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MikeCAdministrator
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TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida
      #88293 - Thu Jul 22 2010 07:22 AM

11AM EDT UPDATE - 23 July 2010
At 11AM, Bonnie was located just offshore due east of Homestead, Florida, and was moving to the west northwest to northwest. Landfall should occur around Noon EDT. Fowey Rocks reported winds of 46mph gusting to 52mph so Tropical Storm status is confirmed. NHC forecasts a continued rapid motion to the west northwest. Bonnie remains very disorganized and could become an open wave in the Gulf of Mexico.

Active convection has persisted in a stationary area south of the Dominican Republic near 16N 72W. The area is currently under northerly shear, but the shear is expected to decrease quite a bit by Saturday evening. Just another area to watch.
ED

7:00 AM EDT Update 23 July 2010
Bonnie is approaching Florida this morning, moving extremely fast for a storm at 18mph, and will be in and out fairly quick. It has remained weak overnight, and is barely a tropical storm.

Landfall appears to be between the middle/upper Keys and Florida City, with all of the convection/rain to the north of the center.

Rain will be seen in most of south Florida, and parts of Central Florida (more rain toward west Central Florida than east).

Once in the Gulf those in the Central to Eastern Gulf of Mexico will want to watch the progress of the system, but conditions appear to be hostile there as well which will likely keep Bonnie a Tropical Storm.

Dual Radar recording of Bonnie Approach to south Florida (Flhurricane recording)

98L has moved inland and is no longer being tracked.


Bonnie Event Related Links


float3latest.gif stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2010&storm=3 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Bonnie
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Bonnie


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Bonnie (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Bonnie (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Bonnie

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Bonnie
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Bonnie -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Miami, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

9:20 PM EDT Update 22 July 2010
Tropical Storm Bonnie is located just south of Great Exuma Island in the Bahamas, and is holding with a small core just as a minimal Tropical Storm at present.

There is an interesting interaction going on with the system an upper level low to moving toward the west, along with a ridge building in from the northwest. It's a bit of a race between getting pulled up further north and being kicked further west by the ridge building. As the upper level low moves away from it, more effects from the ridge to the northeast will be felt. So in short it has some chance to move a bit more northward, and then be kicked more northwest later. The core of the system will likely be kept small, so if there are any surprises it would likely be a result of that.

The center has relocated north of earlier projections and with these changes may landfall tomorrow in the south Florida mainland, likely in the upper keys and south of Miami. Most likely, Folks in Miami will experience wind and rain of low to mid Tropical Storm force winds, and north of there will get some wind and rain, but the storm will be moving rather rapidly across the state.
Beyond that, it looks like eastern Louisiana or Mississippi may have to deal with the storm in the Gulf, but at this far out with the extremely complex interactions between the upper level low, ridge, and this system it has a very low confidence.

Overnight, because of the lack of visible satellite, following the apparent blowup in convection may not be indicative of where the center is. It could even lose it entirely overnight.

If you are in the Keys or south Florida I highly recommend to check up on the storm in the morning for anything that changes. Most likely you can expect a nasty, but entirely bearable day, and it appears that this should not be very Tornadic.




98L Event Related Links


float4latest.gif stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2010&storm=4 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Invest 98
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Invest 98


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Invest 98 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Invest 98 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Invest 98

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Invest 98
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Invest 98 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



6:20 PM EDT Update 22 July 2010
Data from Aircraft reconnaissance has found enough winds to support upgrading TD#3 to Tropical Storm Bonnie. The second named storm of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.



It is currently moving northwest at 14MPH, and the position is a bit further north than the 5PM Position, it is possible watches/warnings may be extended northward along the Florida Coastline later tonight.



11:00 AM EDT Update 22 July 2010
Tropical Depression 3 has formed, forecast track clips Key West midday tomorrow and enters the Gulf, nearing Western Louisiana later. Intensity is kept low for now.

A Tropical Storm Watch Has Been Issued for the East Coast of Florida
From North of Golden Beach to Jupiter Inlet Including Lake
Okeechobee.

Summary of Watches and Warnings in Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in Effect For...
* Central and Northwestern Bahamas
* for the Florida East Coast from Golden Beach Southward Including
The Entire Florida Keys and Florida Bay...and Along the West Coast
Of Florida Northward to Bonita Beach

8:45 AM EDT Update 22 July 2010
Tropical Depression 3 Forms in the Bahamas.

Advisories on the system (as a depression or possible Tropical Storm) begin at 11AM, and watches/warnings will be issued for the Bahamas and South Florida at 11. Movement is generally west northwest.

Details to come closer to 11AM EDT.

There is also a 50% chance for the wave in the bay of campeche to become a depression as well, and may before the day is over. It would make landfall tomorrow night or Saturday in Northeastern Mexico.



Original Update
This morning, the wave in the southeast Bahamas (97L) has survived, but is still being affected by, shear from an upper level low/TUTT to the northwest of the system. However, it is looking much better this morning and now has a 70% chance to develop into a depression or storm. In fact is is very likely the National Hurricane Center will begin advisories at 11.

In fact, it could become a depression or storm at any time today. Recon is scheduled to check it out this afternoon. Those in south Florida and the Keys will want to monitor it for any changes.

The low remained stronger than expected earlier in the week, and now is likely to keep it on the weaker side through today. There still is a 40% chance of development for this system, but it has little chance to go beyond a tropical depression or low end tropical storm even into the Gulf. Most all of the convection of the wave is on the east side, instead of near the axis of the wave. The system looks better this morning, and has a very good chance to develop into a depression or storm today.

Most likely it will remain weak and move near Cuba's north coast, and to the south of Florida, bringing some rain. If it does develop into a depression or storm, it will likely be closer to South Florida.

Once in the gulf the motion depends on how strong the storm gets. Central Gulf through the entire part of Louisiana is the highest chance right now. If the system stay weak throughout the gulf, it begins to enter Texas into the equation. If the system gains more strength than anticipated chances go up for further east. If it develops before nearing Florida, chances go up for the central Gulf.


98L is fighting time over water to develop, it has 40% chance of development before making landfall, probably bringing more rain to northeastern Mexico, that's already seen two systems this year.




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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #88294 - Thu Jul 22 2010 08:13 AM

Recon is scheduled to go out to the system this afternoon, chances are now 70% and I updated the main page article to reflect it.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #88295 - Thu Jul 22 2010 08:14 AM

"Best Track" is referring to 97L as a depression, which means we may see the Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings go up today.

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M.A.
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #88296 - Thu Jul 22 2010 08:39 AM

Looks like the NHC just upgraded 97 to 100%.

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Hugh
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: M.A.]
      #88297 - Thu Jul 22 2010 08:48 AM

Quote:

Looks like the NHC just upgraded 97 to 100%.




Yet, they haven't decided what the winds are. The STWO says it will either be a depression OR a storm.
I guess part of that depends upon whether it strengthens in the next 2 hours before advisories are issued, of course. Given the conservative nature of the NHC these days, I'd bet that they'll called it TD Three until recon confirms that Bonnie has formed. It's really splitting hairs because tropical storm watches/warnings will be required for the Bahamas and southern Florida regardless of whether it's TD Three or TS Bonnie at this point.

Now, models will begin to mean something...

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Hugh]
      #88298 - Thu Jul 22 2010 08:54 AM

I supect they will issues based on suface data from bahamas for TS if they can get TS force winds... If not they may stick with TD and wait until this afternoon to upgrade... regardless.. expect watches and warnings for the South Florida and the keys. Vis imagery shows a very small compact coc that is taking a lot of shear this morning, but one has formed near 21.5n and 74W

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #88299 - Thu Jul 22 2010 08:56 AM

My guess is the call will be depression at 11, and Tropical Storm when recon gets out there.

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WesnWylie
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Hugh]
      #88300 - Thu Jul 22 2010 08:57 AM Attachment (431 downloads)

Does the future Bonnie look to be moving due west in the latest frames of the Visible Satellites? I have a feeling that the upper-low to its north will keep it moving more westerly for at least the next few days.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/satrad.regional.html


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weathernet
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Hugh]
      #88301 - Thu Jul 22 2010 09:10 AM

Given the still somewhat shallow system, I would assume to defer to the mid level BAM or possibly the deep layer BAM model. If convection can be maintained with a good CDO throughout the day, it would not at all be surprising for us to see a TS with 50/60mph traversing just south of the Fl. Keys. Conditions in the short term just don't seem all that condusive for rapid development, but then again we are dealing with a small inner core system so perhaps not out of the realm of possibility of approaching minimal hurricane intensity ( just unlikely though ).

Would be something if this upper low were to pinch off and really rapidly dive S.W. ahead of this system. Things would get interesting for sure. Given the smallish size of the LLC and fragile state, I believe the proximity between the shear axis and the system itself might prevent any rapid establishment of a larger upper anticyclone to occur over the depression ( Bonnie?).

Looking at the GFS this a.m, really looks to "ramp up" 98L before moving inland. Am guessing we will have a pair of "weak siblings" - Bonnie & Colin, on our hands by tonight. Finally and somewhat off topic, anyone happen to see what the 6Z GFS is concocting late term, out in the far E. Atlantic? Of course, this is very very long range.


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doug
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: weathernet]
      #88304 - Thu Jul 22 2010 09:27 AM

What I see occurring here is the ULL has moved west south west at a much more rapid rate than the wave, now TD, has moved WNW. It seems it is still in relatively the same location it was on Tuesday. Consequently the TD is now on the east side, as opposed to the south, of the circulation around the ULL and is beneath an envelope of anticyclonic flow. The direct westerly shear is not as much of an influence and the midlevel circulation around the ULL is now more SW'ly on the TD's west side. While this is impacting the extent of development of convection there, it is also enhancing evacuation of the convection that is developing on the TD's west side. I also see ample evacuation on the northern and eastern sides due to the anticyclone aloft, in the wake of the ULL.
Obviously, I think there is potential for this to develop. I also wonder if the movement of the ULL more WSW'ly will impacrt the tract of the TD by forcing it to jog more northerly (up and around) the ULL? I really don't have a handle on those dynamics, however.

--------------------
doug


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weathernet
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88305 - Thu Jul 22 2010 09:32 AM

That's a nice link for satellite but the loop is so short, it really is hard to establish mean motion. One could make the argument that the COC is moving more or less westward. Looking at NASA's site ( http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ ) , and then clicking on the 1KM and choosing a longer animation, my guess is a general motion of 280/290.

Taking a longer look at 97L, the COC is really borderline exposed on the western edge of the convection. I think its nearly impossible to ignore the obvious circulation and higher winds are no doubt occuring in the N.E. quadrant of the system. The fact that there has been limited history with this circulation, its small and tenuous convection, and close proximity to the Upper Low would lead me to think it might be premature to think we have a T.S. already. If no real improvement to the convection were to occur but recon does confirm sustained borderline winds to the north or northeast of the center ( even if well removed ), than NHC might upgrade then - if no other reason but to play it safe.

Am guessing a Special Advisory even before 11:00am officially upgrading to a Tropical Depression, and then perhaps an upgrade if called for, by ( or before ) 2:00pm.


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crpeavley
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: doug]
      #88307 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:06 AM

It would be interesting if you could elaborate on your theory of a "northerly jog..."

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Evan Johnson
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: crpeavley]
      #88308 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:20 AM

last couple of loops looks like it is trying to tighten itself up. it seems to be better organized. as far as the movement, i see the slightest jog to the north. but as mike had said earlier, the 11am update will tell us a lot. i would not rely heavily on the spaghetti plots as of right now. sadly, this is what we deal with when we have july storms.

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MichaelA
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: weathernet]
      #88309 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:22 AM

There is also the dry air that remains near the COC and extends westward. The moisture does look like it is trying to wrap around the system, though. Not to sensationalize nor to instill panic, just to emphasize that every storm needs to be closely watched, both Katrina and Rita formed in this area in 2005. Let's hope that this storm never reaches those intensities.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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Evan Johnson
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MichaelA]
      #88310 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:46 AM

man is it me or is there a pretty clear COC developing at 77N 22W?

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #88311 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:54 AM

The COC appears to be at around 75 W and 22 N.

Going to be tracking this one long range, away from home.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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doug
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: crpeavley]
      #88312 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:56 AM

The "jog" north I mentioned is that this wave is clearly interacting with the ULL. The ULL is digging toward the West generally with a SW'lycomponent. The low level moisture behind it may be pulled NW'ly in its wake. Totally non-scientific and only an observation. As I said I clearly don't have a handle on the dynamic of that, and it may no occur. It was more of a question really.
Now what is scientific is that the exposed LLC on the west of the system may be competing with another center more to the north, and a center re-location may occur. This is an observation of some MET's who are analyzing the satellite data real time. If that occurs then the track will shift right. Lets wait and see what the 11 am package brings.

--------------------
doug


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mwillis
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: doug]
      #88313 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:59 AM

NRL has updated, 2 invests and one depression
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html


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WesnWylie
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: mwillis]
      #88314 - Thu Jul 22 2010 11:05 AM

The NHC has gone really conservative with the strength of Tropical Depression 3. They say a plane is heading to check this system out, though. As I figured they have chosen a track further to the west. Anywhere from Biloxi to Corpus Christi is at risk. This is not good for the oil spill region, as they are already pulling out of there.

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Evan Johnson
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88315 - Thu Jul 22 2010 11:12 AM

im guessing when recon comes back this will be bonnie. imo. storms lookin preety healthy. the warnings were no surprise to me.

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MichaelA
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: mwillis]
      #88316 - Thu Jul 22 2010 11:15 AM

03L is the upgraded 97L on the Navy site. They just haven't dumped the 97L references.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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JMII
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MichaelA]
      #88317 - Thu Jul 22 2010 11:53 AM

Tropical Storm warning is up for the Keys and South FL. Still looks like alot of shear and dry air ahead which might explain why the NHC keeps it at only TS storm level even into the Gulf. Really complex interaction going on with the ULL ahead of it, hard to get a read on the true center since they are multiple spins going on. Looks to be a soggy weekend for us in S FL since (as of now) all the moisture is to the north of the center and models indicate the center will stay south of us (down in the Keys).

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Evan Johnson
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: JMII]
      #88318 - Thu Jul 22 2010 12:46 PM

i am still not buying the tropical forecast points yet. i still believe it might take more of a turn to the north. i still dont see a solid west movement.

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rgd
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #88319 - Thu Jul 22 2010 12:52 PM

Basis? and this thing is not going to be anything more then what it is or maybe a small TS but i see what the NHC is saying about movement and they do so sorry but i just do not see this wanted north movement you have going.

Edited by rgd (Thu Jul 22 2010 12:53 PM)


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MichaelA
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #88320 - Thu Jul 22 2010 12:54 PM

It's a very poorly defined center, but it does appear that it is moving toward the WNW. The earlier convection that formed near the center has now been sheared off to the North and there is quite a bit of dry air being advected from the West and SW. None of that is conducive to rapid development.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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kromdog
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #88321 - Thu Jul 22 2010 12:57 PM

I agree. While most of the convection appears to be to the North and Northeast of the COC, in some of the latest loops there appears to be slightly more overall movement in a Northerly direction. We shall see!

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BayCoGator
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #88322 - Thu Jul 22 2010 12:59 PM

Quote:

i am still not buying the tropical forecast points yet. i still believe it might take more of a turn to the north. i still dont see a solid west movement.




It will be interesting to watch the track of the ULL and the influence it has on the track of TD3. Although I'm sure the forecast models are taking that into consideration, you may very well be right.


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Evan Johnson
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: BayCoGator]
      #88323 - Thu Jul 22 2010 01:19 PM

i think the 5pm advisory might shift the forecast paths to the north if it continues like it is.

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WPBSUE
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #88324 - Thu Jul 22 2010 01:25 PM

Have to agree that the models will shift northward a bit. Sure looks like this storm is starting to get its act together. 5pm will be interesting.

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Evan Johnson
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: WPBSUE]
      #88325 - Thu Jul 22 2010 01:54 PM

2pm advisory hit. there's a .4 degree shift to the north. and a .1 degree shift to the west. starting to believe that northerly shift by 5pm.

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doug
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: WPBSUE]
      #88326 - Thu Jul 22 2010 01:59 PM

Well the 2:05 advisory confirmed what I had suspected that the center is more north and east of the first official fix. There is a convection ball NW and convection east, and SE of the center. No convection on the west or SW. Convection to the south is some distance from the center.
I do not think a clear track on this will emerge until the system completes its organization.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Thu Jul 22 2010 02:01 PM)


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Evan Johnson
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: doug]
      #88327 - Thu Jul 22 2010 02:09 PM

i agree, the SW portion of this storm is very bald. but question is, just how organized will it get? its running out of room.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: doug]
      #88328 - Thu Jul 22 2010 02:09 PM

At 2PM the center of TD#3 was relocated a bit northeast of the 11AM position, which will likely change the forecast track some later today. (They don't update forcasted track positions in the intermediate advisories)

This means the center may approach the middle Keys or South Florida rather than Key West. Nearly all of the convection is on the north side, so any areas north of the system will likely see rainfall (and possibly gusty weather and a small chance for tornadoes)

Recon is in the area now, so we may have some data soon from it.


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #88329 - Thu Jul 22 2010 02:15 PM

AF Recon 306 is in area now and showing signs of TS force winds at the surface... 35-39 MPH. They just arrived in the last 30 mins and should begin Invest pattern to close of low and will know within about hr of the systems status

AF 302 is also in area but flying higher up at 25kf.. appears a mid level invest around system. As of the last dropsonde at 17:25Z, the plane's... Location: 160 miles (257 km) to the SE (128°) from Nassau, Bahamas.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Jul 22 2010 02:17 PM)


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WesnWylie
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: doug]
      #88330 - Thu Jul 22 2010 02:20 PM

I think the 18Z model run will shift to the east some, but not to the extent as some may expect. Looking at the steering layers, it appears it should start turning more westerly by this evening. I still think a landfall around the Texas/Louisiana border or somewhere in the state of Louisiana appears the most likely scenario. Also, Tropical Depression 3 is in its organization mode, so it will have wobbles to the north (or south) occasionally. I have a feeling the NHC will shift the track toward the Central Louisiana coastline at the 4:00p.m. update; but, we'll see what the models show.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #88331 - Thu Jul 22 2010 02:23 PM

Update... haha.. AF 306 is at about 500ft above the surface down there in SE Bahama's looks like they passed a center at Time:18:09:30Z Coordinates: 21.9667N 74.9833W... so that could be the coc area.

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 18:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 08

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Thursday, 18:06Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 22.1N 75.1W
Location: 151 miles (243 km) to the NNE (18°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 180 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 330° at 13 knots (From the NNW at ~ 14.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 24°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 15°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1008 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind Direction: Bearing was unavailable.
Estimated Surface Wind Speed: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)

so it seems that we may have a weak TS with winds of 40mph and a pressure of 1008mb? Need more data to confirm tho...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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WesnWylie
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #88332 - Thu Jul 22 2010 02:33 PM

The 18Z models that have been issued point toward the Central Louisiana coast as the landfall region. Just as I figured, the ridge will likely hold Tropical Depression 3 around or to the west of the Mississippi River; however, with the RECON flights collecting data, the 00Z runs will likely be more accurate.

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k___g
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88333 - Thu Jul 22 2010 02:52 PM

Looking at the latest floater loop it appears to me that this system is moving more northerly...is this just an optical illusion or is the ULL changing the system's course???

Edited by k___g (Thu Jul 22 2010 03:28 PM)


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WeatherNut
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: k___g]
      #88334 - Thu Jul 22 2010 03:03 PM

The 2pm adv. said that there was little motion. Also the ULL is moving sw at a pretty good clip. I also noticed that the orientation of the ULL's axis has tilted more left/right than up/down like it was earlier which will soon bring the flow in from the SE. I dont know if this will impact anything though. I am also noticing in the last couple of loops that there is more banding on the north side as opposed to the blown off look of earlier

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: WeatherNut]
      #88335 - Thu Jul 22 2010 03:05 PM

Recon is finding the center a little north of where the 2PM advisory stated. The storm forming like this is causing relocation around that area right now. The good news is that no solid tropical storm force winds have been found so far.

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ftlaudbob
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #88336 - Thu Jul 22 2010 03:35 PM

This storm has plenty of water left between It and South Florida.It will also cross the Gulf Stream which CAN ramp up a storm very quickly.The models should move the track more north on the next runs as the LLC is more north.Anyone in South Florida should watch this system very closely,we don't want a big surprise tomorrow morning.

--------------------

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #88337 - Thu Jul 22 2010 03:44 PM

Conditions around it would smash any attempt at rapid strengthening, I can't see how it would be anything more than a weak-mid Tropical Storm. The ULL to the west is moving out, but another TUTT to the northeast should stop it from getting too crazy, that and it's moving quickly now. Keeping watch on the system is a good idea regardless.

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JMII
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #88338 - Thu Jul 22 2010 03:56 PM

As noted by everyone TD3 is north of where it *should* be but the ULL kind of sucked/pushed it up there. Now it appears the ULL has moved far enough away to allow the western side to develop. About an hour ago I noticed an increase in storms on that side and now it appears to have some outflow on all sides. If it can warp itself up it might be a pretty strong TS by tomorrow. However right now its still too ragged, with no true center and the ULL is squishing it too much. There seems to be a two highs above it so that should keep the northern motion in check in the long run.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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weathernet
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #88340 - Thu Jul 22 2010 03:57 PM

Wow, I just can't help but notice the huge upper ridge building off our S.E. U.S. seaboard. It appears to be what might be the final culprit in a potential dismantling of the TD. The upper high appears to be driving another upper cut off low south and westward, and is already starting to impinge on the TD' s outflow on its northeast side. Am now starting to think that its not the upper low to its west that will shear it apart, but more aptly the dry air it may soon ingest from its north and east! Talk about a squeeze play.

I believe "storm" by tonight, peaking out while approaching S. Fla.( and Keys ) tomorrow late morning, and actually weakening prior to landfall by nightfall. Just one crazy pattern!


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weathernet
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #88341 - Thu Jul 22 2010 04:18 PM

Quick footnote to my last post.....
System is ingesting dry air from several quadrants, and is having a hard time even maintaining current convection. I believe we might soon see the moisture feed via the feeder band dropping south over Cuba, about to be cut off. The terrain over extreme E. Cuba is very mountainous and as the system inches WNWard, this may cut off its only remaining moisture feed. We may well witness nearly all convection nearly drop off, and soon if it can no longer muster a new bursting of connection near it center.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #88343 - Thu Jul 22 2010 04:40 PM

Those of you in the Southern Half of the Florida Peninsula should probably make sure that you have food and water for at least a Tropical Storm event and the possibility of power outages... should TD 3 ramp up.
Power outages and trees falling seem to be the main dangers in Southern Florida with landfalling Tropical Cyclones. Take the time now to prepare... just in case.


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WeatherNut
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #88344 - Thu Jul 22 2010 04:58 PM

Looking at some of the data it seems that the shear has dropped to 10kts over TD3 as the ULL to the west is moving out faster than expected. The only ingredient missing is a good blowup of convection near the center. If we see that happen, we might be dealing with a stronger system than first thought. There is a fine line between shear and ventilation

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 22 2010 05:00 PM)


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allan
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: WeatherNut]
      #88347 - Thu Jul 22 2010 05:04 PM

Quote:

Looking at some of the data it seems that the shear has dropped to 10kts over TD3 as the ULL to the west is moving out faster than expected. The only ingredient missing is a good blowup of convection near the center. If we see that happen, we might be dealing with a stronger system than first thought. There is a fine line between shear and ventilation




Exactly my thinking.. the CIMMS shear map shows wind shear about 10-15 knots over the center, 5-10 knots over the systems convection. I find no reason for this not to ramp up into a stronger storm, perhaps a Hurricane as the ULL continues to speed westward, away from TD3. Of course, time will tell, I did expect an upgrade about now, so I'm eating my crow for the afternoon

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JMII
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: allan]
      #88350 - Thu Jul 22 2010 05:29 PM

The shear might have dropped but right now TD#3 is a mess, its getting squished big time by the high to the NNE and the ULL to the W. It actually looked alot better earlier this afternoon. There is a small window of development and there appears to be some moisture building on the western side, but the eastern side has dropped off. Without a nice circular core I can't see how this thing could ramp up given the short time. At this point its 24 hours away from a Keys/S FL landfall and its only a 35 mph depression.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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MichaelA
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: JMII]
      #88351 - Thu Jul 22 2010 06:17 PM

TD #3 is still a mess in the latest Floater vis pics. I can't even determine a closed surface circulation in the last couple of frames. The surrounding environment is looking rather hostile to any further development in the short term. Long term? Very slow development.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MichaelA]
      #88352 - Thu Jul 22 2010 06:20 PM

We now have Bonnie.Updated at 6:15.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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allan
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MichaelA]
      #88355 - Thu Jul 22 2010 06:22 PM

LLC clearly well defined, wind shear around 10 to 15 knots, not hostile at all.. We have Tropical Storm Bonnie!

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DURING THE PAST HOUR INDICATE THAT SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPRESSION HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...AND THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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berrywr
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: JMII]
      #88356 - Thu Jul 22 2010 06:26 PM

it's going to be a slow go but what a difference a day makes in regard to shear...it has considerably lightened and shifted NW over FL.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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MichaelA
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: allan]
      #88357 - Thu Jul 22 2010 06:28 PM

Then that would place the center slightly North of 23º under/near the convective flare up. I was looking at the area near the 5 PM coords and seeing nothing. Color me wrong again.

Looks like the center reformed closer to the convective flare up. Statement coords are 22.9N; 75.4W.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4

Edited by MichaelA (Thu Jul 22 2010 06:33 PM)


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southbeachdude
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: berrywr]
      #88358 - Thu Jul 22 2010 06:29 PM

I am interested to see how long the motion continues at 315 NW at 14mph.....

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: southbeachdude]
      #88360 - Thu Jul 22 2010 07:14 PM

Model track data seems to be in good agreement that it will brush the south coast. Mets are forecasting rain in the Orlando area Friday into Saturday. Thank God. We need the rain and it has been hotter than H here!

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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rgd
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #88361 - Thu Jul 22 2010 07:19 PM

Yeah the only thing this is going to do for us here is make it cooler and give us some much needed rain.The area with 40mph winds was very very small right at the center.

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craigm
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: southbeachdude]
      #88362 - Thu Jul 22 2010 07:31 PM

Hello from south central MO.
Remarkable model consensus. They must have a pretty good handle on Bonnie. Nice CDO burst in the last few frames. Appears to me to be slightly north of track plot. She's moving too quick for major intensification by the time she skirts S FL.Good time to dry run your hurricane plan for the remainder of the season.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist


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Hugh
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #88363 - Thu Jul 22 2010 07:41 PM

Bonnie is currently moving well north of the model tracks (all of them).

To those who say it's decoupled, might I suggest investing some money in glasses?
Over the last three hours, deep convection has grown tremendously over the LLC. It's getting its act together, rather rapidly...

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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MichaelA
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Hugh]
      #88364 - Thu Jul 22 2010 07:55 PM

The overall motion is NW with deep convection East and NE of the center and a small area of convection has begun to form West of the center. Still pulling itself together. The surrounding flow is pretty much ESE to WNW and rather deep. The models all show the ridge persisting North of Bonnie which will keep it on a WNWerly track in the short term.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Hugh]
      #88365 - Thu Jul 22 2010 07:58 PM

Quote:

Bonnie is currently moving well north of the model tracks (all of them).

To those who say it's decoupled, might I suggest investing some money in glasses?
Over the last three hours, deep convection has grown tremendously over the LLC. It's getting its act together, rather rapidly...




Typical? Fujiwara effect.
Bonnie rotates counterclockwise around or ULL to the west. Now will Fujiwara rotate ULL to the NE of Bonnie? Time will tell.

Slightly uncommon to see 3 lows in close proximity.

All of the latest models that I have double checked are in a tight swath between Houma/ Grand Isle,LA and Waveland,MS.
Current XTRP or xtrapolated movement is pointed at the MS/ AL Border.

Edited by danielw (Thu Jul 22 2010 08:01 PM)


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Hugh
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: danielw]
      #88367 - Thu Jul 22 2010 08:06 PM

Quote:


Typical? Fujiwara effect.
Bonnie rotates counterclockwise around or ULL to the west. Now will Fujiwara rotate ULL to the NE of Bonnie? Time will tell.

Slightly uncommon to see 3 lows in close proximity.

All of the latest models that I have double checked are in a tight swath between Houma/ Grand Isle,LA and Waveland,MS.
Current XTRP or xtrapolated movement is pointed at the MS/ AL Border.




Ah, I hadn't considered Fujiwara. Good point. The ULL is forecast to move out, isn't it?
I've never seen this many lows in close proximity, but I'm sure it's happened before.

It'll be interesting to see the next model runs. Even if the current motion is due to Fujiwara, wouldn't the models have seen that?

AL/MS border would put a serious damper on my weekend trip to Gulfport!!!

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Thu Jul 22 2010 08:08 PM)


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WesnWylie
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Hugh]
      #88369 - Thu Jul 22 2010 08:16 PM

If you look at other past systems that have formed in the area where Bonnie is, it is not uncommon for them to move northwestward before turning back to the west or sometimes even southwest. A good example is Katrina. I don't remember if there was an upper-low affecting Katrina or not, but Katrina did something similar to this. I have a feeling the models will catch on to what Bonnie is doing by the 06Z model run. I do think that Bonnie is beginning to move to the west-northwest for the last few frames.

Edited by WesnWylie (Thu Jul 22 2010 08:17 PM)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88371 - Thu Jul 22 2010 09:06 PM

Ah the Fujiwara effect. I thought that ocurred only with two tropical systems, not with an ULL.

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allan
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88372 - Thu Jul 22 2010 09:06 PM Attachment (401 downloads)

Bonnie maybe trying to organize some more tonight, I'm very interested to see what it does tonight during DMAX. Satellite presentation, is a bit ragged, but not bad.. TD2 was much worse then this is lol..
If you click on the attachment, I made my first run on the system. Oh and to answer your question on if Katrina had an ULL next to it, I think it did, but it was a bit further out then this is from Bonnie; however, the ULL has really been on the move today. It crossed Miami to the Keys in just 3 hours. It'll be interesting to see what the models do if the ULL continues to stay away from Bonnie.

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LoisCane
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88373 - Thu Jul 22 2010 09:08 PM

Yeah this is sort of deja vu down here in Miami... I keep trying to remember the details also but too busy looping loops to worry on it now.

Either way there is supposedly a big high to her north yet she keeps slipping north.

Interesting theory on why ... fuji wara... not sure need to stare at the WV loop ...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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WesnWylie
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: LoisCane]
      #88374 - Thu Jul 22 2010 09:12 PM

Wow! The models have REALLY shifted east with this latest run. Either they have caught on to something, or they are very confused. I don't know about the MS/AL landfall that they are showing but it is possible. You just never know with these systems.

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rgd
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88375 - Thu Jul 22 2010 09:18 PM

Quote:

Wow! The models have REALLY shifted east with this latest run. Either they have caught on to something, or they are very confused. I don't know about the MS/AL landfall that they are showing but it is possible. You just never know with these systems.





They only shifted a little north cause of the relocation of the center but still the same type of track just moved north a little to makeup for the center.


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Hugh
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: LoisCane]
      #88376 - Thu Jul 22 2010 09:19 PM

Well... Bonnie is now just north of due east of the first forecast point from the 5pm advisory, and by a fair amount. It MIGHT have shifted a bit to the left in the last few frames, but it was actually moving almost due north right before that so that the net effect is still NNW. Unless it turns due west - and rapidly - or turns WSW - it's going to make landfall along the mainland. This may actually be a good thing, because it will weaken the system while its over land. However, I do remember the last storm to form where Bonnie is, and what happened to it after it cross the state. Thankfully, upperlevel winds aren't conducive to rapid intensification in the Gulf.

Edit to comment on latest models... I'm getting a very bad sense of deja vu.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Thu Jul 22 2010 09:23 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MichaelA]
      #88378 - Thu Jul 22 2010 09:34 PM

Tropical Storm Bonnie is located just south of Great Exuma Island in the Bahamas, and is holding with a small core just as a minimal Tropical Storm at present.

There is an interesting interaction going on with the system an upper level low to moving toward the west, along with a ridge building in from the northwest. It's a bit of a race between getting pulled up further north and being kicked further west by the ridge building. As the upper level low moves away from it, more effects from the ridge to the northeast will be felt. So in short it has some chance to move a bit more northward, and then be kicked more northwest later. The core of the system will likely be kept small, so if there are any surprises it would likely be a result of that.

The center has relocated north of earlier projections and with these changes may landfall tomorrow in the south Florida mainland, likely in the upper keys and south of Miami. Most likely, Folks in Miami will experience wind and rain of low to mid Tropical Storm force winds, and north of there will get some wind and rain, but the storm will be moving rather rapidly across the state.
Beyond that, it looks like eastern Louisiana or Mississippi may have to deal with the storm in the Gulf, but at this far out with the extremely complex interactions between the upper level low, ridge, and this system it has a very low confidence.

Overnight, because of the lack of visible satellite, following the apparent blowup in convection may not be indicative of where the center is. It could even lose it entirely overnight.

If you are in the Keys or south Florida I highly recommend to check up on the storm in the morning. However, otherwise expect a nasty, but entirely bearable day.


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rgd
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #88380 - Thu Jul 22 2010 09:48 PM

I agree with your pretty much on this.Nice tropical rain is needed here in florida and the wind is not going to be that much of a problem.

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lunkerhunter
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #88382 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:24 PM

Quite surprised there's not more precaution going on. Warm water temps, gulf stream....history. The convection has blown up pretty good past 90min and quickly seeing wrap around rotation.

(A reminder that CFHC is Hurricanes without the hype. Edited to remove comments that belong in the Lounge.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 22 2010 11:29 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #88384 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:32 PM

Quote:

Quite surprised there's not more precaution going on. Warm water temps, gulf stream....history. The convection has blown up pretty good past 90min and quickly seeing wrap around rotation. I see a Cat 1 by morning.




What the water vapor imagery shows is a good hint why it's not even close to likely. It's much more likely to weaken overnight because of the rapidly approaching ridging to the northeast of the system. Notice the dry air slamming (and sandwiching) the storm from the west, and how the banding features earlier have weakened greatly, and how the convection is becoming elongated.
.


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Doombot!
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #88385 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:35 PM

Quote:

Quite surprised there's not more precaution going on. Warm water temps, gulf stream....history. The convection has blown up pretty good past 90min and quickly seeing wrap around rotation. I see a Cat 1 by morning.




Yikes, looks like that blow up is already being sheared. The long range Miami radar is showing no rotation. I see no TS sustained winds anywhere in FL. It looks more like an open wave to me.


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lunkerhunter
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #88386 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:36 PM

I would disagree. could ride that finger of humidity WNW. yes an impressive push of dry air but it seems to have smacked into a wall and spreading outward W and E.

the first rains are hitting SE FL.


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Hugh
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Doombot!]
      #88387 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:45 PM

Quote:


Yikes, looks like that blow up is already being sheared. The long range Miami radar is showing no rotation. I see no TS sustained winds anywhere in FL. It looks more like an open wave to me.




I'm seeing the outer bands - including rotation - on GRLevel3.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #88388 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:46 PM

Tropical Storm Warnings have moved north on both sides of Florida, extended north on the east coast to Deerfield Beach, and on the west coast to Englewood.

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Hugh
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #88390 - Thu Jul 22 2010 11:04 PM

Quote:

Tropical Storm Warnings have moved north on both sides of Florida, extended north on the east coast to Deerfield Beach, and on the west coast to Englewood.




and long-range track shifted northward very slightly... landfall now projected near the mouth of the Mississippi. They admit that further northward shifts may be necessary, too.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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berrywr
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: MikeC]
      #88392 - Fri Jul 23 2010 12:30 AM

Thanks to Mike I'm going to keep my comments brief; he's right...okay if he goes down, I go down with him... What's a few mph and a touch of organization equal...Tropical Storm Bonnie.

As I stated last night at this time there is a big upper level low Bonnie must contend with for the near term. This is truly an "Upper" low; it is above 500 milibars or about 18,000 feet up give or take a few feet; however is reflected quite well at 300 millibars or about 30,000 feet. This ULL is moving WSW as of this typing and streamers from convective cells continue south to north near Bonnie.

Wind shear analysis has a 30 to 50 knot bullseye over the central and north part of FL from southeast to northwest. I have some concerns that Bonnie in the near term will be affected more if this WSW movement continues.

Bonnie as of 12:15 am ET...is north of progged forecast track points by about 1 degree latitude.

It has been said many, many times before that intensity forecasting is still more an art form than science. The model guidance does not bring this system to a hurricane though one model does peak Bonnie at 60 knots. I'm not going to dare guess what Bonnie will do until she's away from FL and where the ULL and shear are when it re-emerges in the GOM.

Bonnie will be on the move...currently 14 mph and will be in deep easterly layered winds...a little rare for around here...but that hot upper ridge over the SE USA will have a say in Bonnie's future after the ULL gets out of the way.

Certainly this is not good news for the northern Gulf coast and well ahead of the system LA will once again have problems with coastal flooding due to a long fetch of easterly winds ahead of the system and as gradience tightens between the surface ridge and Bonnie.

Hurricane Bonnie? Maybe...but for the moment...the upper air isn't ideal for Bonnie to be much else if that.

I reinterate it is important with developing tropical systems that guidance, upper air observations, surface observations will not be in agreement in the near term. Bonnie's structure simply has not gained enough vertical depth for the models to grasp and there was no sampling of the environment tonight of the track in front of Bonnie as there was last night.

We'll have a better grasp of what remains of Bonnie after traversing the state of FL; if Bonnie moves at the clip she's moving now, it will be a short trip over land. Stay tune...

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Doombot!]
      #88393 - Fri Jul 23 2010 12:35 AM

Just for clarification, the storm is about 275 miles southeast of Miami. The circulation is low-level, i.e., probably below 10KFT. At 275 miles with a 0.5 degree antenna elevation angle, the height of the radar beam is probably at least 25-30KFT above MSL. Somebody else can do the exact math, but my point is that the Miami radar would not see the low-level rotation because the radar beam is above that rotation at that distance from the radar site.
ED


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88394 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:02 AM

appeas recon is in Bonnie coc now.. and it appears that the surface center may be to the sw of convection and the center may be on the wsw side of the big island there in Bahama's... wsw of city of Congo Town.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
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cjzydeco
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: berrywr]
      #88395 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:06 AM

Quote:

Bonnie as of 12:15 am ET...is north of progged forecast track points by about 1 degree latitude.




What strikes me is that Bonnie currently seems to be more than a degree due East if not slightly ENE of the projected 8 AM position (according to the 11 PM update).

Quote:

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.4N 78.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.




Now granted, for the "center" I 'm using just to the SW of the apparent blow-up in convection seen in the water vapor and AVN loops (yes, I know the pitfalls of this). And of course, to prove how misleading these sat images can be, the latest recon has the center even lower than I was estimating (thx Storm Hunter).

Still, Bonnie is going to need to start moving due west soon, or the NHC may need to adjust the forecast even more to the north (east).

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08

Edited by cjzydeco (Fri Jul 23 2010 02:17 AM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: cjzydeco]
      #88396 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:12 AM

appears center is near
Time: 05:57:00Z
Coordinates: 23.7N 77.8833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,573 meters (~ 5,161 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press: 1009.5 mb (~ 29.81 inHg)

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
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Storm Hunter
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #88398 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:25 AM

doesn't appear to be TS Bonnie on first pass... ***only thing i can think is there may be two centers... and a more stronger center could be forming under the blob of convection to the NE of this center***

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 06:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2010
Storm Name: Bonnie (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 5:55:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°46'N 77°50'W (23.7667N 77.8333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 95 miles (153 km) to the SSW (199°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,500m (4,921ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 22kts (~ 25.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 74 nautical miles (85 statute miles) to the NW (324°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 71° at 38kts (From the ENE at ~ 43.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the NW/NNW (326°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,500m (4,921ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the northwest quadrant at 5:33:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the NNW (339°) from the flight level center

If theres only 1 center... then the stuff to the NE is s a strong mid level low that looks to be an impressive CDO with decent banding... if this dies out in next few hrs... we may know...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jul 23 2010 02:31 AM)


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #88400 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:40 AM

Quote:

...If theres only 1 center... then the stuff to the NE is s a strong mid level low that looks to be an impressive CDO with decent banding... if this dies out in next few hrs... we may know...




Stupid question/comment...Do they ever send the airplane to the wrong place?

One heck of a good imitation of a tropical storm at the center of all that convection and banding.


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #88401 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:47 AM Attachment (364 downloads)

Looking at sats... the convection is very well defined near Nassau Bahama... with recon showing one center to the SW outside of the convection... i'm looking for surface data to prove that i think Bonnie may have reformed to the NE under that convection... there appears to be two hot towers in recent sats that have stayed well centered so to speak in that area of storms and is very symmetrical for a couple of hours. Nice banding on this feature... recon just completed the SE Outbound leg... turning north and heading towards the Nassau.

**one thing i noted... to the NE of all of this... there appears to be some strong winds aloft coming towards Bonnie..** G-IV flew yesterday evening in GOM and into the Atlantic around Bonnie.. so we should be getting good data into models now until landfall in GOM

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jul 23 2010 02:47 AM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #88404 - Fri Jul 23 2010 03:03 AM Attachment (329 downloads)

Quote:

Quote:

...If theres only 1 center... then the stuff to the NE is s a strong mid level low that looks to be an impressive CDO with decent banding... if this dies out in next few hrs... we may know...




Stupid question/comment...Do they ever send the airplane to the wrong place?

One heck of a good imitation of a tropical storm at the center of all that convection and banding.





actually pre-flight briefing which happens about hr before takeoff... has a "target area" they think will be where when they arrive on scene they should find there invest/low/storm, etc... When they arrive on scene... the on board radar which is located in front of C-130 for Air Force planes and underneath on P-3's... will give them a real time look to the Met. on board... who will direct the pilot to what they think is center... the AF planes all have screens at each position on the aircraft so they all know whats going on and all agree and know what to do/jobs... the navigator usually will then pick out the butterfly invest pattern they will fly... and the Met. on board will make and ask for special procedures if something comes up... like a circle in the center... or a stuff like that... usually the met will ask when they arrive in center area.... they will give directions to pilot.. "turn left 10 degrees...etc. so they pass dead center.. and when they pass... Met./wx officer will tell dropsonde tech to release the GPS dropsonde... and they will monitor via RF the GPS dropping to the surface.. all while HDOB is running and the SMRF is running... all lasting about 10 hrs or so per flight. vortex data is reviewed and check and then add reports and then sent VIA sat Internet to servers for NHC to use.... so in reality there not sent to wrong area... but with systems like Bonnie... things can change very quickly. Its up to crew on board to find and report there infromation back to NHC. They do have Sat phns... and Sat Internet on board if they need to talk to NHC or whomever.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jul 23 2010 03:43 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #88406 - Fri Jul 23 2010 05:22 AM

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...BONNIE MOVING FASTER TOWARD SOUTHERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 78.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: danielw]
      #88407 - Fri Jul 23 2010 05:35 AM

Based on the location of the last 2 center fixes by RECON. It appears that the center of Bonnie will pass just south of the mainland. This would place Bonnie on a track over the Keys and over the Florida Straits.
In other words Bonnie would be passing over the Gulf Stream for a longer period of time than if she were to pass over the mainland. Window of possible/ probable intensification would be longer.


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berrywr
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: danielw]
      #88408 - Fri Jul 23 2010 05:41 AM

Satellite imagery early this morning shows Bonnie elongated NW to SE as wind shear continues to impact Bonnie. The system continues to move at a pretty good clip to the WNW. Wind Shear analysis continues to depict strong winds aloft over the state of FL and nearing 30 and 40 knot upper winds and despite the ULL moving westward the speed of the system is fast enough to continue to be impacted by the upper environment. Radar imagery at 0.5 degrees has the circulation on scope however the circulation is not completely wrapped around the system supporting NHC discussion at the possibility the system may become an open wave.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: berrywr]
      #88409 - Fri Jul 23 2010 06:56 AM

Mets here in Orlando are predicting low 90's, high clouds, and maybe some rain. They don't see much chance of intensification as she moves through the straights, maybe a little. Maybe some intensification as she moves into the central gulf. Let's hope this low intensification forecast holds true. Nobody wants to see a strong storn hit the gulf right now, more than ever.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #88410 - Fri Jul 23 2010 07:33 AM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 11:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2010
Storm Name: Bonnie (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 11:09:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°49'N 79°20'W (24.8167N 79.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 72 miles (115 km) to the ESE (106°) from Key Largo, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,499m (4,918ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 23kts (~ 26.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NW (307°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 70° at 34kts (From the ENE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 46 nautical miles (53 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.05 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 9:51:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the E (88°) from the flight level center


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kromdog
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #88411 - Fri Jul 23 2010 07:53 AM

Would not just keep an eye on the exact storm track. Most of the convection is to the North and North East. The Tampa-Clearwater area is expecting blustery conditions this evening with heavy thunderstorms.

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doug
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: berrywr]
      #88413 - Fri Jul 23 2010 08:30 AM

The system becoming declassified would not be a big surprise considering the shape it is in. Is it me or is that ULL conslidating?

--------------------
doug


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JMII
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: kromdog]
      #88414 - Fri Jul 23 2010 08:32 AM

Bonnie (if you can still call it that) really got squished between the high to the NE and low to the SW. The strong is elongated and moving at very fast clip. Winds in the middle Keys are 14 mph gusting to 35 mph. Considering the storm is moving at almost 20 mph itself this will be over before it even begins. All the weather is so displaced from the center there is almost no way this will be a TS by the time it reaches the west cost. Pretty much a non-event aside from a strong breeze and some passing showers. We have had afternoon thunderstorms produce worst conditions. Based on the radar it appears that the center will come ashore in Coral Gables/South Beach versus the upper Keys. Still seems to be tracking north of forecast just like yesterday.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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kromdog
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: JMII]
      #88415 - Fri Jul 23 2010 08:44 AM

Quote:

Bonnie (if you can still call it that) really got squished between the high to the NE and low to the SW. The strong is elongated and moving at very fast clip. Winds in the middle Keys are 14 mph gusting to 35 mph. Considering the storm is moving at almost 20 mph itself this will be over before it even begins. All the weather is so displaced from the center there is almost no way this will be a TS by the time it reaches the west cost. Pretty much a non-event aside from a strong breeze and some passing showers. We have had afternoon thunderstorms produce worst conditions. Based on the radar it appears that the center will come ashore in Coral Gables/South Beach versus the upper Keys. Still seems to be tracking north of forecast just like yesterday.





I agree that it appears to be tracking slighting more north. I also agree that here on the West Coast we get afternoon storms that gust well over 40kt on a regular basis.


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cjzydeco
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: JMII]
      #88416 - Fri Jul 23 2010 08:54 AM

Quote:

Based on the radar it appears that the center will come ashore in Coral Gables/South Beach versus the upper Keys. Still seems to be tracking north of forecast just like yesterday.




But is seems that you (and I, and others) think the "center" is in a different location than the NHC. Based on radar, I'm thinking more along 25.1 N 79.3 W, compared the the NHC's loc of 24.7 N 79.8 W.

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08


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MichaelA
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: cjzydeco]
      #88417 - Fri Jul 23 2010 09:09 AM

Looking at Miami radar indicates that initial landfall will be just N of Key Largo and traverse the peninsula over the Everglades. Weather over the southern half of FL will deteriorate and, with some afternoon heating in Central FL and the instability introduced by Bonnie, the thunderstorms will pop up. The environment is still not conducive to intensification and the relatively rapid motion of Bonnie will also inhibit strengthening.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: kromdog]
      #88418 - Fri Jul 23 2010 09:11 AM

Miami Storm relative velocity loop is showing what appears to be 2 or 3 vortices rotating around the center. Northernmost vortice is just east of Miami while the southwestern most vortice is just east of Key Largo. Look for the empty circular areas.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gen_nids.cgi?...om=&center=


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stormtiger
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Re: Tropical Storm Bonnie Approaches Extreme Southern Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #88421 - Fri Jul 23 2010 09:53 AM

When you look at satellite loops of Bonnie, you get a sense that you are watching a mirror image of a dying hurricane as it races past Nova Scotia as it merges with the Easterlies.

I think under the present circumstances, bonnie won't insensify much if at all. In fact if it weakened into an open wave, I wouldn't be surprised.

Here in La. they are predicting some blusterly winds and some rain, but we could use the rain and some cooler temps.

As for the oil, the fears are it could get pushed more inland, but maybe that won't happen and the choppy seas will help agitate the GOM and it will in fact break the oil down and help it dispurse.


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Ed in Va
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Re: Tropical Storm Bonnie Approaches Extreme Southern Florida [Re: stormtiger]
      #88422 - Fri Jul 23 2010 10:05 AM

You're probably right, but it's essentially over land right now. Let's wait until it gets back in the Gulf before we write her obituary.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Hugh
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Re: Tropical Storm Bonnie Approaches Extreme Southern Florida [Re: stormtiger]
      #88424 - Fri Jul 23 2010 10:09 AM

Latest (within the last hour or so) infrared images of what is left of Bonnie depict a system on life support. As some things on life support do occassionally do, however, it's made a bit of a comeback as it made landfall just north of Key Largo. The latest image on the Miami radar indicates that landfall occurred at around 10:00am ET, roughly five minutes ago. Some very impressive convection formed over the apparent LLC right as the storm crossed the barrier island just offshore of the mainland. I just refreshed the radar, which loaded the 10:02am ET images, and that one shows Bonnie about to cross over the mainland coastline. On the current heading, that would put whatever is left (if anything) into the Gulf around Everglades City in a few hours.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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JMII
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: danielw]
      #88425 - Fri Jul 23 2010 10:14 AM

Quote:

Miami Storm relative velocity loop is showing what appears to be 2 or 3 vortices rotating around the center. Northernmost vortice is just east of Miami while the southwestern most vortice is just east of Key Largo. Look for the empty circular areas.




I see it now. Looks like the edge of the true center just came ashore in Key Largo. The worst of the weather seems to be in a strong band that will push into the Homestead/Coral Gables area in the next hour or so. Another band is pushing thru Boca (where I work).

I wonder what the NHC will put the wind speeds at during their next update. 25 mph? No way its blowing 40 mph... other then maybe an offshore gust or two. And what's up with the "tropical storm winds extend out up to 85 miles"? I find that impossible to believe.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Evan Johnson
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: JMII]
      #88428 - Fri Jul 23 2010 10:23 AM

im wondering if the 11am update will shift the track north and lower it back to a TD. i really dont see a WNW movement it all seems NW. also it is very weak.

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Hugh
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #88430 - Fri Jul 23 2010 10:26 AM

Considering that the LLC is now inland, it is almost a certainty that Bonnie has weakened to a depression, and will be downgraded at the 11am advisory. I say almost, because there's a possibility that some offshore winds still remain about 35kts. Since it made landfall a bit north of the projected location, a track shift is also reasonable. What remains to be seen is, whether Bonnie exists in the Gulf at all. If the LLC degenerates, the track is pretty much irrelevant.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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WesnWylie
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: Hugh]
      #88431 - Fri Jul 23 2010 10:34 AM

I have a feeling that they will downgrade Bonnie to a depression at the 10:00 a.m.CDT update too. If in fact Bonnie is a depression or remnant low after it crosses the peninsula, the track will likely shift back toward the west due to a weaker system. Also, if the circulation reforms in another place once in the gulf, the track will change. The entire coast should continue to keep an eye on Bonnie.

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berrywr
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Re: Tropical Storm Bonnie Approaches Extreme Southern Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #88432 - Fri Jul 23 2010 10:34 AM

Bonnie continues to be impacted by shear aloft and her appearance on satellite verifies this fact as Bonnie continues to be elongated from NNW to SSE. There is a bullsye of 40 + knots along the W FL coast and Bonnie is near 20 knot isotach. The ULL is now about 300 miles due south of LA and continues to move west. Upper level flow over Bonnie remains SE to NW thus Bonnie has not been able to sustain any amount of vertical depth at this time. There will be a small window of opportunity for Bonnie to regain some strength but not much given her speed. Based on recent recon data Bonnie maybe downgraded to a depression though I would be surprised if they did now that Bonnie is near the coast and warnings at this time should be left in place for continuity.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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berrywr
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #88433 - Fri Jul 23 2010 10:42 AM

There is one buoy..FWYF1 at 25.59N 80.10W at 1400Z reporting sustain winds of vector 070 at 40 knots sustained gusting to 46 knots and a 0.08 pressure fall over the past hour. Bonnie should be making landfall at anytime if not already. She's moving at near 20 mph...very fast.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: berrywr]
      #88436 - Fri Jul 23 2010 10:59 AM

Observed at RSMAS
JUL23
10:44
Temp 83°F/28°C
Wind NE(57°) 28mph/24kts
Pressure 1012 hPa
Humidity 93%


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Owlguin
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: JMII]
      #88437 - Fri Jul 23 2010 10:59 AM

Looks like on radar the center is in right around Homestead area, just south of Miami.

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JMII
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: Owlguin]
      #88439 - Fri Jul 23 2010 11:14 AM

No change in the 11AM update - Fowey Rocks, FL (in the middle of Biscayne Bay) reports winds at 40 gusting to 45, pressure still falling ever so slightly. Guess that one report is enough to keep this "thing" at TS status. Winds in Miami are gusting into the 30 mph range but that's it.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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danielwAdministrator
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Latest Vortex [Re: JMII]
      #88440 - Fri Jul 23 2010 11:40 AM

The system is tightly wrapped and has the potential to bypass sensors other than doppler radar. Even doppler has it's faults when being used against low level circulations at a distance. Key West radar should be close to giving the best data right now.

URNT12 KNHC 231503
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032010
A. 23/14:41:20Z ( 10:41 EDT )
B. 25 deg 29 min N
080 deg 17 min W
C. 925 mb 761 m
D. 31 kt
E. 218 deg 3 nm
F. 017 deg 33 kt
G. 277 deg 20 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 21 C / 764 m
J. 24 C / 765 m (inside the center)
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 9
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0503A BONNIE OB 05
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 34 KT NE QUAD 14:42:10Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 23 2010 11:43 AM)


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BillD
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: JMII]
      #88441 - Fri Jul 23 2010 11:41 AM

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1135 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...BONNIE MAKES LANDFALL IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

SURFACE...RADAR AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AT 1100 AM
EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MADE LANDFALL
IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR CUTLER BAY WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 40
MPH...65 KM/HR.


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: BillD]
      #88446 - Fri Jul 23 2010 01:02 PM

It is still amazing to me that the models and NHC consensus still show this thing moving more west than north while the radar clearly shows it moving almost due northeast. Looks like the central circulation may run just south of Sarasota which is still completely outside of the cone. Odd situation. I am thinking Pensacola and Tallahassee need to be a bit more on alert about this than New Orleans.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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doug
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: BillD]
      #88447 - Fri Jul 23 2010 01:04 PM

Radar and satellite imagery indicate that the western edge of the LLC will be exiting into the GOM south of Marco Island.within the hour. Movement seems to be due west. Most of the associated rain will exit the peninsuala in the next three hours. It is moving quiclky.

--------------------
doug


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doug
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: doug]
      #88449 - Fri Jul 23 2010 01:28 PM

What an interesting feature this really is. I will be curious to see just how long the NHC keeps this classified. It appears that most of the energy is being absorbed into what can only be described as an inverted trough spawned by the ULL now in the mid GOM. It is almost as if I am watching the remains of a tropical system be absorbed into a frontal trough, but it is a mirror image of that. All of the energy will clearly go NW'ly into the barrier that is now between the ULL and an upper ridge over the SE CONUS. That ridge's eastern and southern extent are pushing Bonnie's center generally westward, while the energy seems to be headed Nw'd. Just my take.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: doug]
      #88450 - Fri Jul 23 2010 01:40 PM

This appears to be an bit of an increase from the earlier vortex.

URNT12 KNHC 231617
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032010
A. 23/15:47:10Z
B. 25 deg 31 min N
080 deg 30 min W
C. 925 mb 765 m
D. 36 kt
E. 051 deg 44 nm
F. 122 deg 40 kt
G. 055 deg 37 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 22 C / 762 m
J. 25 C / 767 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 9
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0503A BONNIE OB 08
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 41 KT NW QUAD 16:01:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

***************************************************
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...BONNIE...LESS ORGANIZED...MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 81.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 23 2010 01:46 PM)


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doug
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: danielw]
      #88451 - Fri Jul 23 2010 01:51 PM

These coordinates confirm that movement of the LLC is slightly north of due west. I have noted that the convection that is on the immediate north and west of the LLC have shown an increase since the western edge has touched the water. The center itself will likely cross into the GOM somewhere between Naples and Bonita, probably in two hours. There is only scatterred shower activity arranged in bands following the passage of the center. The heaviest rain area is rapidly moving out to the NW.

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MichaelA
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: danielw]
      #88452 - Fri Jul 23 2010 01:54 PM

Convection is starting to flare up on the western side near Everglades City in the last frames of the vis loop. Looks like the CoC will enter the GOM between Everglades City and Naples soon.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: MichaelA]
      #88453 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:08 PM

Convection is there but it appears well west of surface center.... which is kinda becoming broader as we go into time.... Shear is winning the battle right now... appears it not just Upper level shear... maybe some mid level winds in and around 18kft and higher... coming in from the NE over much part of the eastern side of bonnie. In the sats... theres upper level shear screaming to the NW over the Key West. Very unique setup... If Bonnie survives... it will need to get into the GOM soon and get storms flaring up again... trying to beat the shear is the short term... i don't see it happening this afternoon

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satmaster.pl?Carribbean

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satmaster.pl?Florida


**interesting the second vortex fix was done over land by the Air Force before they departed and went home** Do you still drop a GPS dropsonde over land?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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MichaelA
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #88454 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:11 PM

Quote:

C**interesting the second vortex fix was done over land by the Air Force before they departed and went home** Do you still drop a GPS dropsonde over land?




In that part of the Everglades? Why not? It is very sparsely populated, if at all, in that area.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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doug
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #88455 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:16 PM

Most if not all the moisture is NW , by quite a distance, from the center. The storm is drawing dry air into itself from the SW and that air is wrapping around, and has virtuallly killed any decent convection on the north and east sides. The "core" of the system,if that is what it is, does have convection immediately north, west and south. Everglades City had a pretty good shower recently which was contained in the SW band accompanying the center. The center itself should be exiting near the Lee/Collier (Bonita Beach) area soon. Looking out to the west however, there is little for the system to draw on to maintain itself. It will have to re-generate convection based on the GOM, or it will not survive.

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WesnWylie
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: doug]
      #88457 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:24 PM

I think Bonnie will make it into the GOM as a Tropical Depression since it will be hitting water in about 1/1.5 hours. We'll see what the 18Z models say but I don't see the system going any further east than Louisiana for its landfall. In fact, the 12Z ECWMF shows the system moving into Texas. Conditions will likely inhibit Bonnie from getting above Tropical Storm(if that-I even wonder) intensity before landfall. But from what I can tell, the center is moving nearly due west.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Thoughts on Tropical Storm Bonnie [Re: MichaelA]
      #88458 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:25 PM

Quote:

Quote:

C**interesting the second vortex fix was done over land by the Air Force before they departed and went home** Do you still drop a GPS dropsonde over land?
In that part of the Everglades? Why not? It is very sparsely populated, if at all, in that area.



Not normally... even over the Everglades. No drops over land and I believe water drops are announced over a common radio channel.. Marine Band and Aeronautical Band.


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WesnWylie
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Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #88460 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:30 PM

I guess I stand corrected, the latest models move it northwest. I have a question, however. Since Bonnie is and will stay weak, what will take it to the northwest so quickly-I mean that is a sharp turn for a system that is currently moving nearly due west?

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k___g
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Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88461 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:37 PM

I am surprised that we have just had our first wind gusts and rain related to Bonnie. Being in south Orlando I wasn't expecting anything. Mike should be seeing them also.

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gsand
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Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: k___g]
      #88462 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:48 PM

I'm in Palm Bay and we're having a pretty good little cell go through right now, moderate rain and winds around 20-25. 3rd one since around 1 pm. Melbourne radar shows some bands coming in off the water along the Space and Treasure coasts:

--------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991 Erin 1995 Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2021 Forecast- 15/6/3

Edited by gsand (Fri Jul 23 2010 02:49 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: gsand]
      #88466 - Fri Jul 23 2010 03:14 PM

Convective cells are on the NW side of the Center. Easily seen in this visible satellite photo.



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WesnWylie
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Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: danielw]
      #88467 - Fri Jul 23 2010 03:18 PM

danielw, is it just me or does the center of Bonnie already seem to be turning to the northwest?

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88469 - Fri Jul 23 2010 03:33 PM

Quote:

danielw, is it just me or does the center of Bonnie already seem to be turning to the northwest?




Haven't really looked at the direction. Based on where Bonnie made landfall and where she is now I would estimate a WNW or 290 heading.
I'm more intersested in what she does after the center moves offshore.


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MichaelA
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Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: danielw]
      #88470 - Fri Jul 23 2010 03:33 PM

Still a fairly well defined small circulation there with some convection trying to form within it. Could be interesting as it moves into the Gulf and gets some separation from land this PM.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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doug
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Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: MichaelA]
      #88472 - Fri Jul 23 2010 03:48 PM

Personally, the radar presentation begs the question os whether this thing is over. Virtually no convection is occurring on the west as the center emerges into the GOM. The dense rain area north of the center is breaking up. The dry air is strangling the moisutre(energy) from the system. It is dying.

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Hugh
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Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: doug]
      #88474 - Fri Jul 23 2010 04:07 PM

Quote:

Personally, the radar presentation begs the question os whether this thing is over. Virtually no convection is occurring on the west as the center emerges into the GOM. The dense rain area north of the center is breaking up. The dry air is strangling the moisutre(energy) from the system. It is dying.




To paraphrase a line from Star Trek VI... I can confirm the location of Bonnie. I cannot confirm the existence of Bonnie. Tampa radar now shows no evidence of a spin. The visible satellite loop shows high clouds racing off to the northwest, with perhaps some very minor rotation around the coast. Infrared/AVN imagery shows a very disorganized mess, but no evidence of even a weak circulation, at any levels really. Other satellites loops show similar things... lots of clouds, but no longer any organization.

It's possible that there is a closed low somewhere in that mess, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if the 5pm advisory declared Bonnie to be post-tropical (the new technical term for dead).

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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doug
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Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: Hugh]
      #88475 - Fri Jul 23 2010 04:13 PM

Well I am sitting in my office in South Fort Myers, (about as close to where the "LLC" is supposed to be as possible, and we have dense overcast, light rain and NO WIND...These things are classified based on ground level wind speed and we have had no wind all day...nice rain storm however.

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WesnWylie
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Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: Ed in Va]
      #88477 - Fri Jul 23 2010 04:30 PM

Has anyone been looking at the Caribbean disturbance today? Its looking better than the past few days. I think the NHC will start keeping tabs on this area in the next day or two if the convection continues.

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Hugh
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Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: Ed in Va]
      #88478 - Fri Jul 23 2010 04:34 PM

Well, the 5pm forecast is out and it still calls for restrengthening. Winds are estimated at 30kts now, making Bonnie a depression. I can wait for the discussion...

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #88479 - Fri Jul 23 2010 04:41 PM

part of 5pm... Based on models... shear just doesn't appear it will let up... very slim chance of returning to TS prior to landfall... it could happen.. but chances are low

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
BEFORE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...DEGENERATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Jasonch
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Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88480 - Fri Jul 23 2010 04:54 PM

Quote:

Has anyone been looking at the Caribbean disturbance today? Its looking better than the past few days. I think the NHC will start keeping tabs on this area in the next day or two if the convection continues.




Now that bonnie is almost history is there anything else that will be brewing in the short term.


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Hugh
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Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #88481 - Fri Jul 23 2010 04:57 PM

Quote:

part of 5pm... Based on models... shear just doesn't appear it will let up... very slim chance of returning to TS prior to landfall... it could happen.. but chances are low





Given that the satellite presentation just continues to deteriorate with what is left of Bonnie, I think it is highly likely that degeneration will occur in the next 12 hours. Even though the ULL has moved quite a ways away from Bonnie, the combination of shear and land interaction have just been too much for it to survive.

Ironically, I am seeing some thunder and light rain right now... the effects of the sheared off clouds from Bonnie.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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JMII
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Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: Hugh]
      #88483 - Fri Jul 23 2010 05:12 PM

Quote:

Well, the 5pm forecast is out and it still calls for restrengthening. Winds are estimated at 30kts now, making Bonnie a depression. I can wait for the discussion...




Personally I think its been a depression since the 2PM advisory. I can understand the guessing when the storm is over water, but they have plenty of land based data collection points and none of them supported a TS. Highest wind speed at Big Carlos Pass (S. Ft Myers) = 22 mph/ gust to 29. Marco Island 22 mph. Tampa Bay 25 / gusts to 35. West Palm Beach gust to 26. Belle Glade gust to 29 mph.

There is pretty much nothing left of Bonnie, its just moving too fast and get blasted by shear.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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berrywr
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Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #88487 - Fri Jul 23 2010 06:43 PM

NHC is being generous calling Bonnie a depression. On visible satellite Bonnie looks like a well sheared system with only a remnant low in the low levels. Shear analysis puts Bonnie right along the edge of the 30 knot isotach and there is a bullseye of 50 knots directly over New Orleans. Bonnie might survive only as a shallow system...

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Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: berrywr]
      #88489 - Fri Jul 23 2010 07:19 PM

I had to laugh at the local Met who showed the 'predictions' for the future of Bonnie. They are calling for it to regain 50mph winds before its next landfall in Louisiana!! I don't see any way as Bonnie is being stretched and torn like a piece of taffy right now.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida [Re: berrywr]
      #88490 - Fri Jul 23 2010 07:48 PM

Just a quick comment. I'm never too sad to see a system do what this one did today. Dump a bit of needed rain on the state and blow itself out as it exited to the West. Looking for maily a rain event as the system comes ashore tomorrow in the Northern Gulf of Mexico.
All in all, this was a chance for all of us to check our readiness in the event of a more potent threat later in the season. The heart of the season is only a few weeks away.


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