danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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11:30PM EDT Update 30 June 2011
The low level circulation of has dissipated over the Sierra Madre mountains. Heavy rains are likely near the mountains for a day or two but all warnings and advisories have been discontinued.
Elsewhere in the basin a tropical wave is moving through the Caribbean Sea but nothing is expected to develop for awhile.
ED
6:30AM EDT Update 30 June 2011
As noted below, accelerated again during the night and made landfall near Cabo Rojo which is about halfway between Tampico and Poza Rica on the east coast of Mexico at roughly 5AM CDT. Strongest winds were estimated by at 60-65mph in a strong band well to the north of the center. I'd anticipate that the Hurricane Warnings along the coast will soon be changed to Tropical Storm Warnings as the center moves inland and weakens. Heavy rains, mudslides and flooding are likely over most of eastern Mexico as the storm decouples over the mountains.
ED
3:30AM EDT Update 30 June 2011
Arlene has quickly picked up forward speed late tonight, and has resumed some intensification. The latest estimate on the has as a 55kt high-end Tropical Storm, and judging by the satellite appearance, there could still be some slight further increase in windspeed from that (maybe up to 60 knots roughly).
As of 2:45AM, was located very near, or by now possibly just now coming onshore, of eastern Mexico, centered roughly east of a midpoint between Tampico and Tuxpan, heading basically due west at a healthy 9MPH, or so.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of Eastern Mexico from Barra De Nautla northward to La Cruz, and Tropical Storm force winds extend outward 140 miles from the center. Strong and gusty squalls extend even out past that, with even Brownsville, Tx. already have been picking up some rainbands with winds sustained in the 20s, gusting into the 30s - potentially much stronger just offshore within the more vigorous squalls.
Most critically, is hoisting up an extensive fetch of very, very deep tropical moisture. Despite the persistence of dry air over Mexico and deep south Texas, this huge fetch of tropical moisture will beat away at, and overtake, much of that initially dry atmosphere. will likely produce rainfall accumulations of up to 5" over numerous locations in eastern and northeastern Mexico, and locally far greater totals possibly exceeding 12" in spots - with life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides increasingly possible in these regions.
After landfall, is expected to turn more to the west-southwest, or even southwest. There is some question as to whether or not a forecast weakness in the ridge over Texas late this week will draw in a bit more of what is left of back to the north, giving regions initially impacted (east-northeast Mexico to be sure & possibly deep south Texas) a second round of very heavy rains. Current thinking is that at least some of 's moisture feed will linger through the weekend.
-Ciel
11 PM EDT Update 29 June 2011
For the moment, intensification has stopped and remains a 50kt Tropical Storm. Forward motion has decreased again - now about 4kts to the west (and that may be a little generous). The core is still ill-defined and dry air has entrained into the cyclone from the north. Because of the slower forward speed, landfall now not likely until later Thursday afternoon. Warnings remain unchanged. Wind gust to 46mph at Tampico at 9PM CDT.
ED
6 PM EDT Update 29 June 2011
Hurricane Warnings are now up for Mexico as hurricane hunters have found 60mph winds within , and also forward motion has slowed.
Those in Mexico need to prepare for a hurricane at this time.
3 PM EDT Update 29 June 2011
Hurricane Watches are now up for Mexico from Barra de Naulta northward to La Cruz, mainly because of the small but real possibility that the system could make it up to hurricane strength just before landfall. The position is a bit further south, and the time remains rather short for development, so it is still doubtful it will reach that strength. However, it is enough for hurricane watches (not warnings).
Those in the area should prepare for a minimal hurricane regardless.
7 AM EDT Update 29 June 2011
Arlene continues to slowly organize in the Bay of Campeche, the official forecast takes it to a 60MPH storm making landfall in Northeastern Mexico early morning on Thursday.
Since the system is very broad, chances are minimal it makes it beyond that.
It will be continued to be monitored during the week.
Alvarado, Mexico Radar
Altamira Mexico Radar
Veracruz, MX TV
Flhurricane recorded Mexican Radar Loop
Weather at Tampico, Mexico
Weather at Poza Rica, Mexico
Weather at Veracruz, Mexico
Original Update
Tropical Storm has formed in the Bay of Campeche, Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. formed early this evening from a broad low level circulation.
At 8 PM EDT this evening was centered near 21.2N/ 93.7W or about 280 miles ESE of Tampico,Mexico.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph and some strengthening is forecast during the next few days.
Movement is toward the WNW near 7 mph, and the estimated central pressure is 1003mb or 29.62 inches.
Increased convection and lower pressure (1003MB) have prompted the to upgrade 95L to Tropical Storm . Most of the convection is located to the east of the center. The convective core near the center is small and surrounded by a much larger envelope of general cyclonic circulation.
Movement should be to the west northwest on Wednesday and more westerly on Thursday with landfall anticipated Thursday afternoon near Tampico, Mexico. There is a chance that the system might dip a little more to the southwest just prior to landfall - projected by at 50kts.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA ALGODONES.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jun 30 2011 11:32 PM)
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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forming tonight was a bit of a surprise, with that foothold it will need to be watched closely by those in Mexico. The numbers improved quite a bit late evening, and with Warnings needed to be issued, it looks like they went with upgrading it.
The Mexican Radar loop will start to be helpful as approaches.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Arlene's wind speed continues to increase.
RECON is flying at about 1,000 feet and recently found a wind speed (From the E at ~ 56.3 mph).
Data courtesy USAF Reserve Hurricane Hunters and tropicalatlantic.com
URNT12 KNHC 291258
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012011
A. 29/12:30:00Z
B. 21 deg 19 min N
095 deg 22 min W
C. NA
D. 35 kt
E. 041 deg 90 nm
F. 101 deg 46 kt
G. 043 deg 138 nm
H. EXTRAP 1000 mb
I. 22 C / 350 m
J. 24 C / 450 m
K. 23 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 12 nm
P. AF308 0201A OB 06
MAX FL WIND 46 KT NE QUAD 11:42:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
L/V DIAMETER OF CENTER 24NM
Edited by danielw (Wed Jun 29 2011 10:42 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon has for the second day found the highest winds well away from the Center of Circulation. Maximum winds are in the NE Quadrant around 120 miles NE of the center.
The current center location places about 175 miles due East of Arrecife Blanquilla and that places the strongest winds about 280 miles East of Tampico, or about 250 miles East of the closest Mexican Beach.
Edited by danielw (Wed Jun 29 2011 09:24 AM)
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Hurricane Watches are now up for Mexico from Barra de Naulta northward to La Cruz, mainly because of the small but real possibility that the system could make it up to hurricane strength just before landfall. The position is a bit further south, and the time remains rather short for development, so it is still doubtful it will reach that strength. However, it is enough for hurricane watches (not warnings).
Those in the area should prepare for a minimal hurricane regardless.
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WeatherNut
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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recon has found several instances of 60kt winds on the northern side, pressure down to 996mb
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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