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Archives 2010s >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91739 - Tue Aug 23 2011 07:03 PM

18Z GFS is fairly similar to the 12Z Run, clipping the outer banks and then a landfall in Long Island.

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ralphfl
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91751 - Tue Aug 23 2011 10:31 PM

As a Cat 1 at most if it makes it way up there but i still think the models will hold and curve it out.

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cjzydeco
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Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91759 - Wed Aug 24 2011 06:30 AM

Looking at the 500-850mb steering currents this morning, I noticed that the ridge over the Atlantic seems to have pushed farther west, nudging the col between two ridges back over FL/GA, whereas it had been more over the Bahamas. Will this prevent Irene from starting the turn this morning, maybe slow her down or keep her going WNW until this ridging retreats?

CIMSS Steering Layer 500-850mb - West Atlantic - 0300 UTC 8-24-11

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: ralphfl]
      #91760 - Wed Aug 24 2011 06:31 AM

Overnight model runs have, with the exception of the UKMET, shifted east, including the Euro. Most models clip or go just east of The outer banks.

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mcgowanmc
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91775 - Wed Aug 24 2011 12:07 PM

The Bahamas make it easier to track Irene.

Irene stays within them it's moving to the West.
It gets outside and to the East.

Last jog had Irene getting 'back inside'.

But it takes a 'couple of jogs' to make a pattern.

But the weather in the Keys should be beautiful this week end.
I love how clear the air is after these storms pass...


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Rob1966
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #91778 - Wed Aug 24 2011 01:42 PM

I would like to add to the record: the NHC (and FLHurricane) have done an outstanding job forecasting and putting out valuable information on Irene. The amount of mis-infomation and wishcasting out there is unfortunate and those on this site should continue to not be part of it.
I know i speak for many when i say THANKS and keep up the OUTSTANDING service this site is providing.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91783 - Wed Aug 24 2011 03:17 PM

As a note, the trend east of the models has pretty much ended at the 12Z run, they have all held or gone very slightly west.

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Ed in Va
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91791 - Wed Aug 24 2011 03:54 PM

For newbies on the site, a relatively small adjustment can have huge implications. For example, moving Irene from now brushing Hatteras to a point 50 miles to the west would be devastating to the whole OBX and would be a pretty direct hit on Tidewater Va.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91809 - Wed Aug 24 2011 09:51 PM

Yep, models shifting west. Seems those Bam ones are the orphan stepchild, but they've been right about this one, and one of them now has the Cat 4 headed right at me in central Florida. And the others seem to have that frame of mind.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91814 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:09 PM

Quote:

Yep, models shifting west. Seems those Bam ones are the orphan stepchild, but they've been right about this one, and one of them now has the Cat 4 headed right at me in central Florida. And the others seem to have that frame of mind.




I have to state that this is completely incorrect. The trend only affects how close the storm gets to North Carolina, there is close to no chance the core makes it to Florida or even gets closer than 200 miles. see This



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watchinout
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91815 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:20 PM

http://image5.flhurricane.com/images/2011/sbstorm9/sbplot20110824-1046.gif

this is where myself and the other member must be getting our info. You can clearly see that the trck of Irene has been handled very well by BAMS and BAMD. The guys at NHC and on this site do and awesome job but it seems as if NHC forcast hast not been the right track thus far in the model. Or are we reading it wrong?


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91816 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:21 PM

Well, I certainly find that reassuring.

I was referring to the Skeetobite short list of models. I was assuming they were more important than the average. Unless I'm looking at the completely wrong thing, (which is entirely possible) all those Bam ones just shifted about 50-100 miles closer to Cocoa Beach, with one of them (obviously an outlier compared to that spagetti) taking it right up to the shore. And those are the most recently updated, on that short list.


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watchinout
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91817 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:25 PM

http://flhurricane.bamffl.com/images/2011/sbstorm9/sbplot20110824-2059.gif
This is as of 8pm if you look at the past trck I assume that yellow is BAMS green is BAMD and the orangish color is a mix between BAMS and the UKMET model.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91820 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:26 PM

The BAMM does better with weak systems, (Ie when Irene was a disorganized tropical storm). They are not global models and fairly shallow. Once a system gets organized, they are pretty useless since a large hurricane does not qualify.

Usually you use a combination of the BAMM models and globals early on (neither are all that great, but the BAMMs are good for finding trends while it's still a weak invest or disorganized tropical storm). Once a system gets a solid center of circulation it loses its luster, while the globals like the GFS and especially European tend to do much better.



In reality the BAMMs aren't considered at all by the NHC once a storm is formed.


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: watchinout]
      #91821 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:26 PM

Quote:

http://image5.flhurricane.com/images/2011/sbstorm9/sbplot20110824-1046.gif

this is where myself and the other member must be getting our info. You can clearly see that the trck of Irene has been handled very well by BAMS and BAMD. The guys at NHC and on this site do and awesome job but it seems as if NHC forcast hast not been the right track thus far in the model. Or are we reading it wrong?




That's not the latest, look at the animated Skeetobite one. Unless I'm losing my mind, (and there's a rumor to that effect) all those Bam ones just shifted radically west, with the yellow one going right up to the beach. Close enough with a Cat 4.


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91823 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:31 PM

When are the good models updated?

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cguhr3
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91824 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:36 PM

don't see what you are seeing - but would like to know more... ps: BAMs have not done well here.... but willing to listen.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91825 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:37 PM

This link may help too see the plots and the satellite photo at the same time: Wundeground map Bam is already way off.

The most Reliable::
Euro approx 3:20pm for 12Z, 3:20am for 0z)
GFS 5:30 am, 11:30 am, 5:30pm, 11:30pm
GFDL approx 0z (1:30am), 6z (7:30am), 12Z (1:30pm)18z (7:30pm)
HRWF updates 00Z (12:30-1:30am), 06Z(6:30-7:30am),12z (12:30-1:30pm),18z (6:30-7:30pm)

Some models handle certain situations better than others, and it takes some skill to recognize what to look toward to vs ignore, and sometimes they can all be wrong, especially with the weaker systems. Strong storms tend to be really easy to model track when they move (if they stop moving it's a different ballgame) It just becomes a game of trends. There is a very slight trend to the west with some of the latest models, but in reality, I think the NHC's track is by far the best one.


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TheOtherRick
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91826 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:39 PM

The HWRF shifted west too.

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watchinout
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #91827 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:55 PM

http://flhurricane.bamffl.com/images/2011/sbstorm9/sbplot20110824-2059.gif
This is as of 8pm if you look at the past trck I assume that yellow is BAMS green is BAMD and the orangish color is a mix between BAMS and the UKMET model
This is what me and THEOTHERRICK are looking at and if you look back over the last couple of days it shows the colors of the models that were most accurately followed. Even as a CAT 1,2 and 3 storm or are we reading this wrong? IT just seems as of lately that it is startin to follow the UKMET model as you can see here.


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