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The area currently causing rain around Florida has a 10% chance to develop Fri-Sat weekend near the coast of SC.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 199 (Nicole) , Major: 241 (Ian) Florida - Any: 199 (Nicole) Major: 241 (Ian)

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Verified CFHC User

Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Hamburg, Germany
Re: The Trouble With May
      #75063 - Wed May 30 2007 12:29 PM

I'm curious how the probabilities change once the next storm of the season is active. So I'll be looking for the follow up Ed ...

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: The Trouble With May [Re: Valandil]
      #75082 - Wed May 30 2007 07:00 PM

It doesn't really change anything because you still have to start your database with the fact that your first storm was in May. If the next storm is in June or August, you only have 5 historical events to work with - and 4 if the next storm is in July. Those numbers are probably way too small to be considered a useful statistical sample. Even the 14 events in May is a mighty small sample. Of far more interest to me was that no matter how small the sample, if a storm had developed in May, later on in the season the U.S. mainland had a tropical storm or hurricane landfall (so far). However, all of the numbers are there in the main blog, so you can develop the new percentages yourself if you wish, but the 'landfall' reality would still be there from a climatological point of view.

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Weather Analyst

Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: The Trouble With May [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88988 - Sat Aug 21 2010 11:13 AM

Re: Ed's August 2010 statistics blog.
This forum is the only place where I have seen an attempt to analyze the relative lack of activity in the northern hemisphere, as something noteworthy and potentially significant. I am still not clear why that is occurring except as a factor of the unusually hot conditions in the hemisphere this year, and I am unclear about why that is happening. I guess we will have to wait it all out and see if the activity levels return toward normal before the season is over. But if not the long range forecast models for tropical activity will have to be modified to include this year's data.


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