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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

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Doombot!
Weather Guru


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Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Too soon?
      #88866 - Wed Aug 11 2010 09:49 PM

To call this season a bust as for the official forecasts? As I recall, Dr. Gray has forecast (a conservative compared to NOAA) 15/8/4. Entering mid-august we're at 3/1/0 with no real potential areas on the horizon. Is it unreasonable to doubt another 12 named systems three of which become cat 1-2 and four become cat 3+?

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Too soon? [Re: Doombot!]
      #88867 - Wed Aug 11 2010 11:31 PM

Actually CSUs forecast is for 18/10/5, i.e., they expect 15 more named storms. Here is the link:
CSU August Forecast for 2010

NOAAs updated forecast was for 14-20/8-12/4-6 (which is quite a range - makes your forecast rather easy to hit I guess).

No, its not unreasonable. The standard argument has been 'look at 1969' - which was quite a different setup, i.e., 1969 was an El Nino year for the entire year. The real question may well be "At what point into the season does is become unlikely?" - and I don't have a good answer for that one - yet.

Perhaps I missed it, but I don't recall seeing anybody say that the season was going to be a bust. Note that we close out our annual seasonal forecast exercise around the first of June each year. Its posted in the Storm Forum.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Aug 11 2010 11:46 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Too soon? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88868 - Thu Aug 12 2010 09:41 AM

It is way too early to consider this to be a limited season. Just now getting into the statistically height of the season, so the next 4 - 6 weeks could become fairly active. I don't see anything significant for the coming week, though. Of course, as we get into late September through October and possibly into November, the Caribbean and GOM could become active again.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Too soon? [Re: MichaelA]
      #88869 - Thu Aug 12 2010 11:17 AM

If you look at a couple of recently active years you find that you don't have to have a bunch of 'early' storms to make it an active year. In 2004, we were only to TS Earl at this point in the season. Yes, Charley had been a bad storm already making landfall on Aug 14, but it hadn't been a very active season to that point. Now in 2005 (which was among the most active EVER) we WERE already to Irene in this part of August. So an argument could be made that we are behind that curve. Certainly there is a LOT of season left to go and the most active times are still ahead of us....HOWEVER, it is also true that the farther we go along without getting some systems lined up in the Atlantic, the harder it will be to meet those very high predictions. I must also note that Ed was one of the few with predictions on the low side of those given by the 'experts' and he is looking pretty good so far.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Too soon? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88870 - Thu Aug 12 2010 11:26 AM

Ok - I've done a little research and here is a partial answer. Of the 16 most active seasons since 1885 (see the Met Blog for years) with 14 or more named storms, the average date for the fourth storm of the season was August 2nd. The five seasons that had the latest start date for the 4th storm were:

1969 (18 storms) 8/14
2000 (15 storms) 8/19
2001 (15 storms) 8/22
1998 (14 storms) 8/24
1953 (14 storms) 8/28

With no storms on the horizon for the next few days, the statistical (and climatological) likelihood of 16 or more named storms for this season is just about zero, however, a total of 14 or 15 named storms this year is still statistically possible.
ED


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Too soon? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88871 - Thu Aug 12 2010 12:37 PM

Very Interesting Article By Dr. Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

The web address to this article is:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/10/klotzbach-on-atlantic-hurricane-season-analysis/ .

Here is an excerpt from the article:
The average date of 2nd hurricane formation for all years that are La Nina years is August 21, and you will note that five years with very high ACE values of 170 or greater did not have their 2nd hurricane formation until August 20th or later. The 2nd storm in 1961 did not form until September, and that September went on to have four major hurricanes, a record for the month. So, from a climatological perspective, it is not time to write off the TC season yet.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Too soon? [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #88875 - Thu Aug 12 2010 06:45 PM

Well it was certainly an interesting article, but I’m having some trouble following his logic. Dr Klotzbach assumes a high ACE value this season and he forecasts a very high total of 18 named storms (which could give you a high ACE value). However, if the assumption is incorrect then the forecast is in trouble. He shows a table of all of the La Nina years since 1950 along with the date of the second hurricane for those 16 seasons. The first 4 dates in the table (and probably the 5th) are already history as far as this season goes. But ignoring that, the average storm totals for all of the years that he lists are 12/7/4. What that tells me is that on average, during a La Nina year, you are going to get 12 named storms – the August forecast, just recently issued, was 18 - which certainly implies a well above average season.

Only three of the years with the greatest number of named storms are in his table – 1995, 1998 and 2007. That tells me that La Nina years are not good years for high storm activity, since the other 13 high-activity years must have been ENSO neutral or El Nino years (a few years ago Ostro & Lyons – TWC - actually document that this is indeed the case). Unfortunately he used the two recently active areas with a high expectation for development (TD5 and Invest 93L) in his article – but neither of them made it to TS status. He also uses 1961 as an example of a season with a second hurricane in September (which is fine), but the season totals for 1961 were 11/8/7, which is a normal seasonal total. When you forecast a seasonal total of 18 named storms, tropical storms usually play a significant role in reaching that total, but the article concentrates on the date of the second named hurricane.

Dr Klotzbach states that “from a climatological perspective, it is not time to write off the TC season yet” and I certainly agree with him on that point. So far, the tropical cyclone season is certainly not a ‘bust’ – the season still has a long way to go - but a high-activity season (16 or more) will soon be very difficult to achieve.
ED


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Too soon? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88877 - Thu Aug 12 2010 10:08 PM

For clarification - I'm posing the question "Is it too early to call the forecasts that call for a very busy season a bust?"

Obviously, there is a lot of season to go and there is more activity to come than has past. I don't think anyone here thinks the season's over.

D!


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Unofficially TD5 became a Tropical Depression Thursday [Re: Doombot!]
      #88878 - Fri Aug 13 2010 12:12 AM Attachment (283 downloads)

This photo is courtesy of Stu Ostro; it is a photo of Slidell, LA radar at 4:15 am CDT August 12. He made a comment about how what isn't TD5 being more like a depression than upon the initialization of advisories. Last time I checked he works for the NWS in San Angelo, TX; he's no longer at the TWC. He's right, this is a Tropical Depression; not Sub-Tropical, not a Hybrid; the real deal. I looked at everything including Wind Shear, upper air charts and surface analysis. It is an important point to remember that there are examples where landfall doesn't necessarily spell doomsday for a system and on rare occasions actually strengthen either due to proximity to water or like LA, a lot of marsh and very warm water. For the better part of a day, the remnants of Tropical Depression 5 were a Tropical Depression.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

Edited by berrywr (Fri Aug 13 2010 12:16 AM)


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Too soon? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88879 - Fri Aug 13 2010 12:22 AM

There's a big ol TUTT or one doozy of a longwave trough parked over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean from way up where no one would be caught swimming in the skivvies to way on down yonder to Ol Mexico; big "positive tilt" trough. Wind Shear analysis has the Gulf of Mexico and all of the Atlantic Ocean from the TUTT west to the coast closed for biz-ness; but I digress.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Too soon? [Re: Doombot!]
      #88880 - Fri Aug 13 2010 01:31 AM

Ah - I have a better understanding of where you were heading with your question. If you define 'very busy' as 18 or more named storms, the season has probably already hit the point where those forecasts are not likely to verify. A forecast for 16 named storms is rapidly approaching the point where it will be difficult to attain that total if the basin remains quiet for another week to ten days. Storm totals of 14 or 15 are still within the realm of statistical possibility. Of the 16 busiest seasons (14 or more named storms) since 1885, 12 had already developed their fourth named storm by August 14th and all of them had developed their fourth storm by August 28th.
ED


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Too soon? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88881 - Fri Aug 13 2010 10:54 AM

Looking at the Atlantic basin this a.m. on NHC and seeing NO colored areas of ANY kind at this point in the season doesn't give me confidence in those high prediction numbers. There aren't even any really interesting areas either except maybe down near Nicaragua, but it appears headed into Central America. Guess the 'predictors' have missed something about this season to this point. OR maybe they just got caught up in enjoying the media hype that always surrounds predictions of doom and disaster. You would hope that scientists wouldn't become enamored of publicity, but when research funds are hard to come by, a little extra camera time for inflating your numbers to 'scary' levels can't hurt.....or am I being too cynical? I am beginning to wonder if MY predicted numbers might be a tad high.......and they were way on the low end of those predictions here.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Too soon? [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #88882 - Fri Aug 13 2010 11:45 AM

Rather dry over the tropical Atlantic for any development occurring there for several days. Also, there is not a lot of activity over the African continent. The only feature that gets my attention today is the area in the SW Caribbean, and even that looks more robust on the Pacific side.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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ChrisS
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: Lake Buena Vista, FL
Re: Too soon? [Re: MichaelA]
      #89468 - Thu Sep 09 2010 07:35 AM

Now that we are almost 1/3 into Sept and technically near the "peak of the season", what is the prognosis for 20 more named systems to meet the high end of some of the predictions for the 2010 season? I mean, anything can happen, but how realistic is it? Curious what the good folks here are thinking - I know the pros won't update anything until after the final bell (although some of them are now saying this season could go on through December). And what is the value of these predictions? All it does is make people upset. Until a storm forms and is close to a landfall anywhere (US or foreign, we are all human lives) there seems to be no value in these forecasts except an excuse to raise gas prices, insurance costs and other costs because it "might" happen.

Edited by ChrisS (Thu Sep 09 2010 07:37 AM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Too soon? [Re: ChrisS]
      #89470 - Thu Sep 09 2010 02:28 PM

I would be quite surprised if the season cranks out the maximum forecast storms. There is still plenty of time for an above average total, though. Once we get through September, the focus returns to the Western Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico for October and November. We are at 9 named storms thus far with 3 hurricanes of which 2 became major hurricanes. With more than 1/3 of the season remaining, there is still plenty of this season to get through.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Igor's path [Re: MichaelA]
      #89476 - Fri Sep 10 2010 05:01 PM

Igor is now moving west at 21 mph.If he moves too fast the High will not have time enough to move east.Igor has my attention now.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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ChrisS
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: Lake Buena Vista, FL
Re: Too soon? [Re: MichaelA]
      #89490 - Sat Sep 11 2010 09:04 PM

Thanks for the response Michael. I notice NHC now has 3 areas of interest marked. I guess if you mark every circular cloud formation in the Atlantic basis, eventually you will have named enough systems to match your predictions at the start of the season. Granted not every invest becomes a storm, but it seems a bit much now. Sorry if I sound tired but I am, and looking forward to a cool dry winter thanks to la Nina.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
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Re: Too soon? [Re: ChrisS]
      #89493 - Sun Sep 12 2010 01:36 AM

Quote:

I notice NHC now has 3 areas of interest marked. I guess if you mark every circular cloud formation in the Atlantic basis, eventually you will have named enough systems to match your predictions at the start of the season.




Actually, if anything, the NHC has been perhaps a bit conservative this year with what Invests they have upgraded to an officiated tropical cyclone. There were so far two Invests I have tracked thus far which I would not have batted an eye had they been designated a TC officially and in real-time by NHC (one of them arguably qualifying as a TS, in fact).

In addition to the two Invests I mentioned above, there is reason to believe that Hermine was a Cat 1 hurricane into and/or just after landfall, and also that Alex had attained minimal Cat 3 heading into landfall. In fact, at 947mb, the min central pressure in Alex into landfall was at a level very often associated with Category 4 hurricanes.

Now as to the three features currently highlighted by the NHC for potential development, one, Invest 93L, is in reality probably already a tropical depression (and currently listed as a 90% probability of an upgrade within 48 hours - again, a very conservative call).

Another, Invest 92L, currently highlighted for a 60% chance of becoming a TC, is probably about spot on. While not yet a tropical cyclone, it has the kind of internal and external preconditions for TC development that easily warrant a forecast of about 60% chance of development over 48 hours.

The final area is flagged for a 10% chance of further development. Again, this seems reasonable given how soon this feature is likely to become entangled with an approaching front.



Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 12 2010 12:52 PM)


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ChrisS
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: Lake Buena Vista, FL
Re: Too soon? [Re: cieldumort]
      #89496 - Sun Sep 12 2010 11:05 AM

Thanks for the info in response to my post. I appreciate the work that is done, I do however question the creation of worry and hysteria.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 12 2010 12:53 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Too soon? [Re: ChrisS]
      #89499 - Sun Sep 12 2010 12:18 PM

Actually I'm going to take your side on this one because I felt that you had asked some thought provoking (and perhaps provocative) questions. Sometimes science can get stagnant without some provocation.

The ability to attain a total of 20 named systems this year is very low in my opinion - but that is a position that I've stated since May (see the Outlook for the 2010 Season in the Storm Forum). The quality of the early season storm forecasts this year by those organizations that normally issue these types of forecasts had some flaws in them - but that is a different issue that I will likely comment on at the end of the season. Suffice to say that these organizations will all justify their individual forecasts no matter what the final numbers are. CSU will probably state that the ACE was uncommonly high and therefore they made a good forecast, and for NOAA its easy. When you forecast a range of 14-20 (which from a Meteorological perspective is not a good forecast - its like saying that the maximum temperature today in Melbourne will be somewhere between 70 and 100 degrees), if the season is just a little above normal it becomes difficult not to hit your forecast.

Right now we have 9 named systems this season with the likelyhood of having the tenth one by sometime tomorrow. But starting with 9 at this point in the season, during an average season 5 more storms could be anticipated - with one of those 5 forming in November. A November storm this season may not happen because frontal systems, although weak, are already pushing down to the northern Gulf coast, i.e., by November the waters will have already cooled off in the subtropical areas of the Gulf and Caribbean that are the focal points for development at that time of the year. But even if we consider 5 more - or even 6, that will put the total for the year at 14 or 15, not 20. With an early onset of cooler weather it just doesn't seem likely that the tropical cyclone season would extend into December in the Atlantic basin.

As to the value of a 'seasonal storm total forecast' - probably minimal. As a member of an Emergency Management Team, I believe that there is some planning value that this type of forecast can provide, but if those plans include financial considerations based on the expected level of activity that 'might' impact your area, i.e., frequency with which storm drains are cleared based on a budget allocation or the extent to which sandbags, tarps, etc., are stockpiled, then the forecast at least needs to be in the ballpark. These forecasts do have a direct relationship to your homeowners insurance costs if you live in a hurricane-prone area. Many years ago State Farm was one of the financial contributors to the CSU Seasonal Forecasts.

This was a good thread with excellent input from others. The general public normally (not always) tends to quickly forget a bad forecast because total correctness is not expected, but credibility can suffer if bad forecasts become a bad habit. Thats when folks dial in another station.
Cheers,
ED


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