could be forming under the blob of convection to the NE of this center***

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 06:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2010
Storm Name: Bonnie (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 5:55:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°46'N 77°50'W (23.7667N 77.8333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 95 miles (153 km) to the SSW (199°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,500m (4,921ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 22kts (~ 25.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 74 nautical miles (85 statute miles) to the NW (324°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 71° at 38kts (From the ENE at ~ 43.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the NW/NNW (326°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,500m (4,921ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the northwest quadrant at 5:33:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the NNW (339°) from the flight level center

If theres only 1 center... then the stuff to the NE is s a strong mid level low that looks to be an impressive CDO with decent banding... if this dies out in next few hrs... we may know...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jul 23 2010 02:31 AM)


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #88400 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:40 AM

Quote:

...If theres only 1 center... then the stuff to the NE is s a strong mid level low that looks to be an impressive CDO with decent banding... if this dies out in next few hrs... we may know...




Stupid question/comment...Do they ever send the airplane to the wrong place?

One heck of a good imitation of a tropical storm at the center of all that convection and banding.


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #88401 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:47 AM Attachment (364 downloads)

Looking at sats... the convection is very well defined near Nassau Bahama... with recon showing one center to the SW outside of the convection... i'm looking for surface data to prove that i think Bonnie may have reformed to the NE under that convection... there appears to be two hot towers in recent sats that have stayed well centered so to speak in that area of storms and is very symmetrical for a couple of hours. Nice banding on this feature... recon just completed the SE Outbound leg... turning north and heading towards the Nassau.

**one thing i noted... to the NE of all of this... there appears to be some strong winds aloft coming towards Bonnie..** G-IV flew yesterday evening in GOM and into the Atlantic around Bonnie.. so we should be getting good data into models now until landfall in GOM

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jul 23 2010 02:47 AM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #88404 - Fri Jul 23 2010 03:03 AM Attachment (329 downloads)

Quote:

Quote:

...If theres only 1 center... then the stuff to the NE is s a strong mid level low that looks to be an impressive CDO with decent banding... if this dies out in next few hrs... we may know...




Stupid question/comment...Do they ever send the airplane to the wrong place?

One heck of a good imitation of a tropical storm at the center of all that convection and banding.





actually pre-flight briefing which happens about hr before takeoff... has a "target area" they think will be where when they arrive on scene they should find there invest/low/storm, etc... When they arrive on scene... the on board radar which is located in front of C-130 for Air Force planes and underneath on P-3's... will give them a real time look to the Met. on board... who will direct the pilot to what they think is center... the AF planes all have screens at each position on the aircraft so they all know whats going on and all agree and know what to do/jobs... the navigator usually will then pick out the butterfly invest pattern they will fly... and the Met. on board will make and ask for special procedures if something comes up... like a circle in the center... or a stuff like that... usually the met will ask when they arrive in center area.... they will give directions to pilot.. "turn left 10 degrees...etc. so they pass dead center.. and when they pass... Met./wx officer will tell dropsonde tech to release the GPS dropsonde... and they will monitor via RF the GPS dropping to the surface.. all while HDOB is running and the SMRF is running... all lasting about 10 hrs or so per flight. vortex data is reviewed and check and then add reports and then sent VIA sat Internet to servers for NHC to use.... so in reality there not sent to wrong area... but with systems like Bonnie... things can change very quickly. Its up to crew on board to find and report there infromation back to NHC. They do have Sat phns... and Sat Internet on board if they need to talk to NHC or whomever.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jul 23 2010 03:43 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #88406 - Fri Jul 23 2010 05:22 AM

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...BONNIE MOVING FASTER TOWARD SOUTHERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 78.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: danielw]
      #88407 - Fri Jul 23 2010 05:35 AM

Based on the location of the last 2 center fixes by RECON. It appears that the center of Bonnie will pass just south of the mainland. This would place Bonnie on a track over the Keys and over the Florida Straits.
In other words Bonnie would be passing over the Gulf Stream for a longer period of time than if she were to pass over the mainland. Window of possible/ probable intensification would be longer.


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berrywr
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: danielw]
      #88408 - Fri Jul 23 2010 05:41 AM

Satellite imagery early this morning shows Bonnie elongated NW to SE as wind shear continues to impact Bonnie. The system continues to move at a pretty good clip to the WNW. Wind Shear analysis continues to depict strong winds aloft over the state of FL and nearing 30 and 40 knot upper winds and despite the ULL moving westward the speed of the system is fast enough to continue to be impacted by the upper environment. Radar imagery at 0.5 degrees has the circulation on scope however the circulation is not completely wrapped around the system supporting NHC discussion at the possibility the system may become an open wave.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: berrywr]
      #88409 - Fri Jul 23 2010 06:56 AM

Mets here in Orlando are predicting low 90's, high clouds, and maybe some rain. They don't see much chance of intensification as she moves through the straights, maybe a little. Maybe some intensification as she moves into the central gulf. Let's hope this low intensification forecast holds true. Nobody wants to see a strong storn hit the gulf right now, more than ever.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #88410 - Fri Jul 23 2010 07:33 AM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 11:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2010
Storm Name: Bonnie (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 11:09:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°49'N 79°20'W (24.8167N 79.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 72 miles (115 km) to the ESE (106°) from Key Largo, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,499m (4,918ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 23kts (~ 26.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NW (307°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 70° at 34kts (From the ENE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 46 nautical miles (53 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.05 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 9:51:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the E (88°) from the flight level center


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kromdog
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #88411 - Fri Jul 23 2010 07:53 AM

Would not just keep an eye on the exact storm track. Most of the convection is to the North and North East. The Tampa-Clearwater area is expecting blustery conditions this evening with heavy thunderstorms.

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doug
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: berrywr]
      #88413 - Fri Jul 23 2010 08:30 AM

The system becoming declassified would not be a big surprise considering the shape it is in. Is it me or is that ULL conslidating?

--------------------
doug


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JMII
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: kromdog]
      #88414 - Fri Jul 23 2010 08:32 AM

Bonnie (if you can still call it that) really got squished between the high to the NE and low to the SW. The strong is elongated and moving at very fast clip. Winds in the middle Keys are 14 mph gusting to 35 mph. Considering the storm is moving at almost 20 mph itself this will be over before it even begins. All the weather is so displaced from the center there is almost no way this will be a TS by the time it reaches the west cost. Pretty much a non-event aside from a strong breeze and some passing showers. We have had afternoon thunderstorms produce worst conditions. Based on the radar it appears that the center will come ashore in Coral Gables/South Beach versus the upper Keys. Still seems to be tracking north of forecast just like yesterday.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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kromdog
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: JMII]
      #88415 - Fri Jul 23 2010 08:44 AM

Quote:

Bonnie (if you can still call it that) really got squished between the high to the NE and low to the SW. The strong is elongated and moving at very fast clip. Winds in the middle Keys are 14 mph gusting to 35 mph. Considering the storm is moving at almost 20 mph itself this will be over before it even begins. All the weather is so displaced from the center there is almost no way this will be a TS by the time it reaches the west cost. Pretty much a non-event aside from a strong breeze and some passing showers. We have had afternoon thunderstorms produce worst conditions. Based on the radar it appears that the center will come ashore in Coral Gables/South Beach versus the upper Keys. Still seems to be tracking north of forecast just like yesterday.





I agree that it appears to be tracking slighting more north. I also agree that here on the West Coast we get afternoon storms that gust well over 40kt on a regular basis.


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: JMII]
      #88416 - Fri Jul 23 2010 08:54 AM

Quote:

Based on the radar it appears that the center will come ashore in Coral Gables/South Beach versus the upper Keys. Still seems to be tracking north of forecast just like yesterday.




But is seems that you (and I, and others) think the "center" is in a different location than the NHC. Based on radar, I'm thinking more along 25.1 N 79.3 W, compared the the NHC's loc of 24.7 N 79.8 W.

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: cjzydeco]
      #88417 - Fri Jul 23 2010 09:09 AM

Looking at Miami radar indicates that initial landfall will be just N of Key Largo and traverse the peninsula over the Everglades. Weather over the southern half of FL will deteriorate and, with some afternoon heating in Central FL and the instability introduced by Bonnie, the thunderstorms will pop up. The environment is still not conducive to intensification and the relatively rapid motion of Bonnie will also inhibit strengthening.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: kromdog]
      #88418 - Fri Jul 23 2010 09:11 AM

Miami Storm relative velocity loop is showing what appears to be 2 or 3 vortices rotating around the center. Northernmost vortice is just east of Miami while the southwestern most vortice is just east of Key Largo. Look for the empty circular areas.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gen_nids.cgi?...om=&center=


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stormtiger
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Re: Tropical Storm Bonnie Approaches Extreme Southern Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #88421 - Fri Jul 23 2010 09:53 AM

When you look at satellite loops of Bonnie, you get a sense that you are watching a mirror image of a dying hurricane as it races past Nova Scotia as it merges with the Easterlies.

I think under the present circumstances, bonnie won't insensify much if at all. In fact if it weakened into an open wave, I wouldn't be surprised.

Here in La. they are predicting some blusterly winds and some rain, but we could use the rain and some cooler temps.

As for the oil, the fears are it could get pushed more inland, but maybe that won't happen and the choppy seas will help agitate the GOM and it will in fact break the oil down and help it dispurse.


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