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West Caribbean low has a 20% chance to develop in the Gulf late this week, even if it does not more rain. for Florida/Gulf.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 225 (Nate) , Major: 243 (Maria) Florida - Any: 253 (Irma) Major: 253 (Irma)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2012 Storm Forum

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Yucatan Channel feature
      #92443 - Sun Feb 05 2012 12:49 PM

Interesting system centered in the Yucatan Channel today. Fair convection and what may be the beginnings of a LL circulation. It is detached from any frontal zones and over SST of 80 - 81ºF. It is unseasonably warm over Florida and the SE Gulf. Although there is some shear evident, it could, at a minimum, bring some rain into Florida as it tracks N - NE. In my opinion, the chances for development are rather low.

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Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Yucatan Channel feature [Re: MichaelA]
      #92444 - Sun Feb 05 2012 01:12 PM

The weak low pressure system is located in the Yucatan Straits just off the western tip of Cuba. Windshear is rather low and SSTs are about 27C. System has spotty convection and could bring some much needed rain to south Florida. Movement should be to the northeast to east northeast and significant development is not likely as the system moves into cooler SSTs.
ED

Added: South Florida Water Management District is calling this system Storm 90 as of 05/12Z (i.e., Invest 90).

SFWMD Link



Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Feb 05 2012 01:34 PM)


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 350
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Yucatan Channel feature [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92447 - Sun Feb 05 2012 05:30 PM

I was surprised to see this developing on satellite yesterday. It sure has some of the visual cues that usually cause excitement during the 'regular season'. GOM water temps are incredibly warm for this time of year so there is plenty of energy and moisture. Seeing LOTS of storms near Key West that might be indicative of a mid-summer day. This warm winter has also been quite dry so some rain would be greatly appreciated!

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3504
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Yucatan Channel feature [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #92448 - Sun Feb 05 2012 07:42 PM

Shame on Me. I had seen the 'visual cues' that you mentioned and totally discounted them due to the Calendar being Feb 4th.
Not to mention the transition back to night shift after 5 years of day shift.

Latest, 7 minutes old, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120206 0000 UTC

The SHIP model has it's maximum wind speed at 31 kts at the 24 hour mark. This time tomorrow night.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
645 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS...AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
LOW IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND A
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING AND HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...AND IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND WMO HEADER FZNT24
KNHC...AND ALSO IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

***********************************************
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
WRN CUBA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 25N87W 22N86W 20N85W
WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 22N87W...AS OF 2100 UTC.
THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 24N89W
TO 18N83W WHICH IS PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS
WRN CUBA AND THE SE GULF WHERE THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED. CURRENTLY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM 19N-25N
BETWEEN 77W-88W. AREAS IN WRN CUBA HAVE ALREADY REPORTED UP TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO WRN CUBA AND
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THE MOISTURE TOWARDS S FLORIDA. LOCAL
FORECASTS INDICATE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF S FLORIDA. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND S FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
SYSTEM.

Edited by danielw (Sun Feb 05 2012 07:44 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Yucatan... Keys [Re: danielw]
      #92449 - Sun Feb 05 2012 09:18 PM

This feature is really close to land. It's common to have subtropical system out over the Atlantic somewhere, but this close in to land makes you really sit up and pay attention.

It may be February but it has been extremely warm, the water is warm... an interesting year of mixed signals.

Alaska and Europe are freezing, parts of the country mild and South Florida feels more like April than February.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Yucatan Channel feature [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92450 - Mon Feb 06 2012 01:24 AM

At 06/06Z, Invest 90 was located near 22.9N 83.3W on the northwest coast of Cuba moving east northeast at 10 knots. Convection is not well organized. Windshear over south Florida is expected to increase to 30 knots by Monday evening and more than twice that by Tuesday morning so chances for additional development should be decreasing but some pockets of heavy shower activity are possible over south Florida on Monday. Note that Key West received 4.3 inches of rain on Sunday.
ED


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Yucatan Channel feature [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92451 - Mon Feb 06 2012 06:18 PM

The shear got to it today, so no development.

Had typical afternoon showers here today. That would be good if it were the first week of June.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 350
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Yucatan Channel feature [Re: MichaelA]
      #92452 - Tue Feb 07 2012 07:50 AM

MIchael, when I got home from work, the Tampa radar appeared like it would on a typical June/July afternoon with a solid band of Thunderstorms along a seabreeze boundary! That is more than crazy for early February! Of course, the rain missed my house, but poured at work!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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