WesnWylie
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There is an area of disturbed weather over the Caribbean today. This area flared up yesterday, but it appears to have increased in organization this afternoon. This area may have a chance to develop in the next day or two IF the convection persists.
Edited by WesnWylie (Fri Jul 23 2010 05:25 PM)
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MichaelA
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I was just going to comment on this. Just to the South of Hispaniola, it does appear to have some spin going on. Also, the shear is relatively light. I wonder why hasn't picked up on it yet.
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Michael
PWS
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WesnWylie
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I have a feeling that the will highlight this area soon. Personally, I think it looks like there is some development already underway. It will be interesting to see what this does tonight and tomorrow.
By the way, the area I am talking about is the area south of Hispaniola-like you mentioned.
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Jasonch
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I believe this is the same area that joe Bastardi mentioned yesterday that poses a more significant threat to the gulf in about a week. He was more concerned about this one than he was with bonnie.
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mwillis
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NRL has Invest up for the area mentioned in previous posts
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...p&TYPE=ssmi
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Actually that image is for 97L - the system that became Bonnie. The coordinates are for 97L on the 22nd but the image does show the area in question below Hispaniola. If starts an Invest for the Caribbean system the number would likely be 98L (since nothing else is going on in the basin).
ED
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berrywr
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98L was given to the disturbance over the Bay of Campeche a couple of days ago. This disturbance is experiencing 20 knots of shear at the moment...24-0500Z but lighter shear ahead as it moves west. This system bears watching.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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You are correct - and others have pointed that out to me as well. The next Invest number for the Atlantic would be 99L.
Thanks,
ED
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berrywr
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Well, I got caught with my britches down two days ago...I thought Bonnie was done while an open wave but left the door open it could become a tropical depression just for the sake of covering my hind parts.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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Jasonch
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well the has highlighted the area in the caribbean and gives it a 1% chance of developement. Developement is not anticipated because of its close proximity to yet another upper level low. What is the deal with all these upper level lows, is this normal. It just seems to me that this Hurricane Season forecast was way over done. All the ingredients needed are just not there.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Quote:
well the has highlighted the area in the caribbean and gives it a 1% chance of developement. Developement is not anticipated because of its close proximity to yet another upper level low. What is the deal with all these upper level lows, is this normal. It just seems to me that this Hurricane Season forecast was way over done. All the ingredients needed are just not there.
Umm its July 24th. I'd say the forecast was way overdone if this was November 30th and we still only had 2 storms.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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WesnWylie
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The chance for this area to develop has greatly diminished as, not one, but two upper-lows are shearing it apart. Unless something changes, which will not be in the near term, this area will likely amount to nothing.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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WeatherNut
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I've not heard much on the big flare up over the BOC. Its been very persistent and seems to be moving away from the coast perhaps due to the influence of ULL in the NW GOM. It looks rather impressive right now
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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berrywr
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These ULLs are called lows...
A "TUTT" is a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. A low is a that has completely cut-off. lows are more commonly known in the Western Hemisphere as an "upper cold low". s are different than mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling. s are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones which may inhibit their strengthening. There are also suggestions that s can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere. For a more detailed discussion on s see the article by Fitzpatrick et al. (1995). Courtesy of AMOL (NOAA)."
Bonnie has been pestered by a low since birth, currently in the Western GOM. It and the upper ridge over the SE USA has been the system's steering mechanism since day one and Wind Shear analysis has made that point very clear. Frankly, it was a fluke it formed into a depression, but there was one day where the shear lightened considerably before making its presence known the following day. Bonnie's undoing was her speed. The thinking originally would be for the ULL to get out of the way; however Bonnie was moving so fast that it never got away from the ULL winds aloft. Bonnie never had an opportunity to gain any vertical depth thus was steered by the tropical easterlies that are evident this time of year.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
Edited by berrywr (Sat Jul 24 2010 01:07 PM)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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There is a well defined ULL to the north of the system. It too is a low. There is an interesting feature just to the NW of the Bay of Campeche; however it is so close to the MX coast that it may not garner the attention of the .
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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