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Recon finding #Sam a vigorous Cat 4 and may be knocking on Cat 5 w/ a tight inner core. Hopefully staying away from land.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 12 (Nicholas) , Major: 28 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1082 (Michael) Major: 1082 (Michael)
13.9N 50.2W
Wind: 145MPH
Pres: 943mb
Wnw at 8 mph
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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Matthew
      #89649 - Thu Sep 23 2010 11:13 AM

UPDATE: System becomes TD15 at 23/18Z and TS Matthew at 21Z. Track forecast pretty much as anticipated.

Invest 95L developed much better organizational structure overnight and with light windshear and a large area of 30C SSTs, eventual development seems likely. At 23/00Z, NHC placed the system at 12.8N 71.6W with 30 knot winds and a pressure of 1007MB. At 23/12Z the system was pegged at 13.5N 74.8W by NHC and at 23/14Z there seems to be some consolidation taking place near 14.1N 75.7W. As the system reformed further north away from the South American coast, its chances for development have increased with a Tropical Depression likely either later this evening or on Friday.

Movement over the weekend should be to the west northwest at a rather slow rate. With high pressure moving off the mid-Atlantic coast, steering currents will become quite weak and future motion is highly uncertain. This developing system could be around for quite awhile because no matter where it ends up going its not going to do it quickly.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 23 2010 07:08 PM)

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Caribbean Sea [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89658 - Thu Sep 23 2010 12:55 PM

Looks like Invest 95L is on its way to TD status a little sooner since recon has closed off a center. Current movement is to the west (280 degrees) at 14 knots but I'd anticipate that in 24 hours it will be moving west northwest at a slower rate. Its worth mentioning that the SHIP model brings the tropical cyclone up to hurricane strength on Saturday and if the system does slow down - it could happen.

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