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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #88454 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:11 PM

Quote:

C**interesting the second vortex fix was done over land by the Air Force before they departed and went home** Do you still drop a GPS dropsonde over land?




In that part of the Everglades? Why not? It is very sparsely populated, if at all, in that area.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #88455 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:16 PM

Most if not all the moisture is NW , by quite a distance, from the center. The storm is drawing dry air into itself from the SW and that air is wrapping around, and has virtuallly killed any decent convection on the north and east sides. The "core" of the system,if that is what it is, does have convection immediately north, west and south. Everglades City had a pretty good shower recently which was contained in the SW band accompanying the center. The center itself should be exiting near the Lee/Collier (Bonita Beach) area soon. Looking out to the west however, there is little for the system to draw on to maintain itself. It will have to re-generate convection based on the GOM, or it will not survive.

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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: doug]
      #88457 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:24 PM

I think Bonnie will make it into the GOM as a Tropical Depression since it will be hitting water in about 1/1.5 hours. We'll see what the 18Z models say but I don't see the system going any further east than Louisiana for its landfall. In fact, the 12Z ECWMF shows the system moving into Texas. Conditions will likely inhibit Bonnie from getting above Tropical Storm(if that-I even wonder) intensity before landfall. But from what I can tell, the center is moving nearly due west.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: MichaelA]
      #88458 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:25 PM

Quote:

Quote:

C**interesting the second vortex fix was done over land by the Air Force before they departed and went home** Do you still drop a GPS dropsonde over land?
In that part of the Everglades? Why not? It is very sparsely populated, if at all, in that area.



Not normally... even over the Everglades. No drops over land and I believe water drops are announced over a common radio channel.. Marine Band and Aeronautical Band.


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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #88460 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:30 PM

I guess I stand corrected, the latest models move it northwest. I have a question, however. Since Bonnie is and will stay weak, what will take it to the northwest so quickly-I mean that is a sharp turn for a system that is currently moving nearly due west?

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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88461 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:37 PM

I am surprised that we have just had our first wind gusts and rain related to Bonnie. Being in south Orlando I wasn't expecting anything. Mike should be seeing them also.

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gsand
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 31
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: k___g]
      #88462 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:48 PM

I'm in Palm Bay and we're having a pretty good little cell go through right now, moderate rain and winds around 20-25. 3rd one since around 1 pm. Melbourne radar shows some bands coming in off the water along the Space and Treasure coasts:

--------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991 Erin 1995 Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2021 Forecast- 15/6/3

Edited by gsand (Fri Jul 23 2010 02:49 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: gsand]
      #88466 - Fri Jul 23 2010 03:14 PM

Convective cells are on the NW side of the Center. Easily seen in this visible satellite photo.



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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: danielw]
      #88467 - Fri Jul 23 2010 03:18 PM

danielw, is it just me or does the center of Bonnie already seem to be turning to the northwest?

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88469 - Fri Jul 23 2010 03:33 PM

Quote:

danielw, is it just me or does the center of Bonnie already seem to be turning to the northwest?




Haven't really looked at the direction. Based on where Bonnie made landfall and where she is now I would estimate a WNW or 290 heading.
I'm more intersested in what she does after the center moves offshore.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: danielw]
      #88470 - Fri Jul 23 2010 03:33 PM

Still a fairly well defined small circulation there with some convection trying to form within it. Could be interesting as it moves into the Gulf and gets some separation from land this PM.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: MichaelA]
      #88472 - Fri Jul 23 2010 03:48 PM

Personally, the radar presentation begs the question os whether this thing is over. Virtually no convection is occurring on the west as the center emerges into the GOM. The dense rain area north of the center is breaking up. The dry air is strangling the moisutre(energy) from the system. It is dying.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: doug]
      #88474 - Fri Jul 23 2010 04:07 PM

Quote:

Personally, the radar presentation begs the question os whether this thing is over. Virtually no convection is occurring on the west as the center emerges into the GOM. The dense rain area north of the center is breaking up. The dry air is strangling the moisutre(energy) from the system. It is dying.




To paraphrase a line from Star Trek VI... I can confirm the location of Bonnie. I cannot confirm the existence of Bonnie. Tampa radar now shows no evidence of a spin. The visible satellite loop shows high clouds racing off to the northwest, with perhaps some very minor rotation around the coast. Infrared/AVN imagery shows a very disorganized mess, but no evidence of even a weak circulation, at any levels really. Other satellites loops show similar things... lots of clouds, but no longer any organization.

It's possible that there is a closed low somewhere in that mess, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if the 5pm advisory declared Bonnie to be post-tropical (the new technical term for dead).

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: Hugh]
      #88475 - Fri Jul 23 2010 04:13 PM

Well I am sitting in my office in South Fort Myers, (about as close to where the "LLC" is supposed to be as possible, and we have dense overcast, light rain and NO WIND...These things are classified based on ground level wind speed and we have had no wind all day...nice rain storm however.

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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: Ed in Va]
      #88477 - Fri Jul 23 2010 04:30 PM

Has anyone been looking at the Caribbean disturbance today? Its looking better than the past few days. I think the NHC will start keeping tabs on this area in the next day or two if the convection continues.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: Ed in Va]
      #88478 - Fri Jul 23 2010 04:34 PM

Well, the 5pm forecast is out and it still calls for restrengthening. Winds are estimated at 30kts now, making Bonnie a depression. I can wait for the discussion...

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #88479 - Fri Jul 23 2010 04:41 PM

part of 5pm... Based on models... shear just doesn't appear it will let up... very slim chance of returning to TS prior to landfall... it could happen.. but chances are low

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
BEFORE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...DEGENERATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Jasonch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 42
Loc: Texas
Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88480 - Fri Jul 23 2010 04:54 PM

Quote:

Has anyone been looking at the Caribbean disturbance today? Its looking better than the past few days. I think the NHC will start keeping tabs on this area in the next day or two if the convection continues.




Now that bonnie is almost history is there anything else that will be brewing in the short term.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #88481 - Fri Jul 23 2010 04:57 PM

Quote:

part of 5pm... Based on models... shear just doesn't appear it will let up... very slim chance of returning to TS prior to landfall... it could happen.. but chances are low





Given that the satellite presentation just continues to deteriorate with what is left of Bonnie, I think it is highly likely that degeneration will occur in the next 12 hours. Even though the ULL has moved quite a ways away from Bonnie, the combination of shear and land interaction have just been too much for it to survive.

Ironically, I am seeing some thunder and light rain right now... the effects of the sheared off clouds from Bonnie.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: Hugh]
      #88483 - Fri Jul 23 2010 05:12 PM

Quote:

Well, the 5pm forecast is out and it still calls for restrengthening. Winds are estimated at 30kts now, making Bonnie a depression. I can wait for the discussion...




Personally I think its been a depression since the 2PM advisory. I can understand the guessing when the storm is over water, but they have plenty of land based data collection points and none of them supported a TS. Highest wind speed at Big Carlos Pass (S. Ft Myers) = 22 mph/ gust to 29. Marco Island 22 mph. Tampa Bay 25 / gusts to 35. West Palm Beach gust to 26. Belle Glade gust to 29 mph.

There is pretty much nothing left of Bonnie, its just moving too fast and get blasted by shear.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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