Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Tropical cyclone north of the northeast coast of Honduras - nearly stationary - at 11/18Z. Post title will be updated pending determinations, however, system has probably been a TD since early this morning and latest recon seems to confirm tropical cyclone status. Some of the models eventually take the storm off to the northeast while others eventually take the system off to the southwest, but with no steering currents in place, a drift to the northwest seems likely. This is the place for you to post your thoughts on the eventual track and intensity of what is likely to soon become either TD18 or TS Paula.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Oct 11 2010 03:43 PM)
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MichaelA
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The situation seems very like Matthew and Nicole. At this time, either scenario could play out with Paula washing out over Mexico like Matthew or heading to the NE like Nicole did. I'll give it a 50/50 between the two outcomes at the moment.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Oct 11 2010 03:43 PM)
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MichaelA
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Looking at the latest floater loop (unenhanced IR), it looks like Paula is a hurricane. Nice presentation with a very good curved band of convection wrapping around the center.
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Michael
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Like some more information on the timing, model variables.... very impressive blow up of convection, intensification but in the end...where will it go? Not sure there are any answers just yet.
Recon gets the award for the day, they been out there all day.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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weathernet
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Well I for one, feel that whatever impact caused by Paula is in the "near term" rather than long term. Meaning, regardless whether Paula were to stall just south of Cuba, just east of Yucatan, or even 150 miles west of Key West....if significantly dryer air ushers in behind the anticipated front this weekend, than this ( along with shear ) will likely mean Paula's demise.
The risk is however, should Paula continue to intensify and perhaps approach Major Hurricane status, such conditions could threaten Yucatan, Western Cuba, and yes....South Florida prior to such infiltration of cooler dryer air.
Too early yet to say what impact upper level winds will have on Paula in 3-4 days, however 0Z brings Paula to the Florida Straights as does . Will be watching closely over the next few runs to see if starts to carry Paula more northward into the S.E. Gulf, rather than start a meandering eastward motion south of Cuba. I am starting to consider more likely that this deepening system will continue NNW/Northward with a more "poleward" advance and potentially pass west of W. Cuba, and then move N.E. with the increasing southwesterly flow aloft. Not to sure if upper air will compromise Paula's strength at such a time or not though.
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weathernet
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This morning's satellite presentation would certainly indicate that little ( if any ) strengthening has occurred over the last few hours. Though holding its own, it appears to me that there is some type of southeasterly ( or SSE ) shear at hand. Given the diminutive size of Paula and the typically quicker fluctuation a small tropical cyclone undergoes given larger scale impact on such a system, I would even anticipate some weakening as early as late tonight or into tomorrow morning. I would not be surprised if recon reports slightly higher winds at some point during the day given short term heating of the day and its rather small core. Beyond that however, relative dry air inflow from the system's southwest and west and north would seem to mitigate much ( if any ) strengthening today, followed by perhaps slow weakening given the less protected small core. In fact, there seems to be a complete void of any "feed" via the Pacific and its own circulation hardly pulling in moisture from the lower latitudes of the W. Caribbean.
Should any weakening occur during the day, it would not surprise me if the low to mid level easterlies were to carry the system more westward and bury itself into the Yucatan - end of story. If Paula were to deepen slightly or at minimum hold her own, than I would assume that given its current forward motion and speed would give me reason to think that enough of a pull may exist for Paula to clip the N.E. corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, then 'round just north of 22N, and rather than stall - move ENE perhaps scraping the N. Cuba coastline or perhaps threading the needle through the Florida Straights as a ( still tropical but relative insignificant ) minimal tropical storm with no consequential impact to South Florida, the Keys, or Bahamas. Perhaps a very slight flooding risk to some localized interior mountainous regions of East Central Cuba.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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You are correct in that there are still not any good answers yet. It has certainly intensified more that some of us had anticipated, and the ultimate solution may well be long-term rather than short term. There seems to be a tendency to 'exit stage right' rather rapidly with this hurricane, but that may not happen. The , which has done rather well this year, has been keeping this system around in the western Caribbean for an extended period, and the 12/18Z run is no exception - its worth taking a look at it. Generally it takes Paula across western Cuba and shoves it (significantly weakened) south into the western Caribbean Sea, regenerates it back where it started off the northeast coast of Honduras. Then its back across western Cuba again and, with a change in the upper air environment - well, take a look - it will surprise you. Its a long way out and I'm not buying into that solution (unless its the same solution next week) 
ED
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MichaelA
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Simply looking at the WV loops this evening, I'm thinking a track through the Florida Straights or along the North coast of Cuba is not out of the question. It definitely looks like Paula is moving into the southwesterly shear now. The trough over the GOM is only bottoming out at about 27ºN, so it may not be deep enough to kick Paula northeastward in the near term, but looking at the HDW-high wind analysis, I still lean to the NE through the Straights or along the north coast of Cuba scenario.
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Michael
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WesnWylie
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I don't know why the has their track for Paula so far south. It looks to me like the most likely scenario would be for it to move into the Florida Straights, if not the southern edge of Florida. I could be wrong though, even the admits that there is a high degree of uncertainty. Still plenty of time to see what Paula decides to do. 
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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Owlguin
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I would agree, but the has been very good in it's forcast tracks this year. So we'll have to wait and see. A few hours may tell the difference.
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doug
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I don't think the storm will get to the peninsula, but it is presently well west and now north of the position according to the 06Z model compilation chart. In fact it is on the AEMN 06Z line which does project a crossing of the peninsula. However satellite data suggests that the trough has pushed further south and down the penunsula and the moisture feed across the peninsula is flattening to a more west to east flow rather than the wsw to ene flow of even earlier today. The storm will follow that flow.
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doug
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