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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Florida's Next Hurricane
      #92487 - Thu May 03 2012 11:39 PM

As of August 3rd, 2014, the little 'counter' in the upper right corner of the page will indicate that it has been 3,205 days since a Hurricane last made landfall in the Sunshine State. That event was on October 24, 2005, when Hurricane Wilma crossed over the southern tip of the peninsula from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic with landfall near Cape Romano. Since then, 43 hurricanes have entered the record books - but not a single one has made landfall in Florida.

A check of the weather records indicate that it is indeed very unusual for Florida to go for such a long time (over eight years) without a hurricane impact. This current stretch is the second longest period of time since 1851 without a hurricane hitting the state. The longest period without a hurricane in Florida was from August 31, 1856, to October 23, 1865 - a period of 3,299 days (over nine years) - but that record may not be accurate since the population of Florida was rather sparce in the 1850s and 1860s (and the 1870s as well), and a hurricane could have made landfall in an unpopulated area (hence no known records of such an event).

Here are the other long intervals without a Hurricane in Florida:

October 18, 1910 to August 1, 1915 - 1,747 days
October 16, 1999 to August 13, 2004 - 1,762 days
October 12, 1987 to August 23, 1992 - 1,777 days
September 4, 1979 to November 20, 1985 - 2,269 days
October 24, 2005 to ??? (as of October 25, 2014 - 3,287 days = 9 years and counting)

A Hurricane has hit Florida in 44% of the seasons since 1851 - for an average of 11 landfalling hurricanes every 25 years. The latest ENSO climatology update through April suggests that 1951, 1968, 2009, 2006 and 1976 are the best analog years for this season. Interesting that only one of those years (1968) had a hurricane (Gladys) that hit Florida.

ADDED on 5/27/14: Note that 1968 seems to be the best analog year for the 2014 Atlantic season.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Oct 25 2014 12:55 AM)

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