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Archives 2010s >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #91479 - Sun Aug 21 2011 02:20 PM

Since it's much further north than predicted, (permanently?) and the pressure just dropped so much, does anyone know how certain it is that it will curve to the right?

The point being if it goes north of the lslands, it wouldn't be weakened.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91483 - Sun Aug 21 2011 02:38 PM

12Zs are all done running: The summary:

The 12Z models are rolling in, and the trend has a bit more eastward.
GFDL 12Z: Over Puerto Rico, Over entire length of Hispaniola, over eastern half of Cuba, Emerges into Florida Straits on Thursday, over Key west Friday, up entire western Spine of Florida.
HWRF: Takes Irene over Dominican Republic and north avoiding Haiti, avoids Florida well to the East, rim ends with storm nearing Charleston, SC
Euro: Over PR, Clips Dominican Republic, deepens rapidly at 72 hours out north of Hispaniola... Enters Southwest Bahams 96 hours out... stays east of Florida barely misses WPB Friday... Landfall south of Charleston, SC Saturday as a major hurricane... still running...
GFS 12Z: over Dominican Republic, misses Cuba, through the western Bahamas, stays east of Florida, landfall near Hilton Head, SC Saturday.
Canadian: Keeps system off east coast (brushes Outer Banks) ... Hope this trend continues
NOGAPS: Keeps it east of Florida, Landfall near Wilmington, NC Saturday.
TCVN: Keeps it east of Florida, but Landfall Charleston, SC Saturday
UKMET: Enters it into the Gulf

Overall a significant shift eastward in models, the Euro is most disturbing for South Carolina. This is better news for Florida, but really depends on how much of this persists. Irene still is somewhat disorganized (Telltale sign being it shifting center positions and the elongation of the system north to south). Really not too much has changed other than the odds of a recurve before the US is nearing 50/50 (still favors landfall, however), the probability for Florida has decreased slightly, and the probability for south Carolina has increased slightly. All of this fits into the Cone in the NHC forecast though.



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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91485 - Sun Aug 21 2011 03:11 PM

My fear is this hits in an area like Savannah which has not seen a substantial hurricane since 1947. There are several models hinting towards that general area

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91486 - Sun Aug 21 2011 03:25 PM

Quote:

My fear is this hits in an area like Savannah which has not seen a substantial hurricane since 1947. There are several models hinting towards that general area



The above post sounds like the models are now not in agreement. This could be a worrier to everyone on the east coast until it passes your latitude.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91497 - Sun Aug 21 2011 06:59 PM

Not as many models run at 18Z, but here they are:

GFDL 18Z:Crosses over most of Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, Goes over Key West, approaching landfall near Pensacola in Final Frame (Saturday)
HWRF: Misses Puerto Rico to the north, as well as Hispaniola, enters Turks and Caicos.. last frame approaching landfall Saturday near Myrtle Beach, SC
Euro: N/A
GFS 18Z: South of PR, through most of Hispaniola, through western Bahamas with Landfall near Charleston SC, Saturday
Canadian: N/A
NOGAPS: N/A
TCVN: Not Available Yet
UKMET: N/A

Last run done for the 18Z rundown.

GFS shifts slightly west, HWRF very east, GFDL west to Panhandle, much too big a spread to be comfortable with.



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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #91502 - Sun Aug 21 2011 08:08 PM

I am from Savannah and if it looks as if Irene is headed that way I'll be there, on Tybee Road. However, I'm not yet convinced that the strong ridge will break down,allowing the storm to miss Florida. Obviously, the next few days will tell the story.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91525 - Mon Aug 22 2011 07:27 AM

6Z Rundown

GFDL 6Z: Over hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, landfall near Key Largo on Friday, up western side of State. (Note it is already too far west and south of the actual track)
HWRF: Through Central Bahamas, approaching Myrtle Beach, SC at end of Run
Euro (0Z, no 6Z Run): Landfall near Wilmington, NC Saturday
GFS 6Z: Through Central Bahamas, Landfall near Myrtle Beach, SC Saturday
Canadian:
NOGAPS (0Z no 6Z run): rides northern edge of islands, landfall saturday near Tampa (Very unlikely based on current trends)
TCVN: Stays East, landfall near Wilmington, NC
UKMET: n/a


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91527 - Mon Aug 22 2011 08:13 AM

The out of line with the others GFDL has shifted back WEST to the point of coming up the bottom of Florida EAST of Tampa and then up the west coast of Floirda.Of note the GFDL HAS DONE THIS many times in the past being off from the other major models only to fall back in line over time.The NHC has shifted a little more east again.

Also of NOTE the GFDL the only way the track were to hold the system would have to go over the entire land mass of Hispanola and hati dropping below Hurricane force.In fact right now the system is west of the next track point of the GDFL.

While everyone in Florida up the coast should watch this storm and the GDFL can't be thrown away in time it will have to shift unless the system turns much more west.


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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91528 - Mon Aug 22 2011 08:50 AM

Quote:

Since it's much further north than predicted, (permanently?) and the pressure just dropped so much, does anyone know how certain it is that it will curve to the right?

The point being if it goes north of the lslands, it wouldn't be weakened.




They now have it approaching the Florida coast as a 2. Which means, from recent history, it will be a 3.


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: ralphfl]
      #91530 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:23 AM

Quote:

The out of line with the others GFDL has shifted back WEST to the point of coming up the bottom of Florida EAST of Tampa and then up the west coast of Floirda.Of note the GFDL HAS DONE THIS many times in the past being off from the other major models only to fall back in line over time.The NHC has shifted a little more east again.

Also of NOTE the GFDL the only way the track were to hold the system would have to go over the entire land mass of Hispanola and hati dropping below Hurricane force.In fact right now the system is west of the next track point of the GDFL.

]
Is this storm consistent with any of the models yet? It is impressive in size and the track that is on the left of the page here keeps getting further to the north I have noticed.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.

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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 138
Loc: East Central Florida
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91531 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:31 AM

What the GFDL seems to be picking up on is just keeping the Atlantic ridge stronger through the period, which would force it more west if it occurred. This is a possibility, just not the most probable one.

Basically the ridge line for the GFS around the same period is along the NC/SC border, and for the GFDL the ridge line is near the FL/GA border. Look at the 500mb plots to see the ridge lines. This Animation you can see the "line" at 84 hours out running through the Ga/Fl border.

In this animation you see the GFS plot, which in 84 hours if you look for the line where the "yellow" turns to orange, you see it pass near the NC/SC border. This is a good representation of the ridge that is being talked about.

The GFDL is already a bit off, so the GFS is probably closer to what will happen. The cautionary note is that the GFS has a history of under doing ridges. The good news (for florida) is the consensus models have shifted east again, but worse news for the Carolinas. This will likely change more over the next 2 days.

Edited by MikeC (Mon Aug 22 2011 09:49 AM)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: CFHC]
      #91532 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:36 AM

First off everyone needs to watch it.The only model that has it hitting Florida the GFDL is already south of where the system is.It also takes it over the whole land mass and going back down to a TS because of it.The GFDL is a good model but so far is out to lunch on this storm.The problem like a few have stated is how far north will the storm go.There is a ridge to the west and north of the system so in a few days the storm may slow to a crawl.The NHC has been shifting east on each update but that is not to say it will not go back west if the models change.

So in the end i think this will storm is going to get north and may slow to a crawl in 2-3 day but i just do not see any reason to go by the GFDL right now at all.I think Scott had it pegged the other day we shall see.

BUT IF IT WERE TO FOLLOW THE GFDL it would need to start going south and that is just not going to happen.


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: CFHC]
      #91533 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:41 AM

Good Morning All,

Been away since last August.
But reading Flhurricane regularly.

My wife and I are looking to move to the Keys.
She's working (playing with dolphins) at Marathon on Saturday.

What are the odds Ft Lauderdale Int'l will be open Saturday.

Thanx, Jim


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: CFHC]
      #91535 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:44 AM

Given the fact that at the very least it will be very very close to me,and the fact that it should not interact with land to any real degree,I will be preparing for a major hurricane.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #91536 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:53 AM

How about this:

Highest sustained winds that Ft Lauderdale's Power Grid
can withstand.... :?:


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #91537 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:06 AM

Bob you will be at least on the weak side if the models hold up and far enough away.As for the airport being open nobody can say what is going to happen on Saturday at this point.It could be sunny it could be windy that is 6 days away.

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: ralphfl]
      #91541 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:31 AM

the 12Z http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early2.png early cycle models are out and went way east.They have landfall around SC now.The trend is still East.

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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: ralphfl]
      #91542 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:38 AM

Thanx Ralphfl and Bob.

So I'll just assume that we'll be landing Saturday Hot in Ft Lauderdale
and that there won't be much road debris and that
the Keys will be open...

sounds like a Plan, LMAO

Like Lauren and Bogie in Key Largo


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: ralphfl]
      #91546 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:51 AM

I think until we get some G IV data into the models, it is still up in the air where Irene ultimately heads. Sofar the models dont seem to be picking up the strength of the ridge. I think tomorrows model runs will tell the tale after they ingest the G IV data.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: dolfinatic]
      #91550 - Mon Aug 22 2011 11:19 AM

That data is only for the current-24hr models in very near term movement.. whatever they sample will not be the same 24hrs from now... another trough will be digging in eroding the ridge Tuesday night-Weds causing a more NW path then N towards the Carolinas.

What I saw in the pattern "Friday Night" when I went out on a limb and said that when this makes landfall in 5-6 days(from then) that the Models depict the Atlantic Ridge stronger than what it currently was and alittle to far SW than what it really was. You see, the ridge was not quite as strong as depicted and alittle more NE causing the intensifying Tropical Storm to move WNW-NW instead of just north of due west till Haiti. Since Friday if you look at the models till Monday.. the Storm back then was forecasted by the models today to be around DR-Haiti in the Carribean.. this is a good 200-300 miles further NE than what was predicted by even the GFS and ECMWF cause they had the Ridge strength wrong and it was further NE. This is exactly why we always tell people to watch the near term models and not the 4 day or longer model runs.. also wait till a system becomes defined (really a TS with pressure under 1006mbs). Still bad placement and strength of that ridge is a downfall in the nearterm.

Irene should continue to move WNW with wobble W and NW but a turn to the NW will take place on Tuesday night-Weds then she will start moving more N well east of florida and georgia. There will even be a chance SC will not get hit and only and the outer banks of NC will feel more of a direct impact. Too early to say really.


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