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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Colin Forecast Lounge
      #88572 - Sun Aug 01 2010 08:42 AM

Here is the place to discuss long range models, and guesses regarding 91L.

RIght now a lot of people may feel inclined to fall back to the European model, which suggests the system moving through the northeast Caribbean and then through the Bahamas and into the Florida Straits. Which is possible, but I'm not going to buy the Euro model on this system, it's a lot further east than the others and the environment is in a situation that the European model really doesn't handle quite as well.

In short, I wouldn't rely on it being close to correct right now that far out.

It does make the system worth watching for the east coast and Florida, and especially the Northeastern Caribbean.

Why am I thinking Florida right now? A possibly key may be the presence of two upper ridges, one west of Bermuda and another over the southern plain states. If a weakness exists offshore the Carolinas, that would be what drags the wave more northerly, and if it misses the northeastern Caribbean, would be the cause. What's not happening there would likely be enough to continue to pull it out to sea. What happens after that is the weakness gets plugged, which completes the ridge and generally drags it more westward, which is why those in Florida would want to watch it. Chances for a gulf impact are low currently, but not non-existent.


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: 91L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #88579 - Sun Aug 01 2010 02:45 PM

One of our local Mets just posted the 192 hour frame of that European model on his Facebooks page as 'something we may have to watch out for later in the week'. He loves doing that with no more comment than this quote. Looks interesting, but I don't put to much faith in a model that far out! Especially before a depression has even formed (which seems to be occurring as I type!

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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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B.C.Francis
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Re: 91L Forecast Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #88581 - Sun Aug 01 2010 03:15 PM

I have to agree with you Lamar, but as I type I think we`ll have a depression possibly in the next 24 hours or sooner. We need rain not wind, chances are we may get both if the trends continue.

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WesnWylie
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Re: 91L Forecast Lounge [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #88583 - Sun Aug 01 2010 04:38 PM

Until a center develops or RECON investigates 91L the models will continue to be somewhat unreliable. What is interesting to note is that the latest 12Z ECMWF shows the system turning more westerly as it approaches the Bahamas-as in heading toward Florida. So, we'll find out soon enough where it decides to go.

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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
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Re: 91L Forecast Lounge [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88584 - Sun Aug 01 2010 05:14 PM

I have a feeling this system is going to take up a lot of my time this week.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: 91L Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #88585 - Sun Aug 01 2010 06:05 PM

Remember that the purpose of this Forum is to provide a place to discuss long range models, and guesses regarding 91L
ED


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WesnWylie
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Re: 91L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88603 - Mon Aug 02 2010 03:02 PM

The latest round of models (18z) are trending further west, and they are to the left of the NHC track. I think the models are catching on to the fact that the fairly strong weakness in the ridge that was previously advertised is not materializing at this point. TD 4 is still moving more towards the west rather than the northwest, so I think the trend (at least in the short term) will be for the models to inch westward.

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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01


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doug
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Re: 91L Forecast Lounge [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88612 - Mon Aug 02 2010 04:59 PM

There does not seem to be anything that will pull this radically northward for a couple of days. At that time the extent of the trough along the east coast should be clear. It does seem that the strong upper high in the SE has move westward over the past 24 hours, which has deepened the trough a bit. The feature I will watch is the ULL which is somewhat removed from TD4 to the NW and its impact on the situation. It is not a vigorous ULL like we had involving Bonnie, but its presence in a day or so along the east coast of Florida will no doubt impact the trough and perhaps strengthen its effect. That is likely why the models take the system NW-NNW in a few days. Also the strength of the system will determine the degree of poleward drift; the weaker the less that will occur. I think in two days we will be able to get a firm grasp on this.
The system following looks as if it is still partially imbedded in the ITCZ.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Mon Aug 02 2010 05:15 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #88633 - Tue Aug 03 2010 06:36 AM

The TUTT low northwest of Colin is probably going to keep the system out to sea, and I'm not seeing much at all (other than the usual internet hype machine) keeping it well to the west. Northeastern Caribbean is quickly becoming less likely, and the Carolinas only have a minor chance to see any direct impact. Bermuda is more likely, but even that may be a stretch.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #88634 - Tue Aug 03 2010 09:42 AM

Interesting that the BAMD, GFNI, and GFDN all bring the system into the Lower Bahamas. Using the latest model run at Google Earth.

Tropical Atlantic Model Runs for Google Earth

Only works with Google Earth.

Clark has a nice smaller version here:
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2010/clark4latest.png

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 03 2010 11:19 AM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #88635 - Tue Aug 03 2010 09:53 AM

Having trouble with that link...is there somewhere else to see them?

(Try this:
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2010/clark4latest.png ~danielw)

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 03 2010 11:21 AM)


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WeatherNut
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #88636 - Tue Aug 03 2010 11:27 AM

I still think this is on the south side of where NHC track has it. It is already south of their forecast points and the forward momentum with it going as fast as it is makes it more likely. Its not going to organize much more though till it slows down. I think it stays south of the shear, barely north of the islands

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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #88637 - Tue Aug 03 2010 12:05 PM

Looks like it will not organize further for at least a couple more days.This should make it take a more southerly track.Some of the models seem to be picking up on this.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #88639 - Tue Aug 03 2010 01:16 PM

In reference to my earlier post about the 3 models trying to forecast a track through the Bahamas.

The 3 models are basically splitting the difference between the XTRP movement and All of the other models. Strange behavior.
XTRP now skirts the Southern Coast of Hispaniola and the 3 outlier models forecast track is through the Southern Bahamas.


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MichaelA
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #88640 - Tue Aug 03 2010 01:23 PM

Is it just me, or is Colin dissipating? Not much convection going on there now.

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Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #88641 - Tue Aug 03 2010 01:44 PM

Almost looks like it is leaving the 'old' convection behind as new convection forms northwest and north of the center. Could it be a redevelopment of the COC?

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #88644 - Tue Aug 03 2010 02:22 PM

Looks like a very small LLC is at 14.3N; 50.0W at the end of the latest Floater loop. No real convection of note.

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Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #88647 - Tue Aug 03 2010 03:42 PM

The 18Z models are trending further to the southwest. This places the NHC's track to the east of the model consensus. At this rate, I wonder if the Southeast coast needs to keep a closer eye on the path of Colin since the models are beginning to show it curving back towards the west as it approaches Florida. Even if Colin weakens in the short term, the Caribbean could cause it to wind back up IF it continues toward the west.

--------------------
2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88655 - Tue Aug 03 2010 05:55 PM

I see the circulation center at the 5 PM advisory location of 15.8N, 53.8W, but I also see a circulation with more clouds trailing at 15.0N; 50.2W. I wonder if that might regenerate at some time in the near future.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #88663 - Tue Aug 03 2010 09:07 PM

The BAM models from the 00Z run now show the remnants of Colin heading up toward Florida before turning sharply toward the west and possibly southwest. I don't know if this really matters if Colin cannot regenerate in the future, though.

--------------------
2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01


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