LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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the "center" seems to be moving towards cuba and a fast date with that frontal boundary
course it has multiple centers i suppose at different levels so there is weather everywhere
either way.... thought the cone would be shifted at five to allign better with model support
a lot of rain, really a lot of rain
could have been much worse
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The 05/03Z update did adjust the track a little to the right - and straight through the passage without landfall. The 05/00Z is now coming in and it too takes Tomas straight through the passage between Cuba and Haiti. Tomas has indeed developed a better structure this evening and if the center stays over water Tomas could get up to hurricane intensity again.
ADDED 05/0440Z: Perhaps feeling the influence of the rapidly approaching front, Tomas has moved almost due north again over the past couple of hours. This increases the likelyhood that Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, is going to experience the brunt of the winds in the early Friday morning hours.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Nov 05 2010 12:48 AM)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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Full latitude trough is beginning to encroachi on Tomas outer west circulation. The upper level environment over Tomas is as good as its going to get with an upper ridge axis centered near the SA coast to its south and decreasing shear tendencies to its north. For the past 48 hours the NOGAP has been consistent with Tomas becoming decoupled and other models are now joining it with this scenario, however it doesn't appear its low level remnant will in time move back to the southwest and dissipate in the open AO.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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Quote:
The 05/03Z update did adjust the track a little to the right - and straight through the passage without landfall. The 05/00Z is now coming in and it too takes Tomas straight through the passage between Cuba and Haiti. Tomas has indeed developed a better structure this evening and if the center stays over water Tomas could get up to hurricane intensity again.
ADDED 05/0440Z: Perhaps feeling the influence of the rapidly approaching front, Tomas has moved almost due north again over the past couple of hours. This increases the likelyhood that Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, is going to experience the brunt of the winds in the early Friday morning hours.
ED
Relative to movement, the strongest side of a tropical cyclone is its east and south side. A more consolidated Tomas will most definitely lessen the impacts to Haiti and the DR but the wind is not the deadliest aspect of this system; it is the rain.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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"Relative to movement, the strongest side of a tropical cyclone is its east and south side."
Thats a little bit like preaching to the pastor - and not correctly stated. Relative to movement, the strongest sector of a hurricane is normally the right forward quadrant in the northern hemisphere. When the original post was made, the movement of Tomas suggested that landfall was possible over extreme eastern Cuba - where Guantanamo Bay is located. The post made no mention of rain - just the location that might experience the highest winds.
The core of hurricane force winds associated with Tomas only has a radius of 15 miles - quite small - so the only land areas that could possibly experience hurricane force winds are extreme eastern Cuba and Grand Turk island.
ED
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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Tomas regains hurricane strength for the third time in its life; wow!
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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