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Arlene expected to be short-lived as rapid weakening is forecast over the weekend
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 204 (Nicole) , Major: 247 (Ian) Florida - Any: 204 (Nicole) Major: 247 (Ian)
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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

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Weather Master

Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Looking into the rest of the season, it's not over yet.
      #89823 - Wed Oct 06 2010 02:26 PM

Now, for all you people that think Hurricane Season is over, think again..

We are heading towards our 15th named system today! My forecast from May was 15-18 storms, 9-10 Hurricanes, 5 majors.

With those warm Caribbean waters, and cold core transitions that may take place in the open Atlantic, I’m looking for 2 more Hurricanes. Possibly one last Major Hurricane which will be in the Caribbean if it happens, where all the heats at. Overall I believe we have 4 more storms to go until it’s all over. This is including out of season activity in December, if we get any. I still feel the Southeastern USA (particularly Florida) is still at HIGH RISK for a landfalling Tropical Cyclone (climatologically), whether it be Major Hurricane, Hurricane or a Tropical Storm or Depression. Hurricane Season is not over yet. Look at the last hurrahs of the Caribbean in most seasons. Mitch (1998), Wilma (2005), Keith (2000), Michelle (2001), Ida (2009), Paloma (2008), ect.
Another interesting fact is from 2000-2009, the Western Caribbean was without a named storm in October 5 years (2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, and 2007.

I think it’s reasonable to say, with those warm temps of the Caribbean Sea that we have one more major Hurricane to go!

Now what would be the intensity IF a strong storm does find a weakness and moves north into the GOM?
Look at Wilma, she actually strengthened before landfall in South FL. Though if a storm were to head north of Tampa, the cool waters would weaken it some, not totally. Ida weakened mainly because of wind shear, not really the cool waters in the Northern Gulf. It became extratropical as it merged with a Hybrid low coming from the BOC. If shear wasn’t an issue, Ida would have become a Major Hurricane and then make landfall in the Panhandle as a Category 2. Also, if a strong storm in the Caribbean moves quickly, weakening would be slow to occur because the storm would not have enough time to sit under those cool temps. So the season still has a little ways to go, and just like Ida surprised many people in 2009, I feel we will have another surprising event soon in the Western Caribbean.There's alot of heat that needs to get out.

Allan Reed - 18,9,5

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Storm Tracker

Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Looking into the rest of the season, it's not over yet. [Re: allan]
      #89866 - Tue Oct 12 2010 12:42 PM

For the sake of academic discussion, this season will certainly be reviewed historically as having been well above average. Whether if viewed based upon major Hurricanes or simply number of named storms, 2010 certainly will have billed as a busy year. I too believe that this season will "eek" out one ( perhaps two ) additional named storms, however barring a significant shift in pattern for several weeks, would not anticipate further threat to the U.S. this season. Though oceanic heat content may still exist in the W. Caribbean, I do not believe that the long wave pattern will be conducive for any sprawling anticyclone to park itself north of Panama and thus do not think it likely we will see any additional major hurricanes this year.

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