Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing hvy rain, wind and tstorms over N MX and SW TX. Atlantic waking up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 337 (Nicholas) , Major: 352 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1406 (Michael) Major: 1406 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | >> (show all)
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #91790 - Wed Aug 24 2011 03:47 PM

Also the far western edge of Irene is just now coming into the long range radar range of Miami.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 423
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #91793 - Wed Aug 24 2011 04:58 PM

The Wunder Maps provided by Weather Underground are an excellent way to track these small wobbles as those maps allow you to overlay the satellite data on top of a Google Map view with NHC forecast positions shown. The only thing missing are LAT / LON lines for reference but with the NHC position markers you can see if Irene is on target or not.

41 mph gust at George Town, Bahamas where the pressure is 29.46 and dropping fast with Irene now 80 miles away. This location is just on the outside the "red" on Rainbow IR image indicating the core of the storm. Its always amazing to see how closely the wind speeds follow the pressure as a hurricane approaches.

While a Cat 3 Irene still has a small wind field. Hurricane force winds only extending out 50 miles. Compare this with Wilma (also Cat 3) at landfall in SW FL which had a 90 mile radius of hurricane force winds. At that point Wilma's wind field basically covered the southern half of FL from the Big O to the upper keys (all of Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County) with 75 mph + winds.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #91794 - Wed Aug 24 2011 05:07 PM

And here is our beauty:



Uncropped (1km resolution):
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Irene.A2011236.1505.1km.jpg

Larger (500m resolution):
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Irene.A2011236.1505.500m.jpg

Much larger (250m resolution):
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Irene.A2011236.1505.250m.jpg


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: Random Chaos]
      #91796 - Wed Aug 24 2011 05:20 PM

I've noticed that they did make a few changes.

Originally the track had Maine in the "H" reading meaning it would be a cat 1 hurricane when she hit their area. Now it only has Mass and the lower portion of NH in the "H" reading, and Maine is a TS Status. Any clue on what New England should expect for this? I think a major concern here would be flooding, and worry a repeat of the 2006 floods may occur.

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: JMII]
      #91797 - Wed Aug 24 2011 05:23 PM

someone asked for this site http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #91798 - Wed Aug 24 2011 05:28 PM

That change in Maine probably has more to do with the points being 24 hour points but only 6 hours having passed since the last graphic, than any change in intensity.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: Random Chaos]
      #91799 - Wed Aug 24 2011 05:34 PM

Quote:

That change in Maine probably has more to do with the points being 24 hour points but only 6 hours having passed since the last graphic, than any change in intensity.




Makes Sense. Thank you.

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 146
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: Random Chaos]
      #91800 - Wed Aug 24 2011 05:47 PM

Quote:

And here is our beauty:


Uncropped (1km resolution):
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Irene.A2011236.1505.1km.jpg

Larger (500m resolution):
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Irene.A2011236.1505.500m.jpg

Much larger (250m resolution):
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Irene.A2011236.1505.250m.jpg




Thank you so much for the links to these absolutely stunning and beautiful pics!

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2136
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #91801 - Wed Aug 24 2011 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally the track had Maine in the "H" reading meaning it would be a cat 1 hurricane when she hit their area. Now it only has Mass and the lower portion of NH in the "H" reading, and Maine is a TS Status. Any clue on what New England should expect for this? I think a major concern here would be flooding, and worry a repeat of the 2006 floods may occur.




There are two primary reasons for the change from "H" to "S" over Maine, as follows:

First, the estimated location of the center of Irene during the final period of the 5-Day Cone of Uncertainty from Advisory 18 is now further inland than shown in Advisory 17A , and as such, Irene will have had more time inland weakening, essentially as Random C mentioned above. You can run a historic loop of the graphic Advisories here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml

Second, and related to the first reason, Irene is officially forecast to have turned post-tropical by 2PM Monday. However, it is worth noting that this forecast is largely dependent on Irene being well inland at that time. Should Irene still be partly, largely, or fully over water, it is very possible that she would be more tropical than not, and as such, may still be a hurricane as of Monday afternoon.

As to what New England should expect, it is too early to tell for sure. Tropical Cyclone forecasts beyond 3 days are notoriously off by up to several hundred miles. As during all seasons, it is best to prepare for the worst and expect the best. Irene has the potential to be an epic east coast storm. Potential.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: cieldumort]
      #91802 - Wed Aug 24 2011 06:17 PM

Anyone know what is up with the NOAA2 recon? It was heading into the storm when it turned around, and is now back over Florida heading in the general direction of where it took off from.

We still have Air Force AF302 heading in from the east though.

OT: Energy propagation of yesterday's earthquake (click play on the animation)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: Random Chaos]
      #91803 - Wed Aug 24 2011 07:00 PM

That usually means mechanical or met equpiment problems, especially with the NOAA planes. But it could be anything really.

Added another satellite recording of Irene. I may record Radar if more gets into view later.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #91804 - Wed Aug 24 2011 08:03 PM

Latest Air Force Recon data is showing that Irene's pressure has dropped to 949.9 mb. I have noticed that Irene's well-defined eye has been slowly fading on satellite. I wonder if she is going to go through another intensification period this evening.

--------------------
2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01

Edited by WesnWylie (Wed Aug 24 2011 08:04 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: WesnWylie]
      #91805 - Wed Aug 24 2011 09:08 PM

Quote:

Latest Air Force Recon data is showing that Irene's pressure has dropped to 949.9 mb. I have noticed that Irene's well-defined eye has been slowly fading on satellite. I wonder if she is going to go through another intensification period this evening.




I had a link somewhere but can not find the Recon data/stats anywhere... do you have a link?

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cguhr3
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
Loc: Cape May, NJ 08204
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: cieldumort]
      #91806 - Wed Aug 24 2011 09:10 PM

Looking at a single source .. unysis... a jog to the west is possible @ mid atlantic region... your thoughts?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: cguhr3]
      #91807 - Wed Aug 24 2011 09:24 PM

I assume the European (EMCWF) model, that clips North Carolina bends back Irene westward and takes Irene through Delmarva, and up near Wildwood, NJ. That is a change from earlier runs (a bit to the west), which implies more threat to the Northeast. I do know that the NWS is expanding the release of weather balloons westward to help determine the strength of the trough in ridge in the northeast that may kick the system back west when it gets north of North Carolina.

Those in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, Hampton Roads/Virginia Beach, VA, Delmarva, Jersey Shore, NYC, Long Island, RI, MA, NH, and Maine will want to watch Irene Closely.

It's still too early to say that far away. I will say... watch the NHC's 11PM track tonight.

I fixed the link to the Abaco Rocky Bay cam on the front page, and also the RSS storm feed.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
DougBaker
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #91808 - Wed Aug 24 2011 09:26 PM

The 2nd fleet at Norfolk, va is preparing to leave in advance of Irene

http://www.digtriad.com/news/national/ar...Are-Set-To-Move


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
watchinout
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: cguhr3]
      #91810 - Wed Aug 24 2011 09:57 PM

Just noticed that as of the 8pm update the potential track stated by BAMS has shifted farther west, nearly brings the storm into cape canaveral before turning sharp east and heading for open water. Now I know that every other model is saying its not going to come this close to FL but if you look at the past track of Irene the BAMS has been the most consistent for atleast 2/3's of the past track. What is everyones thoughts?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cguhr3
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
Loc: Cape May, NJ 08204
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #91811 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:01 PM

thank you... will keep watching!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: watchinout]
      #91812 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:05 PM

Quote:

Just noticed that as of the 8pm update the potential track stated by BAMS has shifted farther west, nearly brings the storm into cape canaveral before turning sharp east and heading for open water. Now I know that every other model is saying its not going to come this close to FL but if you look at the past track of Irene the BAMS has been the most consistent for atleast 2/3's of the past track. What is everyones thoughts?




I will refer you to Ed 's blog on the front page right hand side of screen. He lays out the NHC positions and forecasts. Anything could happen but, the NHC knows its business well enough to keep us informed for up to 3 days in advance of a landfall. I refer you to the forecasting lounge to discuss alternate theories regarding movements of the storm.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: watchinout]
      #91813 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:06 PM

Quote:

Just noticed that as of the 8pm update the potential track stated by BAMS has shifted farther west, nearly brings the storm into cape canaveral before turning sharp east and heading for open water. Now I know that every other model is saying its not going to come this close to FL but if you look at the past track of Irene the BAMS has been the most consistent for atleast 2/3's of the past track. What is everyones thoughts?




Model discussion really belongs in the forecast lounge, but the BAMM has actually done horrible with Irene (see the history animatios). It tends to do better with weak near systems and not hurricanes. It can be fairly safely be ruled out.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 2 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 34615

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center