Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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UPDATE: System upgraded to Tropical Depression 16 at 28/15Z.
Invest 96L remains poorly defined. A low-level cyclonic swirl was noted east southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, at 28/04Z with convection building but scattered mostly to the east. By 12Z Wednesday morning strong southwesterly windshear should be well established ahead of a front/trough from the northern Yucatan across the Florida peninsula and extending northeastward along the entire east coast. Development of a baroclinic low or perhaps a subtropical depression seems likely and the shear should keep the system lopsided to the east. Primarily a mostly beneficial rain event with blustery winds for the southern half of the Florida peninsula on Wednesday with the low centered east of east central Florida late Wednesday afternoon/evening. The system should push north northeastward and forward speed should increase late Tuesday into Wednesday.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Sep 28 2010 11:03 AM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Invest 96L is slowly becoming better organized this morning. System is located south of the Isle of Pines, Cuba, near 20N 83W at 28/12Z, moving north to north northeast (020 degrees) at 9 knots with sustained winds well east of the center at 30 knots and pressure down to about 1000MB. Formation of a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely today.
The system will be crossing a narrow and rather flat portion of western Cuba very early Wednesday morning and should be located about 35 miles offshore east central Florida by Thursday morning. Models indicate a 50 knot system at that time, however, that may be a bit on the high side. The Keys and southern and east central portions of the Florida peninsula can expect heavy rain and windy conditions on Wednesday, Wednesday evening and Thursday morning with conditions improving on Thursday as the storm merges with a frontal zone just offshore the east coast and heads toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday as an system.
Since the system is likely to be more of a hybrid in nature, and because of strong southwesterly windshear along the coast, the strongest winds should remain east of the center. Although the bulk of the system will remain to the east of the peninsula, strong easterly winds over-running the weak frontal zone could create zones of heavy rain over portions of the southern half of the peninsula.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Sep 28 2010 11:04 AM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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System has become very disorganized (again) and a precise center is unknown because the system has become so weak. Perhaps near 22.4N 81.6W at 29/01Z - on land and slowly crossing west central Cuba. The system may have disintegrated to a wave that is open to the south or it may be integrating into the trough to its west. Note that both the trough and the system are weak. With no winds or convection of any consequence near the center its really a stretch to consider this entity as a tropical depression, however I guess that some regeneration may still be possible whenever what is left of the center exits Cuba into the Florida Straits in the early morning hours. Right now, the likelyhood of tropical storm or even subtropical storm formation seems quite slim and the system may simply maintain as a weak low until it merges with the trough. Even with that solution, heavy rain still seems realistic for portions of the southern half of the Florida peninsula on Wednesday.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Organization of TD16 has slowly improved overnight. Center located on visible satellite at 22.8N 81.3W at 29/14Z moving almost due north at 10 knots. Convection still confined mostly east through south but the convection has moved much closer to the center. No reports of winds near or above TS strength in quite some time. System should begin to gain forward speed with a small window for additional development over the Florida Straits today. The depression looks a little more like a lopsided tropical or subtropical cyclone this morning.
ED
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