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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing hvy rain, wind and tstorms over N MX and SW TX. Atlantic waking up.
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Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: scottsvb]
      #91570 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:23 PM

Hey Scott thanks for that.
I found this Navy link:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pr...ull/Latest.html
What does "CPA" mean?
It's showing Port Canaveral 82 NM
I wasn't clear on what that ment.

Thanks again


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: scottsvb]
      #91571 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:25 PM

keep in mind, 5 year average for errors between 4 to 5 days out are up to 250 miles either way. as far as some individuals calling fish spinners...i would just wait till we are out of the 3 day cone before i would go and do that. not to mention the shear size of this storm and the fact it might be major, consider nasty conditions regardless.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #91572 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:31 PM

Correct.. that is why part of the Cone is over parts of Florida. Keeps people paying attention in the near term. It will adjust more and more to the right.

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #91573 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:32 PM

the latest GFS has her making it as far N as Mass and NY?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTNA150.html

Edited by javlin (Mon Aug 22 2011 12:35 PM)


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #91574 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:34 PM

double post]

Edited by javlin (Mon Aug 22 2011 12:34 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: javlin]
      #91575 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:37 PM

Never look past day 3-4... It's a golden rule in the models. For example with Irene.. 2 days ago she was predicted to be south of Haiti... also GOM. It's also model trending and near term movement. Just go out to 3-4 days on the GFS and ECMWF and stay with that

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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: scottsvb]
      #91577 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:44 PM

I have a concern that given the relative weak trough and fairly stout ridges ( Western Atlantic and "Texas Ridge" ), that significant deepening of Irene itself, might be adequite to potentially bridge the two ridges, thus continuing to drive her WNW into the Florida Straights or points northward to about Vero Beach.

Latest GFS certainly would seem to confirm NHC's thinking to nudge the cone farther to the east. The G-IV flight later today should confirm or perhaps "shake out" incorrect / missing synoptics that impacts the GFS runs. Tonights 0Z run might bear this out either way. I've always enjoyed a good laugh with past NHC personnel regarding the NAM ( and NGM ) being directly looked at for specific TC forecasting applications. However, as an asset to measure/forecast CONUS synoptic features ( for novice readers -Synoptic: macro-scale atmospheric processes ), it remains one of several core tools in forecasting.


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: scottsvb]
      #91578 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:47 PM

Ah another day and still quite bit of speculation where she will go long term. Latest satellite loops like like she's moving more west in the near term. I have to say even though most of the models have shifted east I would not let my guard down from Florida north to mid Atlantic. Maybe the high altitude mission tonight will put better data into models and better handle on track by tomorrow. I just would not let my guard down since this will likely be a major hurricane in couple days.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: Beach]
      #91579 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:49 PM

Quote:

Hey Scott thanks for that.
I found this Navy link:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pr...ull/Latest.html
What does "CPA" mean?
It's showing Port Canaveral 82 NM
I wasn't clear on what that ment.

Thanks again




CPA is Closest Point of Approach. Or how close the CENTER of the Storm is to the City or Naval Base listed.


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Owlguin
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 64
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: Joeyfl]
      #91580 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:50 PM

Agreed, looks like it is taking a jog to the west now. If that trend continues, it could have implications down the road.

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: Owlguin]
      #91581 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:53 PM

SIGH again storms NEVER go in a direct line they do wobble.I was taking bets here at work when the first wobble west or south was going to come and i lost LOL.

And BTW i just looked at the last loop and fail to see what you are even talking about but we always watch the system but i do fail to see any wobble but the current motion.

Just to be 100% sire i again went back and looked at the last few radar and sat views and see no change so if you have another system of seeing this please let me know thank you very much.


Oh and again it is now again north of the NHC point which has been that way all along.

Edited by ralphfl (Mon Aug 22 2011 12:57 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: Owlguin]
      #91583 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:58 PM

Average Position Error (in nautical miles)

Model Name 0hr___24hr___48hr___72hr___96hr
Average____19.5__95.4___133.6___149.8__181.8 nmi

Average Intensity Error (in knots)

Model Name 0hr___24hr___48hr___72hr___96hr
Average____3.4___11.4____18.2___22.1___25.2 kts

These are as of 12Z Monday Morning.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: danielw]
      #91584 - Mon Aug 22 2011 01:00 PM

You are correct the hnc track is 180 miles west of where the models are taking it in 3-4 days so your errors are right

Edited by ralphfl (Mon Aug 22 2011 01:01 PM)


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: weathernet]
      #91585 - Mon Aug 22 2011 01:14 PM

The NOAA9 flights today will be sampling the upper atmosphere ahead of Irene; specific to address what many are talking about here...the eastward change in track is good news for FL but bad news for wherever its future track is likely to be now that the core will remain over water until what that eventual landfall is. The discussion released not too long ago does mention a decrease in forward speed. Between two ridges, a longwave trough or major shortwave trough and a strong hurricane to the south what sets up is referred to as a COL; an area of weak steering currents. I did look at the 22/12Z GFS loop and Irene will be with us for a good bit; however it is where Irene will enter the westerlies and that appears to be the Mid-Atlantic. That said, there will be shifts west and east as the strengths of the two ridges need to be ascertained as we go forward as to where the trough over the east coast will be as Irene approaches. The samplings will fill in the gap in the upper air charts and provide much better resolution both for the upper air analysis that include temperature, dew point depression, wind, changes in height in decameters. This too will provide input into all models. A FL landfall was for a weaker Irene; now a projected SC/NC landfall is of a major hurricane. It is way too early to project an exact landfall now that the entire coast is in play at this time. I will post later this evening a complete analysis following the 23/00Z package release. Irene is likely to be a major hurricane.

Edited by MikeC (Mon Aug 22 2011 01:37 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: berrywr]
      #91587 - Mon Aug 22 2011 01:32 PM

Here's a graphic to go with Berrywr's analysis.
The COL is a saddle shaped area between four pressure systems in this case.

High__COL__High



courtesy of CIMSS


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: berrywr]
      #91588 - Mon Aug 22 2011 01:34 PM

That data going into the 0Z runs are for the current midlevel-upperlevel flow.. but when that trough digs down and breaks the ridge on Tuesday night into Weds... the midlevel flow will change... so that Mission is just for short term 24hr movement.. it's not like the ridge will be there and no trough.

Only 10% chance of this making it to florida or less... and what would give it the 10% peeps may ask? Is
that Irene moves west in the near term... hits DR around 19.5N...weakens and stays West thru Tuesday night and exposes a LLC from the midlevel causing a more run up the Cuba coastline on Weds. Again.. 10% chance.. but it's the only chance for this to come to Florida. btw... that short term jog more W has been forecasted for days and days and it never happened.. so just cause it's jogged now.. doesnt mean much cause the models still show that happening.


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: Owlguin]
      #91591 - Mon Aug 22 2011 01:46 PM

Quote:

Agreed, looks like it is taking a jog to the west now. If that trend continues, it could have implications down the road.




I have to agree also on the appearant short term westward motion. Tricky thing is that none of the resolutions are comfortablly able to bear out where the center might seem to be. Perhaps reforming in some of the deeper convection? No doubt that Irene's inflow is ( or likely to be ) at least somewhat impacted by Hispanola's terrain to its south/southwest. Even though the Dominican Republic's north coast is not as "inhospitable" as the very mountaineous areas farther inland, convergence would seem to be impacted. Now, "if" Irene is truly trending westward in the short term and interacts with the island to a larger degree, well then Irene's general intensity, forward motion, etc. need be taken somewhat into consideration as it might apply to later 3-5 day forecast points.

My original thoughs days ago, were that Irene would pass to the north of HIspanola ( maybe scraping the NE coast at most ), however at the moment looks poised to possibly get tangled up there. Don't know whats worse, flooding rains and mudslides impacting many in D.R. as well as many impoverished in Haiti, or the prospects of a possible Cat. 4 making a slow motion landfall up in S. Carolina? Lets hope its neither...

Interesting note, though a very different looking ( and much weaker ) storm, didn't the center fix of Emily more or less make it ( and was well forecasted by NHC ) to just go east of Andros Island in the Bahamas as well? Looks a little like a pattern trying to set up for the season.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: scottsvb]
      #91592 - Mon Aug 22 2011 01:47 PM

Looking at the satellite loops, it seems there is something going on between the low level circulation and the mid levels, either it's struggling a bit or it may be attempting to separate or reform again. Recon is out there finding 988 mb pressure readings though. Irene still isn't well defined near the center, even as a hurricane (relatively, it still is pretty strong), with most of the convection to the north side of the center.

Hispaniola has had a history of odd affects on tropical cyclones (other than just weakening), and it may be related to that. Track/intensity are going to be a bit more up in the air until it clears Hispaniola. Still the eastern trend is the most solid thing right now.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: MikeC]
      #91593 - Mon Aug 22 2011 01:54 PM

It's important not to focus on the 4 and 5 day forecast right now as said earlier the margin of error is very a few hundred miles. The margin of error on the 3 day cone is excellent. Everyone from South Florida to Long Island is beginning to obsess on the point of landfall five days away. That is normal.

It's important to remember what the NHC says and that is to focus on the cone not the line. It's hard to do but it's imperative. If you are in the far right or left part of the Cone the NHC feels it could be there in 4 or 5 days. Time and time again the small shifts in a cone every six hours equates to a large spread down the road.

Many factors will affect this storm.. every "jog" west or east will influence the next track. The important point if you live in the Carolinas or Florida or beyond is to keep watching. For the people in the islands now or in the Bahamas this is a serious problem now...

Also, how much interaction she has with DR may have an effect on her as for speed of forward motion as well as intensity.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

A lot of factors will affect this storm, most far to the north of her.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: scottsvb]
      #91594 - Mon Aug 22 2011 02:13 PM

Silly GFDL, don't you know you're not "on-board" with the Euro/GFS Globals?

Here's the latest 12Z GFDL ( 90 hr. ) showing a 921mb over MIami ( Am pretty sure either the following 102 hr. or perhaps was the 114 hr, had Irene remaining intense over Lake Okachobee ).

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/12zgfdl2500mbHGHTPMSL090.gif

Edited by weathernet (Mon Aug 22 2011 02:14 PM)


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