MikeC
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Odds are it's a bad run, but time will tell. I talked a bit about it in the forecast lounge.
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MikeC
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Danielle is back to hurricane strength at 11PM, and the model spread at long range is increasing. It'll need another day or two of trends to be sure. Odds still keep it offshore the US.
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RevUp
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Looks like a weak low-level circulation on VIS loop this morning about 250nm ESE of Brownsville, TX. Starting to show up on long range radar display. NOAA and have it all covered quite well.
-------------------- "Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
Edited by RevUp (Wed Aug 25 2010 02:32 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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As noted on the 09Z Discussion for Tropical Storm Earl: "BASED ON THESE DATA...CONTINUITY WILL BE
MAINTAINED AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOSE TO THE TRMM FIX. IF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER DOES REFORM FARTHER SOUTH...THE FORECAST TRACK
WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTH...OR TO THE LEFT OF THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE."
At 26/12Z, adjusted the center position south to 14.8N 35.4W which yields a west rather than a west northwest motion. I'd anticipate that the 15Z package will show a minor track adjustment to the left. Centerpoint positions are difficult to locate on formative systems at night but its likely that the adjusted 12Z position was used in the model run currently underway. Because some of the models use continuity as one of their parameters, its going to take an additional run or two for an adjusted track to emerge. With a persistent trough expected to maintain itself off the east coast, the overall recurve pattern still seems like the best solution at this time.
ED
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MikeC
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The hurricane center mentioned a point about Earl (and Danielle) at the 11AM discussion, basically saying if Danielle recurves faster and or more abruptly than forecast, it could give a window for the ridge to reform near earl, keeping it a bit further west than the current track, which would possibly bring the Eastern Caribbean back in play.
Odds are against it, but if Earl's forecasted path were to change, that would be one of the reasons why, and something to watch for.
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LoisCane
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Biggest question mark is where is the real center of Earl. The said that not me...and it's a good discussion and a good question that begs answering. Without the exact center being right the models are almost useless.
Imagine when recon goes in and gets it exact we will know more and or... if his track shows us where he is at.
Easy to say recurve but it's a question on timing more than anything else...not just intensity of Danielle.
I'd like some answer before I believe he's swimming away from land.
-------------------- http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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MichaelA
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Looking at the latest floater vis loop, it looks like the center of Earl is moving between 270 and 280º along about 16ºN. That center is poorly defined though.
-------------------- Michael
PWS
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Ed in Va
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Huge track change to the left on 12Z , with little sis Fiona to his SE. Only one run and the next could show him bypassing by 500 miles, but something to watch. We're a long ways from home on the fate on Earl.
-------------------- Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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MikeC
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97L is now being tracked, this is the wave east of Earl, and has a chance to form tomorrow or over the weekend. Odds favor this recurving as well, but has even less confidence than Earl.
(The map below may not be current, please check the dates~danielw)
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 26 2010 07:14 PM)
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scottsvb
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Not even worth talking about until after 72-96hrs for the U.S. or recurving out to sea after that. Main thing
will be "Will this affect the NE Leeward islands". Tropical Systems are a near term thing (within 72hrs).
Also it will be important on the 60 longitude by day 4. and have it making it to 19-20N and 60W
by then. Lets first see if it goes north of 20-60 or middle or even 17-18N and affect the islands. Right
now its a good bet she will be somewhere between 18-20N and 60W by then.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Earl has really taken a beating from the Saharan Air Layer - and it still is. At 26/16Z the PREDICT Project Team had Earl at 15.3N 37.2W moving to the west and at 17Z the position was 15.3N 37.5W with a central pressure of 1010MB, i..e., at the moment, from their perspective, Earl is on life support. Until you have a halfway stable centerpoint, early upgrades can create track variability problems - and we are seeing some of that. In the past few hours the overall structure is showing signs of improvement.
ED
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doug
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I see Earl at 15.3/38 now. it is very isolated, and surrounded in dry air. If the SAL prevents the convective processes from occurring there is virtually no other energy source for Earl to grab and strengthen. It has to manufacture its own or it will starve. Visible convection is away from the center. The circulation however is well established and that should allow better organization, which in turn will allow it to strengthen.
-------------------- doug
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WeatherNut
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A data buoy near where Earl just reported a pressure of 1003mb
-------------------- Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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berrywr
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Earl is expected to be north and west of 20/60 in 120 hours. Initially models have recurvature tracing Danielle's track however not as abrupt. Earl is likely to make a much closer approach to the United States and may find itself stalled due to a number of features in play in one week. We all know model resolution at 168 hours is iffy at best. It will be 3 more days before we can really have a grasp how close Earl is going to approach; it will however be much, much closer this time around than Danielle. There is one fly in the ointment and that is 97L and maybe that impressive wave that's lighting up Africa as we speak.
Thanks to Ed and the link, I took a look at the SAL satellite imagery. A day ago the boys at couldn't figure out why Danielle weakened to a tropical storm despite low shear values; it crossed through a tongue of the SAL.
The SAL has been slowly modifying while enveloped around Earl and his satellite presentation is improving and winds were raised slightly at 5pm.
Realistically, we're not going to know anything concrete for a few days and where all the major players will be.
-------------------- Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
Edited by berrywr (Thu Aug 26 2010 10:07 PM)
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Clark
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Quote:
Earl has really taken a beating from the Saharan Air Layer - and it still is. At 26/16Z the PREDICT Project Team had Earl at 15.3N 37.2W moving to the west and at 17Z the position was 15.3N 37.5W with a central pressure of 1010MB, i..e., at the moment, from their perspective, Earl is on life support. Until you have a halfway stable centerpoint, early upgrades can create track variability problems - and we are seeing some of that. In the past few hours the overall structure is showing signs of improvement.
ED
Just a quick heads-up, Ed: The intensities listed for each of the various "PGI" invest areas on the PREDICT page are just placeholder values. They don't have any meaning whatsoever. The only information gets from the PREDICT group for those invest areas is position. Since their system is set up to include an intensity designation, they just use 15 kt/1010 mb as a 'dummy' placeholder value. (Note the same that you see for Earl holds true for Danielle/31L, 97L/36L, and 37L in the Gulf.)
-------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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LoisCane
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Thanks Clark. A lot of variables on timing and exact location of where the center is and will be with Fiona and even Earl to start being sure where he will be or how far west he will be before he recurves... at the moment the west side of the cone is getting closer and closer to 70w.
Earl is a different storm from Danielle. I find it interesting that they are expecting Earl to be so strong at this point out on Day four... a possible category 4?? or strong 3... and everyone's talking about Fiona but she doesn't have the name yet.
This is one of the most amazing wave trains in a long time... and at some point the high won't predict the coast as things change, they are fluid.
As for how good 97 looks, it's early still... needs to cross the dry zone but she is lower
With multiple storms you have multiple variables and sometimes they interact...
Thanks for your help, Lois
-------------------- http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Ed Dunham
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Thanks Clark, I knew about the 15 knots (which is why I didn't mention it), but not the pressure - meteorology is a constant process of learning.
As noted, the structure of Earl is getting a little better but the dry air has really put a crimp in the intensification process. I think that the key factor for the next few days centers on whether the ridge rebuilds behind Danielle before Earl can follow the weakness. I've been watching the variability between each official forecast of the latitude where Earl crosses 60W - varies from 20N to 22.5N so far. With a slow start in Earl's organization it could be close as to whether the center can get above 20N when it hits 60W if the current center location is correct.
ED
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StrmTrckrMiami
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Wow, it has gotten quite active in the end of August, which is to be expected since it is towards the end of the season and August and September are two of the most active hurricanes.
My question is, Invest 97L is the wave off of Africa, and the one in front is Earl right? I just want to make sure I am looking at this right, because plots for Invest 97L show it going up and just barely brushing Florida, then again, when I click on it, it doesn't show it being even close to that right now, so I guess I am a little confused.
--------------------
Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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LoisCane
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http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...0000&loop=0
Earl is looking a bit better tonight...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ft.html
what amazes me is that this set up looks almost exactly like a few of the models looked about a week ago
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/overshooting_tops/
3 storms step stairing their way across the Atlantic
-------------------- http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Ed Dunham
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The answer to your question is 'yes'. Whatever you are looking at must be related to the previous version of Invest 97L back around the 20th of July that has not been updated yet.
ED
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