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Archives 2010s >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91552 - Mon Aug 22 2011 11:33 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Since it's much further north than predicted, (permanently?) and the pressure just dropped so much, does anyone know how certain it is that it will curve to the right?

The point being if it goes north of the lslands, it wouldn't be weakened.




They now have it approaching the Florida coast as a 2. Which means, from recent history, it will be a 3.




Or a 4..


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scottsvb
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91553 - Mon Aug 22 2011 11:38 AM

Irene will MAX out as a CAT 3 or CAT 4 and ride up the bahamas or just east of there. This Storm is really a easy storm to predict. I can easily see since Friday that the ridging is NOT as strong as the models depict and this is causing the more WNW movement since it formed Saturday.

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TheOtherRick
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #91555 - Mon Aug 22 2011 11:49 AM

I can remember when the NHC always erred on the side of caution and over estimated the strength.

Something's up, lately they underestimate it a lot.


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peteferr
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #91560 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:04 PM

Quote:

Good Morning All,

Been away since last August.
But reading Flhurricane regularly.

My wife and I are looking to move to the Keys.
She's working (playing with dolphins) at Marathon on Saturday.

What are the odds Ft Lauderdale Int'l will be open Saturday.

Thanx, Jim




With the current track (11am advisory), Saturday should not pose a problem with airports . Very likely Friday could have Ft Lauderdale and MIA close down (they shut down with TS force winds by law). Strangely, I was marooned in Costa Rica for five days following Hurricane Wilma . They shut down due to damage. With a trip to Hawaii planned on Sat leaving MIA I have interest in how things pan out. Looks like Fla will miss the brunt but we are not out of the woods yet


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ralphfl
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: peteferr]
      #91563 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:07 PM

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early2.png again not sure why my posts won't show up in the other forum but this is the early cycle 12Z runs

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scottsvb
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: peteferr]
      #91576 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:41 PM

Airports will be open and fine.. 90% sure on that. Irene shouldn't be much of a issue to Florida as of right now.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #91582 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:57 PM

Average Position Error (in nautical miles)

Model Name 0hr___24hr___48hr___72hr___96hr
Average____19.5__95.4___133.6___149.8__181.8 nmi

Average Intensity Error (in knots)

Model Name 0hr___24hr___48hr___72hr___96hr
Average____3.4___11.4____18.2___22.1___25.2 kts

These are as of 12Z Monday Morning.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #91590 - Mon Aug 22 2011 01:43 PM

Too busy right now to do a full model rundown, but most models trended even more east, and the HWRF (which was the eastern most last round) went slightly back west (toward SC).

GFDL is not quite out yet.


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91596 - Mon Aug 22 2011 02:19 PM

Mike, Just posted the 90 hr. GFDL from 12Z, and will add the link here. Bad as it is, 921 mb centered over Miami...., I do think may still have shifted perhaps a few miles slightly eastward as well. Hey, maybe a few more runs and the GFDL will have it entirely offshore S. Fla. instead....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/12zgfdl2500mbHGHTPMSL090.gif


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ralphfl
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91598 - Mon Aug 22 2011 02:21 PM

Yeah the 12Z GFDL has done what it always has done in the past years and move little by little towards the others.BTW worth noting that this is as far EAST the GFDL has been on this storm yet

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91599 - Mon Aug 22 2011 02:30 PM

12Z euro is pretty far east of the official track, and looks like it is bending toward a North Carolina Landfall. will know more once the full run is done (It may change). GFDL shifted slightly east, and is still the outlier showing a major south Florida landfall. the GFS ensemble (as opposed to operational) shows impacts in Massachusetts)


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mcgowanmc
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: peteferr]
      #91616 - Mon Aug 22 2011 05:35 PM

And thank you, pete

What about renting a truck and putting gallons
of water in the back. Instead of a car.

Would that help in the Keys, or
would something else be more valuable
to take down from Lauderdale?

Curious,
Jim


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mcgowanmc
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #91618 - Mon Aug 22 2011 06:08 PM

Poster: scottsvb
Subject: Re: Irene Forecast Lounge

Airports will be open and fine.. 90% sure on that. Irene shouldn't be much of a issue to Florida as of right now.

That's bold, Scott.

Between you and the NHC now NOAA, I feel confident....

Reposado Tequila &/or Appleton Shots all around.
We're headed to Marathon.

Edited by mcgowanmc (Mon Aug 22 2011 06:10 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91619 - Mon Aug 22 2011 06:10 PM

8/22/2011 18Z model rundown (As it comes in)

GFDL 18Z: Irene stays north of Caribbean islands and southwest of Bahamas through run, Landfall Miami on Friday pressures in Category 4 range. Center over Orlando Saturday still with Category 2-3 level pressures, forward motion slowing quite a bit, Final frame, Sunday west of Jacksonville, weakening rapidly, but still quite strong. This run is east of the last run, but the forward motion is much quicker, moving the timeline up earlier Friday.
18Z HWRF: 48 hours out, slightly south of 12Z run. 72 hours, over Andros island in the Bahamas, with a pressure typical of cat 4 hurricanes. 100 miles or so sw of the earlier run. at 78 hours.. Offshore Miami about 80 miles still cat 4. 90 Hours... Offshore Jupiter ~50 miles, pressure approaching Cat 5 territory. 96Hours... Offshore Cape Canaveral 50 miles, still with solid Category 4 pressure, forward speed noticeably slower. (a good 100 miles west of prior run position). 126 hours (Final frame)... 30 miles south of Savannah, GA / Hilton Head, SC still heading north... slightly weaker, but still category 4 level pressures. Overall about a 120 mile shift west for this run of the model.
Euro: N/A (next run is 0z models)
18Z GFS: Irene Moving faster than before, 84 hours ~100 miles offshore east of Florida... (Slighly west of the last run's position). Sunday just offshore between Charleston and Myrtle Beach, SC. Sunday afternoon, Landfall near Wilmington, NC... Monday over the Hampton Roads area in Virginia .. Tuesday, over Philadelphia,PA (East coast runner).... over New York CIty.... over Boston Tuesday Afternoon, heading into Maine.... Wednesday into Canada... Not a pretty run at all.
Canadian: N/A
NOGAPS: N/A
TCVN: Not Available Yet
UKMET: N/A

Edited by MikeC (Mon Aug 22 2011 08:05 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91623 - Mon Aug 22 2011 06:39 PM

I'm still working on the model rundown above, but that 18Z GFS run into north carolina and riding up the east coast is not pretty since it affects almost every major city in the Northeast. Hopefully that one changes.

As a note only a few of the dropsondes and soundings made it in to the 18Z, 0z should have most of them.

The next model (0z) runs start around 11:30pm with the GFS.

I still wouldn't expect much of any official forecast track changes until the 5AM forecast, too many unknowns right now, but the sounding data in the next runs should help quite a bit.





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MichaelA
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91644 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:03 PM

That's what I am seeing in the 18Z runs - a very slight westward shift. We'll see if that continues on the 00Z runs. With Irene rapidly intensifying into a much stronger storm, the models are certainly going to be a bit more uncertain over time. The timing on the Eastern CONUS trough and Irene is going to be critical in determining exactly where Irene eventually goes. No one should be letting their guard down on this one. The next 2 -3 days are going to be very interesting.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91650 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:08 PM

Quote:

Since it's much further north than predicted, (permanently?) and the pressure just dropped so much, does anyone know how certain it is that it will curve to the right?

The point being if it goes north of the lslands, it wouldn't be weakened.




They now have it approaching the Florida coast as a 2. Which means, from recent history, it will be a 3.

Or a 4..




Or a 5...

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 22 2011 11:39 PM)


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91652 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:26 PM

36H 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

Well, since it went from 80mph to 100mph in the last 3.5H, I wouldn't bet on that.

Run away.


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #91653 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:46 PM

The reason for the slight westward shift is the upper air data coming out of Bermuda today and again tonight. At 23/00Z the 500 mb decameter height came in at 594 which is a 10 meter increase from 22/12Z. This is an indicator that the Bermuda subtropical upper ridge remains strong. Irene's outflow is also a contributing factor as her large size and outflow entering the westerlies will contribute to aid in keeping the ridge strong.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91664 - Mon Aug 22 2011 11:38 PM

Can't stay up too late for the models, but will do what I can...

0z GFS running now:
hour 0: Initialization looks good.
hour 6 ,12: same as 18Z
hour 18: slightly north of 18Z
hour 24: same as 18Z hr 30
hour 30: same as 18Z hr 36
hour 36: slightly east of 18Z hr 42 (Irene is moving slower than the earlier run)
hour 42: slightly northeast of 18Z hr 48
hour 48: slightly northeast of 18Z hr 54
hour 54: slightly northeast of 18Z hr 60 (nearing Central Bahamas), 2nd trough seems strong enough to keep it away from Florida
hour 60: slightly northeast of 18Z hr 66
hour 66: northeast of 18Z hr 72 (Irene is East of Grand Bahama)
hour 72: northeast of 18Z hr 78
hour 84: northeast of 18Z hr 90
hour 90: northeast of 18Z hr 96 (Well east of Savannah)
hour 96: northeast of 18Z hr 102 (Well east of Charleston)
hour 102: northeast of 18Z hr 108 (East of Myrtle Beach)
hour 108: northeast of 18Z hr 114 (South of Wilmington, NC)
hour 114: northeast of 18Z hr 120 (Approaching Morehead City, NC)
hour 120: northeast of 18Z hr 126 (Landfall just east of Morehead City, NC)
hour 126: Over Nags Head, NC
hour 132: Offshore east of Virginia Beach
hour 138: Offshore east of Delaware
hour 144: Offshore east of New Jersey
hour 150: Landfall Long Island, NY
hour 156: Over Boston, MA
hour 162: Over Portland, ME
hour 168: Entering Canada near, Houlton, ME

Ending here. Florida direct hit chances dropping greatly from the GFS run, I don't expect the NHC's track to change much tomorrow.




Edited by MikeC (Tue Aug 23 2011 12:34 AM)


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