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Archives 2010s >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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Weather Analyst

Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #92405 - Wed Oct 26 2011 01:24 PM

The scenario Weathernet posted above explains why Rina will not 'bottom out" (deepen) in the Florida straits.
Looking at the fixes in the last three previous advisories gives me the impression that a NW to NNW motion (more to the right) is setting in today. NNW would keep Rina off shore. Based on current forward speed projections it is not expected to interact with land until potentially Saturday after the turn occurs which puts Cuba into play.
However, I am beginning to think this whole thing may speed up a bit. I think this is the only way Florida gets into any serious danger; as, if Rina increases speed to 8-10 and pops out into the southern GOM as a cat 1 and then turns ene to e, the probability of Florida being seriously threatened increases.
There is too much uncertainty about the strength of the High pressure ridge now influencing Rina's path to make e totally discount Florida as a potential land fall threat.


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Weather Master

Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: k___g]
      #92407 - Wed Oct 26 2011 03:50 PM

The latest satellite from the University of Hawaii meteorology page looks like Rina is starting to pull it together again. Of course wind speeds and in depth information about the atmosphere can not be seen from these public satellites. She is going to stay interesting.

God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.

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Weather Analyst

Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #92408 - Wed Oct 26 2011 05:00 PM

Track shifitng right (south) and lots of uncertainty into Saturday. Nobody has a handle on the trough and the high pressure system now to the east of the system.
Looks like some of the more usually reliable odels want to bottle Rina in virtually the same general area for her duration.


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Veteran Storm Chaser

Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #92411 - Thu Oct 27 2011 12:20 AM

I don't know. She looks good to me tonight, at least at this hour. I gave her one last look and was surprised she looked this good.

I also can't really find the strong front that was spoken of earlier. I imagine it will light up the radars and sats tomorrow but tonight all I see is Rina sitting there looking back at me.

The high will weaken. Upwelling should be taking some edge off of her. She moves slow and without a strong front she has nothing to grab her fast.... yes, definitely one to keep watching as she "hangs in there"


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