doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
It appears the WNW phase of Danielle's motion has begun and the NW'ly will begin at about 52W. The ULL does not seem to be too strong, but with the dry air it is hard to visually assess the degree of shear. It is not impacting the storm presently from all indications.
-------------------- doug
|
Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc:
|
|
12Z models are out, with the main tracks moving several degrees left of the previous ones. Something to watch, especially for Bermuda
Hmmm...link doesn't work...go to Jonathan Vigh's model on the main page of Fl Hurr (under Danielle)
-------------------- Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
Edited by Ed in Va (Tue Aug 24 2010 02:22 PM)
|
Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
|
|
i concur, studying the last 7 hours of rainbows, it is dually noted that a jog to the west is current and a little bit of disorganization is also present. i still don't believe this is a game changer. keep something in mind, with how unpredictable the Atlantic has become, and with all the pressure systems involved, slight shifts in movement mean less than they used to in my personal opinion.
|
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 576
|
|
Quote:
i concur, studying the last 7 hours of rainbows, it is dually noted that a jog to the west is current and a little bit of disorganization is also present. i still don't believe this is a game changer. keep something in mind, with how unpredictable the Atlantic has become, and with all the pressure systems involved, slight shifts in movement mean less than they used to in my personal opinion.
The disorganization you are observing is real and it is quite evident that it is because Danielle is moving head-long into a region that was previously contiminated by Saharan Air Layering...
The reasons are complicated but SAL particulate matter is very bad for cloud seeding, and this thought to curtail cloud production ... therefore cutting into the dynamics of the system.
I mentioned this on another forum in length (can't recall if I did so here) that it would be possible that a would-be Danielle may get affected in this way. SAL, I believe (as I have been closely observing this season...) has been somewhat problematic in the middle Atlantic Basin, perhaps more so than predictively anticipated back in the spring.
It doesn't have to be a death sentence to Danielle, but the ideas of rapid intensity are put on hold indefinitely.
If the system shallows some, it may become more challenged to linking up with any weakness - something to consider as well.
Persons in the northern Islands should monitor this system.
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
I really dont think the people in the Leeward islands have anything to worry about but swells that
were/are generated by the hurricane. I agree with every ones comments above and the SAL.
Drier air wrapped into the hurricane and shear is taking it toll on her.
I'm kinda inline with Doug on a WNW to NW path.. not so as much as the has it..but
it wont move W towards 18N and 61W @ the Leewards. It may come close to 20N and 55W
and that is a key for Bermuda.
|
MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
|
|
Latest vis pic seems to show that the convection may be trying to reestablish near the CoC. Maybe the dry air entrainment is subsiding. With a weaker storm in the short term, a more westerly track may continue. I don't see a northwesterly turn until Danielle reaches somewhere near 20N; 60W.
-------------------- Michael
PWS
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
RECON is flying the area west of Danielle. They are currently over the Eastern Caribbean at roughly 10,000 feet altitude.
Observation Time: Tuesday, 16:17Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 17.1N 65.0W (View map)
Location: 114 miles (184 km) to the SE (142°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 3,030 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 110° at 33 knots (From the ESE at ~ 37.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 9°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -9°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
700 mb Surface Altitude: 3,196 geopotential meters
Optional Data...
Estimated Surface Wind: From 70° at 15 knots (From the ENE at ~ 17.2 mph)
Remarks Section...
Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 18 knots (~ 20.7mph)
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
Yes I agree. It looks like it took a gulp of dry air earlier which collapsed the convection on the NW side, but that is beginning to reappear now. It is chugging along at a rapid clip.
-------------------- doug
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Recon wont go out to Danielle..she is too far east. They almost never go east of 50W
|
MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
|
|
The latest Vis floater shows a feature redeveloping over the center, so intensification should resume. Forward motion appears to be steady at about 300º.
-------------------- Michael
PWS
|
MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
|
|
But they will get some essential samples of the atmosphere ahead of Danielle that can be added to subsequent model runs. We'll see if that data changes upcoming runs.
-------------------- Michael
PWS
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
They are just doing a test flight...
|
WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
|
|
The 2pm models have shifted pretty substantially to the left with Bermuda about in the middle. It still seems like there will be a more westward track
-------------------- Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
love those samples of the atmosphere.... good idea
-------------------- http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
|
|
Latest Vis and IR RGB Sat Floater shows two major convective areas - one just NNE of the center, and one S of the center. There is still substantial dry air on the W side.
-------------------- Michael
PWS
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
She has adjusted and is now moving more NW @ 320dg almost..
|
berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
|
|
Quote:
But they will get some essential samples of the atmosphere ahead of Danielle that can be added to subsequent model runs. We'll see if that data changes upcoming runs.
They really do need to sample the envelope Danielle is in as it is more and more appears likely Bermuda is under the gun and the Canadian GEM is hinting at a closer approach to the NE USA. All the model data in the universe can't replace real data and integrate them into the latest model runs.
-------------------- Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
Mission synopsis: August 24, 2010
NOAA has no flights planned in the next 24 h. They will be watching developments in the Gulf of Mexico to determine if a flight on Thursday, August 26, is warranted. Currently they are planning to forward deploy to Barbados on Friday, August 27.
NASA completed a DC8 survey along the weak frontal zone on Tuesday, August 24. Take off time was 14 UTC and the flight duration was 8 h. The DC8 performed underflights of the TRMM PR and Aqua. No flights are planned through Friday. The Global Hawk conducted a low to mid altitude dropsonde test today. The first drop was successful. However, the second one failed. The test will be repeated on Thursday. A possible science flight into Tropical Storm Frank in the Eastern Pacific is planned for Saturday without dropsondes except for possible high-altitude test at the end if the flight on Thursday is successful.
PREDICT has no flight planned for Wednesday, August 25. A possible flight for August 26 is to be determined.
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
So Ed in Va...am wondering what the local weather mets are saying tonight with the big shift in the models taking a weakened Danielle somewhere near your neck of the woods.
Well...am wondering if local mets up and down the coast are suddenly talking Danielle or are they all waiting to see what will be tomorrow.
Big shift in models... maybe just a funky run.
Time will tell
-------------------- http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc:
|
|
Lois,
Shift caught me napping...will check and let you know.
-------------------- Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
|