NPR16
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20-85 looks interesting Buoy data and ship reports....
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NPR16
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.p...ot=A&time=4
29.9 knots
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WeatherNut
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Looking at the visible shots this morning it almost looks like the whole GOM has cyclonic turning which is probably a good reason this is having a hard time consolidating to one area...also looks like the Anticyclone is centered over the southern YP...also noticing not a lot of convergence near the convection either. The ULL well east of FL seems to have stopped the western movement and might be weakening
-------------------- Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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NPR16
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I think there was one model that showed a southwest Florida impact. If there is a new center then Debby is not far off imo.
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weathernet
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Looks to me as if Debby is going to make us wait a bit. Tops are warming near Yucatan and still no obvious evidence of any surface circulation at that point. Plus, had just taken a look at surface obs from 2 different stations on NE Yucatan and saw no evidence of further pressure falls during the prior 12 hours. With the convection waning, it would be highly unlikely that any deepening will occur; at least until an new convective bursting occurs. Meanwhile, there still remains moderate upper level shear over the general area to the north and northwest of the Yucatan Channel. This would seem to be the inhibiting factor against the larger low level circulation evident on Vis. Sat. from becomming dominant at the moment.
So here we have it for the moment; a potential mid level center that is having difficulty working its way down to the surface over or just E. of Yucatan...., and a large more established low level center in the S. Central Gulf that is being hindered by the increased amount of shear and inhibiting dryer air this morning. Furthermore neither feature is going to get picked up by any mid level steering mechanism until some deepening occurs which basically means a fairly stagnant situation and certainly no rapid development. Models cannot be counted on at this time mostly because there is no clear consensus of where a center is or will be. It will be interesting to see during the diurnal max, where any new convection will start "popping" and then of course if it can be maintained.
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WeatherNut
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Its looking to me like a LLC is trying to form on the NE tip of the YP 22.5N 87.5W (approx.) Its just on the western edge of the convection
-------------------- Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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MikeC
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The latest and ensembles are keeping the system in the Gulf longer, and missing the front that would kick it over Florida, if that occurs, Northwestern Gulf, Texas would need to watch the closest. The CMC run aggressively develops it as it approaches Houston/Galveston.
Still models in general don't seem to have a good handle on the system, and if this reforms to the northeast of the Yucatan, the models will be off. So this is just one possibility, so the entire Gulf of Mexico still needs to continue watching.
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NPR16
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I agree Mike. About the doesn't always over hype the strength of a system??
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k___g
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Looks as if the system is trying to get more organized and is headed for the central Gulf.
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MikeC
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This system is still very disorganized with broad convection spread from the Yucatan to Florida, the models are just not reliable right now, and I'm having doubts anything will form tomorrow now, perhaps Sunday. The water vapor loops of the system show no real signs of what I'd consider organization.
This in all likely may be what most June storms historically have been, a mostly disorganized mess bringing mostly rain. I wouldn't go by any of the models right now.
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Based on the timing of the front to the NW and the ULL to the east this should be a western Gulf event.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Jun 22 2012 10:52 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Still a considerable variance in the model outputs - and until this system has a well defined center the model outputs will be quite variable from run to run. I still think that this system will eventually consolidate - and I still think that the consolidation will be a slow process. The 23/00Z run has shifted back to a Florida peninsula impact, but not until midweek - and the just might have the best handle on this complex system. It now shows two energy pulses and they both cross Florida. The Sunshine State is probably not going to have much sunshine for awhile and the potential still exists for a heavy rainfall event.
ED
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doug
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Good morning...the area most of us now agree is a low center has migrated northward and a little westerly over night. The present dynamic supports that motion to continue. There is an upper cyclonic circulation just east of the Texas gulf coast that is sagging to the south a bit, and the steering seems to be influenced by the flow around that. The base of the trough now exiting the east coast will miss this to the north, and as it exits a northerly flow will be enhanced in its wake. If this stays fairly constant for a day or so longer, then the ultimate direction for this system should bring the low toward Miss/La gulf coast. Lets face it this will be mostly a rain maker without much wind impact, unless it stalls in the mid gulf for a day or two, Most of us need the rain and this system should be more beneficial than harmful.
-------------------- doug
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MichaelA
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I can't say any more than what the main page analysis states this morning. I have a feeling that we will have Debby by this afternoon or evening and then we'll start seeing more definitive model runs over night. I'm still keeping my guard up just in case the eastward track verifies.
-------------------- Michael
PWS
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MikeC
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Current speculation, the is closer to target, but not for the usual reasons, more because it looks like the center keeps reforming nearer to the convection, and winds up slipping northeast each time. Model spread is crazy this morning, Mexico to Tampa and all points in between. If the were forced to issue an official forecast now, the TCVN would probably be it, (Near LA, and then slowly eastward along the gulf coast). Thus probably why they mentioning possible watches/warnings along the northern Gulf.
This storm will likely get no stronger than Tropical Storm strength, and some energy/rain may still split off toward the west just to make the euro happy.
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MichaelA
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I'm still seeing apparent centers come and go with the latest centered near 26N; 87.9W and exposed. The convection remains East of that relative "center" (unless there is something tucked in under the convection near 25N; 85.5W). I'm looking at the floater RGB loop.
-------------------- Michael
PWS
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MikeC
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12 is sticking to the same as earlier, over Florida. Nothing new... so far with the 12Z runs. Still clear as mud.
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MikeC
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Wanted to add this is likely going to go straight to tropical storm status once recon hits it.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Last few IR frames show outflow over the SE quadrant of the unformed storm. For a developing, not-yet-tropical system, it is looking very much like a formed system already.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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I am seeing low level circulation around a point near 26.5/87.5 exposed...A sheared system. Looks like some pretty quick cloud movement in the SE portion of the exposed circulation which could translate to classifiable winds.
-------------------- doug
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