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Archives 2010s >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92137 - Fri Sep 02 2011 01:34 PM

More of the models seem to show a westerly turn around day 5. Can you provide a little insight into the steering patterns that may develop after day 5? Just wondering if a strong bermuda high is forecast for next week which may drive the storm on an extended due western path similar to Andrew/Jeanne?

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Weather Analyst

Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: Primo]
      #92138 - Fri Sep 02 2011 02:43 PM

Some of the models are trending it back toward the West, but I think the GFS has a pretty good handle on it keeping Katia just offshore of Hatteras as she moves North. The GFS had the best handle on Irene, too.

As for Katia's strength, there is still dry air being pulled in from the South while the central convection continues to try to increase near the center. There won't be much strengthening unless that convection can overcome the dry air intrusion.



Edited by MichaelA (Fri Sep 02 2011 02:45 PM)

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Weather Guru

Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #92154 - Sat Sep 03 2011 05:52 PM

Looking at the 1 PM CDT NHC Tropical Storm Force Winds graphic, I got to thinking about what happens when two tropical cyclones get near each other. Could the Fujiwhara effect become a steering factor for Katia in 4-5 days? Which models would be best with picking up on such an interaction?

Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08

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Veteran Storm Chaser

Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: cjzydeco]
      #92155 - Sat Sep 03 2011 09:57 PM

That's a great image. Hold onto it and see how it changes.

A lot depends on how much Lee interacts with the front and if he gets cut off and how much rain there is in the piedmont/mtns.

Despite a slow moving center... there is such a huge area off shore right now that will remain offshore tapped into tropical moisture and could pump a continual flow of convection into the heart of the SE.

A lot of players and Katia just keeps moving further west and remaining weaker than expected.

It's a very complex set up and it's going to take some more reliable model runs and the actuality of what Lee does before it all comes together.


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Weather Master

Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #92158 - Sun Sep 04 2011 10:59 AM

Katia has been rapidly intensifying. On the last frame you can clearly see the eye. NHC has it up to 100mph

Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since

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Weather Analyst

Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Katia Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #92159 - Sun Sep 04 2011 01:14 PM

Katia really wound up quickly this AM. As usual, intensity forecasting is still a crap shoot, isn't it?

Still getting some dry air wrapping in from the S and SE, though. Cloud tops have warmed a bit recently.



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