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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #89352 - Thu Sep 02 2010 07:46 AM

Quote:

Quote:



So it looks like they are going to keep the 931mb. This was the SE NW leg right?




appears so... plane is coming SW to NE now.. just got to eyewall on SW side.




dropsonde on the first pass had 931mb (27.49 inHg) Sea Level (Surface)Air Temp. 26.8°C (80.2°F) Dew Point 25.9°C (78.6°F)180° (from the S) 18 knots (21 mph) so they may have done a 1 mb reduction with 20 mph surface speed?

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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 02 2010 07:48 AM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #89353 - Thu Sep 02 2010 08:00 AM

dropsonde data from NE eyewall... amazing data
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 12

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archiv...&mission=12

Level:::: Wind Direction :::: Wind Speed
943mb (Surface) 70° (from the ENE) 118 knots (136 mph)
941mb 70° (from the ENE) 118 knots (136 mph)
935mb 70° (from the ENE) 136 knots (157 mph)
929mb 75° (from the ENE) 134 knots (154 mph)
922mb 75° (from the ENE) 147 knots (169 mph)
917mb 80° (from the E) 140 knots (161 mph)
910mb 80° (from the E) 146 knots (168 mph)
904mb 85° (from the E) 138 knots (159 mph)
890mb 90° (from the E) 134 knots (154 mph)
877mb 95° (from the E) 141 knots (162 mph)
867mb 95° (from the E) 138 knots (159 mph)
859mb 100° (from the E) 147 knots (169 mph)
850mb 100° (from the E) 141 knots (162 mph) Geo. Height::: 913m (2,995 ft)
816mb 115° (from the ESE) 153 knots (176 mph)
780mb 130° (from the SE) 135 knots (155 mph)
696mb 145° (from the SE) 135 knots (155 mph)


basically just over 500 ft above surface... 155-160MPH WINDS!

not sure if i did my math right.. its late... haha...
Release Location: 28.97N 74.28W
Release Time: 7:10:29Z

Splash Location: 29.04N 74.44W
Splash Time: 7:15:00Z

would that mean the dropsonde traveled over 10 miles from release to splash?

Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 02 2010 08:10 AM)


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Random Chaos
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #89354 - Thu Sep 02 2010 10:30 AM

5am NHC:

Officially a 125kt storm.

Since then as a hole has developed outside the eye on IR. It appears an ERC is underway. Waiting on vortex recon to confirm, but it is slow coming in.

SFMW indicates hurricane force winds extend out nearly 70 miles in the NE quadrant.


Storm Hunter: 10.8 miles, actually. Wolfram Alpha is great

NE eyewall drop just now traveled 11 miles.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: Random Chaos]
      #89355 - Thu Sep 02 2010 10:54 AM

Earl's now beginning to show up on Radar from WIlmington.

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Ed in Va
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: MikeC]
      #89356 - Thu Sep 02 2010 01:07 PM

If radar is any indication, looks like that front has stalled, which is not a good sign for the OBX.
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true&location=default

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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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doug
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: Ed in Va]
      #89357 - Thu Sep 02 2010 02:16 PM

My guess is, looking at the WV, the point for Earl to turn NE is about the Delmarva. The trough is not making much push on its south, but is continuing to progress on the north. However the motion on Earl now is certainly more consistent with NNW. The ridge seems to be digging in behind Earl's wake from the NE which should push Earl more northward until the point where he feels the trough. The whole visual picture confirms the best case scenario under the circumstances, for the OBX, that Earl will remain offshore. But a turn to the NE that far north does not bode well for the NE coastliine which is where I think the real danger for a land fall exists.

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sailor
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: doug]
      #89361 - Thu Sep 02 2010 03:26 PM

Hurricane Warning just went up at 11 AM here just west of the Cape Cod Canal. Agree a late turn to the North would be a real problem here. We may be dealing with a Edna(1954) track just East of us.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/hurricane/hurricaneEdna.shtml
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Edna_1954_map.png

Bob

Survived Carol, Edna, Gloria and Bob (boat didn't !)


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LoisCane
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: Ed in Va]
      #89362 - Thu Sep 02 2010 05:03 PM

That front is moving very slowly. It will move but I don't think it's moving as fast as the models had figured. I had heard somewhere ....and sorry don't remember which email .... that the models were not handling the size and intensity of Earl. I am not sure what that means but any deviation extrapolated over time is serious.

Also, dynamics within the structure of the eyewall and inner bands has changed the size of the Storm and the size (not strength) is expanding, almost from my perspective in anticipation of when it will go extratropical and merge with the front... also a higher lat signature.

On the left side of the storm there is a strong band of strong hurricane force winds far from the center and every mile it stays east of OBX will make a big difference in dollar amount and time to recover from any effects.

Can look on any loop and see that front is moving very slowly.

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mwillis
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: LoisCane]
      #89363 - Thu Sep 02 2010 05:23 PM

Wow hes a big storm, wonder why the convection (white clouds) is so concentrated to the south east side of the center?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

If you select animation and 6 frames then click on the hurricane it will loop a close up, on link above you can she he is going mostly north with a slight shift west on the last few frames

NHC has on their 2pm discussion that earl is moving north, however if you look at sat. pictures above, you can see that it has moved nnw, too on the last few frames. Why no mention of this?

Edited by mwillis (Thu Sep 02 2010 06:03 PM)


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k___g
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: mwillis]
      #89364 - Thu Sep 02 2010 05:38 PM

Appears that the eye is filling in and a mostly north track has begun. Good news for the outer banks but it will be close. They will get a good blow.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: k___g]
      #89365 - Thu Sep 02 2010 06:08 PM Attachment (187 downloads)

wonder what Earl looked like at sunrise this morning, From 60kft? Check out the cam from NASA's Global Hawk... AKA UAV

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/479615main_20100902_EARL-GH_full.jpg


Also the DC-8 just flew under the Global Hawk tracking NW

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 02 2010 06:11 PM)


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mwillis
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #89366 - Thu Sep 02 2010 06:22 PM

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

Earl is still moving north with a west shift, he just past 75n, which the track projection has him riding up the 75n long line. whether this is a temp shift west only to come back east later is unknown.
This is my opinion from what i see, any thoughts?

Edited by mwillis (Thu Sep 02 2010 06:23 PM)


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hogrunr
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: mwillis]
      #89367 - Thu Sep 02 2010 06:25 PM

At the 11AM update, recon found Earl to be at 75.1W and the 2PM update he was 75.2W. The NHC is stating the motion is 355 degrees, just very very slightly west of due North. I believe they have it spot on.

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mwillis
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: hogrunr]
      #89368 - Thu Sep 02 2010 06:29 PM

Quote:

At the 11AM update, recon found Earl to be at 75.1W and the 2PM update he was 75.2W. The NHC is stating the motion is 355 degrees, just very very slightly west of due North. I believe they have it spot on.




oh ok, cause accoring to nasa/msfc, they have earl at 31.30 deg n and 75.52 deg west as of the 17:45 utc image

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

Thats weird as soon as i posted this i went back to the site and the location of 75.52 deg w changed to 74.83 deg w in less than 2 minutes, lol

Edited by mwillis (Thu Sep 02 2010 06:32 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: mwillis]
      #89369 - Thu Sep 02 2010 06:51 PM

The Eye of Earl is covered up again, and the core isn't quite visible on long range radar, which makes it more difficult to tell, but I sincerely hope it begins a more due north/nne motion soon or it will make a direct landfall on the outer banks.
.. Although it appears to be heading more northerly now.


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Beaumont, TX
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: MikeC]
      #89370 - Thu Sep 02 2010 07:31 PM

Seeing what you are seeing. Hope he turns to the northeast soon.

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mwillis
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: MikeC]
      #89371 - Thu Sep 02 2010 07:32 PM

Quote:

The Eye of Earl is covered up again, and the core isn't quite visible on long range radar, which makes it more difficult to tell, but I sincerely hope it begins a more due north/nne motion soon or it will make a direct landfall on the outer banks.
.. Although it appears to be heading more northerly now.





I noticed that 2 images one from hurricane floater and 1 from nasa has slightly different center positions, yet the time index on both images are the same 18:45 utc.. confusing to me

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html
with this image just click on the storm itself for close up


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: mwillis]
      #89372 - Thu Sep 02 2010 07:36 PM

The center is starting to be visible on radar now:

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?85

Longer term Radar recording, hopefully it'll make the trends easier to spot.


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k___g
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: MikeC]
      #89373 - Thu Sep 02 2010 07:40 PM

It has begun that N-NE trend and has been for awhile. The outer banks should still get a stiff wind.

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k___g
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For NC/VA, Warnings Later Today [Re: k___g]
      #89374 - Thu Sep 02 2010 08:48 PM

Kudos to the NHC!!!

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