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Random Chaos
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Weather Analyst 
Reged: Sat Posts: 1024 Loc: Maryland
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We also have Tropical Depression 10 in the mid Atlantic. It's heading north and should do nothing but spin fish. Recon 6:30am update: Vortex recon about an hour ago found the eye to be 30nm in diameter, but the max winds out at a band around 45nm diameter. Looks like the ERC mentioned at 11pm is wrapping up and it's now trying to clear out the old core. Central pressure has been steady around 950mb for the last several hours, with an HDOB message within the last few minutes still at that level. 6:50am update: HDOB messages from AF300 found the strongest winds around 35 miles from the center at 112kt. This supports surface winds up to 115mph, matching the 5am advisory. Miss Piggy will be sampling that same region in the next half hour or so. 7:00am update: Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 10:49Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300) Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011 Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 19 Observation Number: 11 A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 10:24:50Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°08'N 76°18'W (25.1333N 76.3W) B. Center Fix Location: 65 miles (105 km) to the E (86°) from Nassau, Bahamas. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,687m (8,816ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the SSW (210°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 290° at 58kts (From the WNW at ~ 66.7mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the SSW (208°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 952mb (28.11 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 700mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Wind Outbound: 112kts (~ 128.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 10:32:00Z Maximum Flight Level Wind: 112kts (~ 128.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 10:32:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... EYE WALL WELL DEFINED 020-090 Every IR satellite update the storm is looking healthier right now. Eye is starting to become visible on the last image and is clearing out nicely. It is open south (rotated some from the southwest noted in the vortext recon), but I would expect that to fill quickly. The storm looks very healthy and very large. There is nothing to stop it strengthening over the next few hours. Track Majority of the models have shifted far enough west to make the hit in North Carolina rather than Long Island in around 72 hours. There is some divergence following landfall, with some models having the storm re-exit land in North Carolina, while other models drag the storm inland after landfall. This is still far enough off that models will continue to shift, and the storm could move east or west of it's current official track. Given it's track nearly parallel to land, a small shift can result in a huge difference in where landfall occurs, anywhere from South Carolina through Canada. Land effects on hurricanes tend to drag them to the right when impacting directly due to the spin of the storm and the land-based drag due to the terrain. However, if a storm grazes land on it's left side, as this storm will do, I am not sure if this will cause a faster or slower landfall. The models do not take into account this effect. The models showing the more inland track are the GFDL and kin, including the GFDT, GFDI, and GFTI. The GFNI and GFDN also make an inland jog, but not so much. Given the accuracy of the GFDL and kin models with past storms, I would not ignore the potential of these tracks. See: http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtim..._track_late.png Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Aug 25 2011 07:25 AM)
danielw |
Moderator 
Reged: Wed Posts: 3525 Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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With a 950mb storm and an ERC completing I would think that the winds speeds would increase to 125 mph or better in the next 6 hours. 950mb gives a Max Possible windspeed of 125mph. Storms can and do exceed the Mpw. But it's a rare event.
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4490 Loc: Orlando, FL
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Based on recon, Irene is starting to move north north northwest this morning and picking up a little speed, it'll be racing along by the time it gets to New England. Right now it's basically over Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas.
Random Chaos
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Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat Posts: 1024 Loc: Maryland
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Concentric eyewalls again. Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC) Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 11:31Z Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF) Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011 Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 20 Observation Number: 13 A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 11:11Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°18'N 76°30'W (25.3N 76.5W) B. Center Fix Location: 55 miles (88 km) to the ENE (73°) from Nassau, Bahamas. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the E (95°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 172° at 116kts (From the S at ~ 133.5mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the E (94°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 951mb (28.08 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,450m (8,038ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,442m (8,012ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye) M. Inner Eye Diameter: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) M. Outer Eye Diameter: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 116kts (~ 133.5mph) in the east quadrant at 10:53Z
danielw |
Moderator
Reged: Wed Posts: 3525 Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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For those of you living along the East Coast. Here is a direct link to Irene's Storm Surge Graphics. Please check it daily... or more. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at4.shtml?gm
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4490 Loc: Orlando, FL
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Irene's windfield is expanding, it may not be as strong in the center as a typical smaller storm, but the strong winds will cover a much wider area. Based on the GFDL in North Carolina hurricane force winds may be felt quite a ways inland away from the center near the coast, especially if the track drifts any westward. Right now Irene is about the level of Ike was at landfall in 2008, but larger area wise. Unfortunately, at this point odds favor that it will be a history making storm from about North Carolina northeastward through new England. Please take evacuations seriously, and heed local media officials. Most of the Northeast along the coast is likely to be without power for a while after it passes.
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4490 Loc: Orlando, FL
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Outermost Rainbands are affecting West Palm Beach and Jupiter right now, and will probably crawl up the coast during the day, but what they have now should be about the worst of it. The concentric eyewalls are doing some interesting things on recon observations, pressure is holding around 950-952 mb though. The wind field expansion may temporarily weaken Irene (max windspeed wise).
vineyardsaker
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Weather Guru 
Reged: Wed Posts: 148 Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Quote: If I read that correctly, Volusia County has something like a 10-20% chance of seeing a storm surge over 2 feet. Why so little?! With a CAT4 hurricane only 150-200 miles out should we not get a much bigger surge? Thanks -------------------- Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall)
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4490 Loc: Orlando, FL
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That's the base level water rise, it doesn't include wave heights.
JMII
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Weather Master 
Reged: Thu Posts: 477 Loc: Margate, Florida
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Looks like Spanish Wells, Bahamas took a direct hit between 6 and 7 this AM, yet its wind report doesn't reflect it... I guess the equipment has malfunctioned. Great Abaco is now in the eyewall. Beyond that is nothing but open water for Irene until she scraps the outer banks of NC late Saturday night. -------------------- South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
vineyardsaker
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Weather Guru
Reged: Wed Posts: 148 Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Quote: Thanks! Can you point me to a site which would predict how much storm surge + wave height Volusia can expect? Thanks a lot -------------------- Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall)
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4490 Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote: http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/sectors/mlbMarineDay.php
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4490 Loc: Orlando, FL
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HPC Extended discussion From here Quote: In short very disruptive to power and infrastructure in the Northeast is being projected officially. In addition the very large size of Irene greatly increases the storm surge risk along the coast of New England. (Perhaps 2 categories more that the storm is at landfall if you look at older SLOSH maps before the surge was separated from the Saffir Simpson scale)
ralphfl
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Weather Master Reged: Mon Posts: 435
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I dunno i read it says "THIS POTENTIALLY" not them predicting it will.Just saying.
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4490 Loc: Orlando, FL
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Appears that Irene's eye is going to cross Abaco Island fairly soon.
sailor
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Verified CFHC User Reged: Wed Posts: 11 Loc: cape cod
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In addition the very large size of Irene greatly increases the storm surge risk along the coast of New England. (Perhaps 2 categories more that the storm is at landfall if you look at older SLOSH maps before the surge was separated from the Saffir Simpson scale) Mike I am in Buzzards Bay MA and expecting the surge. Where could I find the "old SLOSH maps" on line?
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4490 Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/risk/index.shtml Is probably the best place. For current surge probabilities the link is Storm Surge Probabilities for Irene
mikethewreck
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Weather Hobbyist 
Reged: Wed Posts: 52 Loc: Treasure Coast FL
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Is anyone else reminded of the 1985 Hurricane Gloria (struck NC, grazed Delmarva, struck Long Island and CT)? Gloria didn't come quite so close to FL. I actually rode Gloria out at sea in a nuclear submarine (our boat was based out of New London, CT). We could feel her waves 300 feet below the ocean surface. Lost power at our house for several days. -------------------- Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo! Went under Hurricane Gloria!
Mike V
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Weather Watcher Reged: Sun Posts: 35 Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Quote: Wow, I did not think a sub would be affected at that depth! Mike V -------------------- Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina, Irma, Ian flood adventure.
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