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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Watching Late-Season Invest 99L
      #92428 - Sun Nov 20 2011 10:44 AM

Update - Monday, November 21, 8:15AM EST
The weak center of Invest 99L continues to swirl in the central Atlantic near 26N 53W at 21/12Z with all of the convection displaced about 150 miles to the northeast by 50 knots of southwesterly windshear. NHC has raised the odds of subtropical or tropical development within 48 hours to 60%, i.e., the 'generosity level' has increased. Strong southwesterly shear will slowly relax by Wednesday morning so any chance for additional development will likely extend beyond the current 48 hour period. Upper level conditions become more favorable Wednesday and Thursday so some eventual development is possible IF the weak center can remain intact. The center is slowly drifting south in what appears to be an anticyclonic loop - future movement should be to the northeast.

Original Post - Sunday, November 20, 10:44AM EST
Invest 99L, with little current movement, located well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands near 22N 54W at 19/12Z. 99L is a upper level low with a weak surface reflection (1010MB) that has been drifting to the southwest for most of last week. Southwesterly shear has displaced convective activity to the northeast of the surface low. NHC currently gives the system a 50/50 chance for subtropical development in the next couple of days, but to quote a line that NHC often uses, 'that might be generous'. Strong southwesterly shear over the system should continue into the middle of the week. SSTs are about 27C. If the system eventually become subtropical, it should remain at sea.

99L Event Related Links

float21latest.gif stormplotthumb_21.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2011&storm=21 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 99L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L

Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Nov 21 2011 08:17 AM)

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