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Loc: Orlando, FL
Subtropical System Landfalls at the Cape
      #92268 - Tue Oct 04 2011 06:25 AM

Update - Monday, October 10, 2011 - 1215AM
The strong subtropical system has moved inland over the Cape and weakened. Movement is now more northwesterly so strong coastal winds in northern Brevard and Volusia Counties should decrease overnight. Wind towers at the Cape reported gusts up to 75mph at the 54 foot level. When the storm passed over the nearshore buoy, the temperature went up 4 degrees and the pressure dropped over 8MB to 999.7MB, so this system did have some tropical characteristics. At 6PM the sustained windspeed at Patrick AFB was 46mph. Perhaps it will get consideration for subtropical storm classification in post analysis. It will be interesting to see what daybreak reveals regarding damage on the barrier islands.

Update - Sunday, October 9, 2011 - 8PM
Earlier today a subtropical type of system - with gale force winds easily at tropical storm force - developed off Jupiter, Florida. The storm is currently due east of Melbourne, and Barrier Island communities have experienced wind gusts as high as 66mph. I expect the storm to move north northwest to north toward the Georgia/Florida border area for the next day or two. Dry air to the southwest is being entrained into the system and there are some signs that a slow weakening process may have started and the winds should back down as the system moves north. Power outages have been reported in Brevard County. Most of the heavier rainfall remains offshore.

8 AM ET 8 October 2011
The low pressure system mentioned early this week is now consolidating, slowly, somewhere south of the keys towards over the Central Bahamas, with much of the moisture moving westward over the Florida Peninsula. Areas along the coast in Central Florida will probably receive most of the rains, flooding capable in some places.

Rainfall will likely approach levels similar to (But not as extreme) as Tropical Storm Fay a few years ago in some areas. Gale force, or possibly Tropical Storm like winds are possible along the coast as well. Inland areas in Central and North Florida will still likely receive excessive amounts of rainfall as well.

The system is forecast to begin moving away from Florida Sunday night..

The system has a 20% chance to develop into a subtropical or tropical system over the next 48 hours, as it is extremely disorganized currently, and is not being tracked as an invest.

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Miami, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track

SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Original Update
The first part of October still is in the peak of hurricane season, and with Ophelia gone and Phillipe on the way out to sea, the next focus is likely to be on areas closer to home. Although there is nothing immanent, usually you would want to watch the western Caribbean, Gulf, and off the southeast coast the most in October.

The only hint of something is coming from some of the forecast models, such as the ECMWF which suggests something may come from the stalled front or western Caribbean late this week or weekend that could enter the Gulf, but right now there is nothing to track regarding that other than a general area which includes the Western Caribbean and Southeastern to Eastern Gulf. close to southwest Florida. This area is likely to raise rain chances next week and this weekend and bring some strong onshore winds to the east coast of Florida. So this possibility is well worth monitoring later this week,

Phillippe will likely meander a bit longer in its current area turning sharply north in a few days and then back out to sea, it has a shot at becoming a hurricane when it starts to curve north, and likely will do so, but still will very likely stay well out to sea.

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Philippe Event Related Links

float17latest.gif stormplotthumb_17.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2011&storm=17 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Philippe
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Philippe

Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Philippe (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Philippe (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Philippe

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Philippe
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Philippe -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Oct 10 2011 12:21 AM)

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Re: Slow Moving Developing System Affecting Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #92317 - Sun Oct 09 2011 09:19 PM

It Looks like the convection in the gulf just a little off of SW Fl. is starting to take on some rotation of its own. Some of the models showed a possibility of this early last week. Should we be watching for something here

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Oct 09 2011 09:33 PM)

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Re: Subtropical System Landfalls at the Cape [Re: MikeC]
      #92321 - Thu Oct 13 2011 06:18 PM

Ok boys and girls...the show aint over. The system in the Western Caribbean looks like it is trying to organize. Buoy 42057 is showing some pretty good pressure falls here in the last 4 hours (1010mb to 1004mb). This could be a problem for the NE Gulf if this gets its act together

Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since

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