doug
Weather Analyst
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It seems the vortex has stayed off shore as it has moved NW'ly. The models don't have this fixed yet. Increased odds to develop? Then what?
Edited by MikeC (Thu Oct 21 2010 10:52 AM)
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MichaelA
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I'm thinking probabilities of development will increase tonight and tomorrow if a TD doesn't form before then. There is a dry air mass moving across the GOM and Mexico with SWesterly wind, so I'd think a North and then NE track is more feasible if a tropical system does form.
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Michael
PWS
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LoisCane
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good observation
truth is many models had Paula hanging down in the Carib for days and she did not take that slow train thru the tropics....seeing as that was just a short while ago it stands to reason that 99 will not do that either, hard to say but there is something there... that would be potential
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Looks better organized this a.m. Seems to be rotating around a point near 17.2 N and 82.5 W with a slow NNW motion. Sat. presentation looks good enough for a TD.
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doug
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MichaelA
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It's looking a bit ragged today and seems to be mostly stationary near 17.2N; 82.5W. It may be another 24 hours before anything more definite forms, if it does at all.
Edit: Make that 83.5W - it's hard to find a definite CoC.
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Michael
PWS
Edited by MichaelA (Tue Oct 19 2010 02:54 PM)
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Edski
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I noticed yesterday that the 3 BAM models were scattered a lot, today 2 of them agree with taking the disturbance over Central America and into the pacific, the deep laymer model takes it shooting across the Atlantic...
sfwmd invest 99 plots
The has it at 70% now
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weathernet
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Well, it would appear to indicate that 99L has enough depth that the shallow/mid level steering is not primarily steering current motion. Those models currently indicate a more S.W. motion, yet it has managed to drift north instead. In fact near term ( or perhaps longer term also ), motion may very well prove to be an effect of its own further deepening and developing. Certainly appears that 99L is getting its act together; low and mid level convergence appears to continue to increase. Perhaps a slight bit of SW shear towards its western quadrant. Right now, it would seem hard to argue against the BAMD for its future motion. Quicker deepening will have Richard likely crossing Cuba and "touring" the N. Atlantic with time. On the other hand, slower strengthening might permit itself to dawdle around long enough, so that ridging building in from the west Gulf ( and/or a skinny ridge re-asserting itself over Cuba, Hispaniola, etc. ), would certainly seem to cause any storm south of C. Cuba a few days out to be pushed back to the west ( or southwest ).
October systems can really have "squirlly motion". Right now, I could easier see motion taking a storm towards the N.E. or S.W., I just can't seem to rationalize how this system would have adequate time to deepen, remain over water, then hang around long enough to eventually be a threat to Florida. Richard ( if it forms ) would need to be still hanging around beyond 132 hours, AND be in a precise position, to end up being in such a position to then move across W. Caribbean and then N.E.'ward across Florida. Thus right now the largest threat would seem to be the risk for torrential flooding for Jamaica, E. Cuba and Haiti.
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weathernet
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By satellite appearance, it is my guess is that recon will find a slight drop in pressure ( 1007mb perhaps? ) and we'll have classifying our next T.D. by daybreak. Would not be surprised to have further upgraded to Richard by late in the day, all the while moving N.E. around 5-10mph
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danielw
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While the might be an outlier. The HWRF is close on it's heels. Two outliers is not impossible.
They are forecasting a CAT 3/ 4 in the Southern GOM for Sunday night.
GFDL at 935mb and 135 knots, and HWRF at 933mb and 106 knots.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...&hour=126hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.c...&hour=126hr
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 20 2010 08:15 AM)
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MichaelA
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Interesting two model runs, and in agreement with each other. All of the models seem to indicate a meandering system in the Caribbean in the short term, though.
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Michael
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Owlguin
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Models seem to be shifting to first head west, and then eventually turn to the northeast toward Florida; so from a personal perspective, I am hoping that it doesn't develop.
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LoisCane
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more interesting that the navy site has named it 19 and all night it has been explosive on funktop...
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc10/ATL/19L.NINETEEN/ssmi/track_vis/thumb/Latest.html
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Oct 21 2010 12:24 AM)
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danielw
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What a difference a day makes.
Latest model runs have taken a northerly turn and now nearly all of the models forecast a track toward the Western GOM or The Eastern GOM including the Bahamas.
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MichaelA
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A couple of those models make me a bit nervous, but only enough to be aware and vigilant for the next few days. It is still much too early to put a lot of trust into the long range time frames.
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Michael
PWS
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danielw
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Last paragraph, and more specifically the last sentence, of the Discussion is an early morning eye-opener.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH...AND IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE ...THE UK MODELS AND
CONTINUITY. I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS
BECAUSE THE ...THE HWRF AND THE TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD
THE NORTH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED
NORTHWARD LATER ON.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/210842.shtml
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MikeC
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HRWF (link)and (link) this morning are a little alarming with the suggestion of a hurricane crossing Florida on the 26th west to east closely following the I-4 corridor.
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MichaelA
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The is putting it right on Tampa Bay early Tuesday morning (late Monday night) with 100 mph winds while the HWRF places it at Punta Gorda at the same time with 80 mph winds. Of course that will change from run to run. If that track begins to be supported by the other models and becomes more consistent, then we begin to worry and start our preparations. Right now, it's just enough of an "if" to get my attention and put me into a "wait and see" mode.
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Michael
PWS
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MichaelA
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Well, the 11 AM discussion indicates that the is really hedging their bets on the future track guidance. I'm waiting to see how things are panning out on Saturday/Sunday for the time being. I'm going through my mental list some and definitely keeping a wary eye out on Richard.
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Michael
PWS
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MikeC
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Highest chances are probably closer to the panhandle right now (and weaker due to shear), but it's more in a flux than usual.
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Owlguin
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Big differences still exist between the models. Maybe it depends on how well the system develops? HWRF and continue to develope the storm and bring it north and east. Others seem to not develop it so much and dissipate it over Central America/Mexico.
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