Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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CSU decided not to issue a quantitative (numerical) forecast in December because they felt that forecasts do not show any skill at the 6 to 9 month forecast period (probably true) but I think that a forecast is still feasible - if nothing more than an initial starting point which can be based on long range SST projections that are still being issued by NOAA. TSR did issue an initial outlook for 2012 on 12/7/11 with a forecast of 14/7/3.
NOAA expects the current La Nina to continue through the Summer of the 2012 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. They also expect that the SST anomaly over just about the entire Atlantic basin will remain neutral for the full tropical season. With that expectation, the best analog years for 2012 would seem to be 1956 (8/4/2), 1975 (9/6/3), 1971 (13/6/2) and 1932 (11/6/4). 1932 is more for likely track pattern rather than numbers. 2000 (15/8/3) was also considered, but rejected as a good analog because during 2000 a warm anomaly (rather than a neutral condition) existed in the central Atlantic along 30N.
My initial outlook for the 2012 season is for 11 or 12 named storms (I'll firm up the number in the Spring) with 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes - pretty much a normal season of activity. Primary U.S. landfall threat zone looks like the Florida panhandle westward to the Texas coast (all of it). In other words, the initial pattern suggests more of a northern Gulf Coast season for 2012, but that could certainly change in the next six months.
If you feel the urge, you can add your own initial thoughts for the upcoming season - and your numbers can be revised as often as you wish until this thread gets closed on June 1st. You don't need to provide any rationale for your numbers - unless you wish to.
Cheers,
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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The latest forecast issued on February 27th suggests that Neutral conditions in the Spring will evolve to a weak El Nino during the Summer that will become a weak to moderate El Nino in the Fall/Winter. Neutral SST anomalies in the tropical north Atlantic are expected to shift to a warmer than normal basin for the September through November timeframe. With the basin anomaly now expected to be turning warmer during the peak and the latter portion of the hurricane season, the 2012 seasonal outlook for Atlantic tropical cyclones now indicates a slightly above normal level of activity.
The expectation is for 13 named storms with 8 of them becoming hurricanes and 4 becoming major hurricanes. The best analog years are now: 1996: 13/9/4 2001: 15/9/4 1951: 10/8/5
Although no particular target area is indicated by the analog years, the entire East coast seems likely to remain as the primary threat zone for 2012 activity.
For those that wish to post their expectations for the season, this thread will remain open until the season gets underway on June 1st.
Cheers,
ED
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B.C.Francis
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I'm going with 16/7/3 this season. Also, I'm going all in with an early season named system landfall in the Gulf Big Bend area and a late season system making landfall in the North East anywhere north of Maryland all the way to Canada...I think Gaia is ready to give us a spanking...Where? It's all up to her.....Be Happy and Keep Smiling.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Latest expectation still suggest neutral conditions this Spring will warm to a modest El Nino event by late Summer and Fall in the eastern and central tropical Pacific. The tropical Atlantic SSTs are now expected to remain neutral throughout the hurricane season - and slightly cooler than previously forecast.
On April 4th, CSU will issue its tropical cyclone forecast for the 2012 season, and an earlier discussion issued by CSU on March 21st suggested that the upcoming season is expected to be less active than normal.
With the likelihood that the tropical Atlantic will be a little cooler than previously expected and considerably cooler than last season, a downward adjustment in the 2012 Outlook seems realistic. I've lowered by expectations to a more normal to slightly less than normal level of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin with 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. The new best-fit analog years are 2009, 2006 and 1968.
ADDED: 1951 is also a reasonably good analog year.
There is a good chance for an early season storm (June or earlier) this year.
Now its your turn to post your own forecast for the season - rationale is welcomed, but not required. Please post specific numbers for number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes rather than a range of numbers, i.e., 10/5/2 rather than 9-11, 4-6, and 1-3. At the end of the season we'll take a look back and see how well we did. This thread will remain open until the start of the hurricane season on June 1st - up until then you can adjust your forecast as many times as you wish.
Cheers,
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Apr 04 2012 09:25 AM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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CSU has posted its initial forecast for 2012 at 10/4/2.
TSR has posted its updated forecast for 2012 at 13/6/3.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Apr 12 2012 04:16 PM)
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doug
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10/6/3: cooler SST's and the now "moderate" El Nino which will hamper late season development. I will rethink after the 12th when TSR updates.
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doug
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doug
Weather Analyst
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TSR on 4/12 (rounded) 12/6/3. I'll check.
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doug
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ftlaudbob
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I'll go with 11/6/3
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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GlenJohnson
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12/6/4, we never really saw winter, so things stayed warm. Probably go higher, we're way past due. In the immortal words from Jurrasic Park, " Everybody hang on to your butts."
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MichaelA
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I'm going to go with 14/7/4.
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Michael
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weathernet
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New Season, already?? whew....., the older I get the faster time seems to move
Well, will take my stab at the 2012 Season numbers. Am guessing 13/6/2. Given the cooler SST's out there, am thinking they'll be less long tracking CV systems. Also think there may be a good deal more activity overall forming/moving close to the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, & E. Gulf.
Though still about a month out, Happy & Safe season everyone!
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Apr 30 2012 06:53 AM)
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rmbjoe1954
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I am going with 13/7/4
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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
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Im going with 14/8/3
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M.A.
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Im going with 15/7/3.
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jessiej
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11/4/2
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Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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In the Atlantic, the earlier forecast for slightly cooler than normal SSTs has changed to a forecast for slightly warmer than normal SSTs. In the Pacific, the earlier forecast for moderate El Nino conditions during the upcoming hurricane season has been revised to neutral to a weak El Nino. These trends indicate slightly more favorable conditions for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone formation, but upper air conditions are still expected to be less than ideal for tropical cyclone formation this year. 2006, 1976, 1951 and 1968 remain as the best analog years for the 2012 season.
In less than two weeks this thread will close when the season starts. You still have time to throw your hat and your forecast for the total number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes into the thread before June 1st. We'll summarize the forecasts at the end of the season and see how well we did.
Cheers,
ED
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GlenJohnson
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Quote:
In the Atlantic, the earlier forecast for slightly cooler than normal SSTs has changed to a forecast for slightly warmer than normal SSTs
Quote:
12/6/4, we never really saw winter, so things stayed warm.
What did I tell ya? Still think it will go higher, so I'm going 14/8/5.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I'm probably going to regret this, but with the Atlantic now expected to be slightly warmer than normal, and since your first forecast is often your best forecast, I'm going to revert to my original forecast of 11/6/3.
This is the lowest input that we have ever had on our early season guesstimates. You still have until June 1st to add your outlook for the season before this thread is closed.
Cheers,
ED
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riche
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Hope you guys dont mind a complete Rookie from across the pond joining in here!
I love coming to the States and the Carribean - always coimg over between June and September when the weather seems to get a little interesting so I always keep an eye on the depressions.
I am going for 16/5/2
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LoisCane
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Okay, I'll go with 14/8/4. Note I rarely ever do this guesstimate, however today I will. The four might be high if we weaker storms forming close in or long trackers that have problems stacking themselves probably but I think we could get there.
When in a "neutral" phase it's hard to tell if this is where we are staying or if we are going into El Nino. It's a phase.
Water is warm, the season has started early and for numerous reasons I'll say we will have at least 14 named systems.. as always time will tell.
Like to hear some rationalization for the numbers by people posting.
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