MikeC
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Invest 95L, in the Eastern Caribbean is being tracked, and this has a larger than usual chance of impacting somewhere along the Gulf coast. Early model runs take it toward the west, but some of the more dynamic models such as the , Euro, , and take it more northward.
Until the system develops it's pretty much in lounge territory, the odds slightly favor the turn north, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty. Time will tell, but the early indicators are leaning toward a potentially anxious situation next week.
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MikeC
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95L has a lot of model uncertainty in the future, and will probably be a difficult system to track. The trend from today is west then northeast into Florida,
What likely will make it difficult to track is the idea that it may sit in the Northwestern Caribbean waiting for something to nudge it either further westward into the Yucatan, or Northeast into Florida. Both are possible, with west more likely if the system moves faster.
If the storm stays over water there is plenty of moisture and the positive to give it a real shot to become this year's sixth major hurricane.
Moving northeasterly depends on interaction with a possible cold front at that time.
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danielw
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Just checking the latest model run. 00Z output is still trending with Mike's post above.
Either the models take 95L into Nicaragua, or they follow a nice curve toward the Yucatan Channel/ Western Cuba at the 5 day/ 120 hour time frame mark.
This could place the system in the NW Caribbean by Saturday or Sunday. Those living or vacationing in Southern Florida, Western Cuba and the Yucatan area should keep a real close eye on what the system does over the next few days and which direction it is drifting.
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Owlguin
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Upgraded to red and 60% now. Definately something to watch. It appears that the models are having a difficult time determining the strength of the trough that is expected to turn it north. Right now though, it still looks like to me that the west coast of Florida or the panhandle are possibilities. If it stays over water, we could have a much bigger problem.
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MikeC
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Last nights (0z) had it going into South Florida and then rakin gthe coast all the way to New York City. Others this morning are more into Pensacola.
HRWF keeps it over water and near Western Cuba, with a lean toward Florida.
Euro slams it into Honduras/Nicaragua then back over water, clips western Cuba and into Southwest Florida. (Hits florida overnight Sep 30 into oct 1).
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weathernet
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Interesting to see that has up'd 95L to 60% ( with surface obs to support forecast ), yet morning satellite would seem to indicate that no significant consolidation has occurred overnight, with this fairly large and broad low to mid level circulation. Given that the wave itself is moving along, and proximity to South America is at least temporarily preventing ideal surface convergence, a less developed system would typically continue to briskly move along with the lower level flow ( BAMS ) and be less apt to gain latitude in the very near term. These factors may be indicative of this morning's 12Z model runs seemingly more convergent towards the west. Even if a broad circulation does in fact exist, limited surface obs indicating west winds might indicate that a fairly well identified circulation still remains just above the surface. Last nights Euro though still attempting to eventually lift a broad system northward into the Southeast Gulf, has backed off the prior run's more intense modeling. Should development be delayed, this could play out like many late season monsoon troughs that often develop over Central America ( borne from either Pacific or Atlantic origin ) and only slowly lift poleward - all the while only slowly developing given the obvious land interaction. Such systems are capable of tremendous flooding over Central America, but by the time they lift northward into the Gulf the same steering conditions finally lifting the system northward, is also impairing increasing S.W. shear. Whether or not a well developed 95L does eventually lift out of the W. Caribbean, increased land interaction would not only hasten localized flooding conditions over Central America, but perhaps also develop into a significant rain event for parts of Western Cuba and Florida.
(Please keep long range assessments in the Forecast Lounge.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Sep 22 2010 02:59 PM)
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MichaelA
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Still way too early to say what scenario will come into play. I'm just keeping a wary eye on the situation until there is a definite center fix on a defined system and the model runs become more consistent.
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Michael
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hogrunr
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I agree, the 00Z ECMFW, for instance, has several areas of low pressure that have potential for development in the vicinity of 95L, one is further north and one is further west. So until one of these actually develops, the model is simply making a best guess as to where the potential system will begin it's development. The beginning point is crucial to model accuracy.
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weathernet
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Last night's Euro seems to have a logical solution to 95L. Perhaps rather than a system already well developed in the W. Caribbean, then turning NNE ahead of a significant "fall like" short wave, I believe 95L may well remain an open wave or possibly develop into a Tropical Depression, all the while continuing further westward over Central America. Though a discernible LLC may continue to exist for days over land, such land interaction will hinder any significant development. Though this entire "blob" could feel some northward tug by mid/upper steering associated with a fairly sharp short wave or cutoff low, I do not believe that an already well developed storm will be pulled northward from the W. Caribbean, but perhaps rather a large broad low pressure area - more or less as the 0Z Euro might indicate. Granted, such an evolution could lead to eventual development in the Southeast Gulf; in fact I think probably will. With the westerlies pretty far the north, I would think that any significant short wave that might play a short term role in helping to lift 95L into the southern Gulf, will be eventually replaced with at least weak ridging, and thus possibly steering a significant threat northwest ( or at least NNW ) towards points between the Lousiana/Texas border and perhaps Pensacola.
Next plausible scenario is a system which remains low latitude and eventually migrates into the BOC, again posing threat to N. Mexico or perhaps Brownsville.
Perhaps because of the fact that this is a low latitude broad system , has not yet consolidated at the surface, and given that we are perhaps at least a few weeks away from the lower level steering beginning to slacken, there would seem to be a limited period of time for significant development to occur ( as well as any associated NW pull given a deeper system ). What I just do NOT see happening, is what earlier runs of the were indicating with perhaps a worse case scenario which would be a large storm to develop prior to landfall, and if only "clipping" Central America remaining under diffluent upper air all the while. Now, should a storm move towards the N.W. or North, and then as the same progressive trough which aided in lifting the storm into the S.E. Gulf just as quickly depart and more or less leave a sprawling and deepening hurricane in a COL......, well then we'd really have some areas of W. Cuba or perhaps the Florida Keys receiving lashing winds for a protracted period of time AND copious rain for days over a large area. Then, everyone from Brownsville to Key West would be waiting to see if an eventual building ridge drives the storm westward or some eventual short wave finally enhancing the flow to steer the storm north or N.E.'ward.
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OrlandoDan
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So....Just about anything that could happen, might happen.
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weathernet
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Funny as it sounds...., I'd say that "anything could happen" is a pretty fair appraisal of 95L. Differing models seem to be fluctuating with regards to their own respective forecasts. As of this a.m., most recent model is suddenly more "bullish" that ever and brings a powerful hurricane near or over South Florida, while the HWRF which has consistently re-curved this system out of the Caribbean and seemingly towards Florida or the southeast Gulf, now keeps 95L far to the south and into the BOC. The global and Euro have been "generally" consistent with their own overall solution, though their intensity forecasts have been up and down.
As of this writing, we do not have an organized deep systems, so models really cannot be relied upon for too much accuracy and to an extent are basically attempting to forecast a "what if" scenario.
With edit to my own post........case in point! In error I realized that it was last night's 0Z run that very aggressively develops 95L, and just a quickly the 6Z has backed off a lot and track appears more ambiguous.
Edited by weathernet (Thu Sep 23 2010 12:40 PM)
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Thunderbird12
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There seems be better agreement now on taking 95L into Central America, though if it develops quickly it may try to gain more latitude. Both the and Euro have been taking 95L into Central America, but then developing another system close on its heels that takes a more northerly track through the Caribbean and potentially into the Gulf. Given the major pattern change forecast over the eastern U.S. and potentially one or more tropical systems trying to develop in the Caribbean, the long range forecast is particularly uncertain right now.
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MikeC
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The Euro for next Friday has it over south/central Florida:
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Ed in Va
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Pretty wierd track...will we get another track update at 5, or will this be the one until 11?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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MikeC
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Quote:
Pretty wierd track...will we get another track update at 5, or will this be the one until 11?
They are doing a full update at 5, so yes another track. Odds are they won't change much though.
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Thunderbird12
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The 12Z Euro seems to move Matthew into Central America and lose track of it, then develops another system over the Caribbean which moves northward. The 18Z seems to keep some version of Matthew alive, first over the BOC and then back over the western Caribbean, and develops another system further east over the Caribbean, which eventually slingshots to the north around Matthew, which basically moves slowly and erratically (with a general trend to the NE) to the end of the forecast run. Both models have indicated a very large circulation developing in the 7-10 day timeframe, which is tropical (warm core) in nature but with the potential for some baroclinic interaction.
Both of these model solutions are pretty anomalous and in remains to be seen how things develop down the road.
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Edski
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What I'm seeing is 3 of 14 models have it as over water at 120 hrs. If it is over water at that point it's a crap shoot, and I'll be stocked up and ready to bolt up I-75... 
Well if it's over the Bay of Campeche I worry a bit less.
We really have to look for an excess northerly component to the overal storm motion as it has a relatively rapid recurve, or just a more rapid onset of a less severe recurve. Either way, more northerly motion for the next 30 hours increases the time this storm avoids land, and the chances it misses land totally before getting caught up by the next trough that digs in...where this thing could be in 120 hours, and the steering currents it'll possibly not have, makes me a little nervous living near Tampa.
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MichaelA
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The question remains whether that second center is Matthew or a new storm. The models really don't have a long term grip on this at all.
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Michael
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danielw
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The second system could be one of the reasons that some of the models are showing a hairpin 180 degree turn. System 1 follows the track to the west, and system 2 arrives, develops, insert word of choice, at the eastern end of the hairpin turn... poof. Number two is alive. Just my thoughts at the moment.
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MichaelA
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Is this the potential second system that some of the models are trying to show?
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Michael
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